Comments on: 1913 Redux http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141 Thu, 09 Sep 2010 00:01:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.1 By: Cheryl Rofer http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11492 Cheryl Rofer Sun, 28 Jun 2009 20:57:26 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11492 <a href="http://whirledview.typepad.com/whirledview/2009/06/still-not-1913.html" rel="nofollow">Rebuttal now posted.</a> Rebuttal now posted.

]]> By: Cheryl Rofer http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11487 Cheryl Rofer Fri, 26 Jun 2009 19:26:24 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11487 I'm a bit slow with the rebuttal, but I've just posted <a href="http://whirledview.typepad.com/whirledview/2009/06/turning-points.html" rel="nofollow">more of my thinking</a> inspired by <em>Nicholas and Alexandra</em> that will have some relevance in the rebuttal. I’m a bit slow with the rebuttal, but I’ve just posted more of my thinking inspired by Nicholas and Alexandra that will have some relevance in the rebuttal.

]]> By: Strategy and the Race to the Sea « The Committee of Public Safety http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11480 Strategy and the Race to the Sea « The Committee of Public Safety Fri, 26 Jun 2009 05:10:33 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11480 [...] posted on an ongoing debate he and Cheryl Rofer of WhirledView are having on the subject of Rofer’s [...] […] posted on an ongoing debate he and Cheryl Rofer of WhirledView are having on the subject of Rofer’s […]

]]> By: josephfouche http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11478 josephfouche Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:29:41 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11478 World War I was a conspiracy between the Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Count Berchtold and the Austro-Hungarian chief of staff Conrad von Hötzendorf to start a preventive war with Serbia. The younger Moltke then exploited the Austrian conspiracy to launch a preventive war on Russia. Then it cascaded. If there is any moral to be taken from the crisis, it is that powerful bureaucrats overly fixated on their own problem domain can bring an entire world order to its knees. If anyone wishes to believe we have somehow evolved beyond this threat, I give you the names of Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, and Tim Geithner. World War I was a conspiracy between the Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Count Berchtold and the Austro-Hungarian chief of staff Conrad von Hötzendorf to start a preventive war with Serbia. The younger Moltke then exploited the Austrian conspiracy to launch a preventive war on Russia. Then it cascaded. If there is any moral to be taken from the crisis, it is that powerful bureaucrats overly fixated on their own problem domain can bring an entire world order to its knees. If anyone wishes to believe we have somehow evolved beyond this threat, I give you the names of Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, and Tim Geithner.

]]> By: gholamentat http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11477 gholamentat Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:19:27 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11477 While I acknowledge that fewer warheads would make each individual warhead more significant, I'm not sure I agree that it would spur less-developed nations to push their own nuclear weapons programs even further. Currently, the main restriction on the nuclear ambitions of these nations is their limited techno-industrial capabilities, rather than a sense that "first world nations have so many, we'll never catch up." I think that in fact, more developed nuclear weapons industries provide more opportunities for espionage and theft, and at some level make it easier for terrorists, presidents for life, etc to acquire nuclear capability. While I acknowledge that fewer warheads would make each individual warhead more significant, I’m not sure I agree that it would spur less-developed nations to push their own nuclear weapons programs even further. Currently, the main restriction on the nuclear ambitions of these nations is their limited techno-industrial capabilities, rather than a sense that "first world nations have so many, we’ll never catch up." I think that in fact, more developed nuclear weapons industries provide more opportunities for espionage and theft, and at some level make it easier for terrorists, presidents for life, etc to acquire nuclear capability.

]]> By: zen http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11476 zen Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:55:54 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11476 Political-diplo historians focus on the "blank check" telegram in blaming the Kaiser but frankly, the alliance structure and elaborate mobilization tables that were foundational for war plans (Schlieffen Plan, Plan XVII) shifted power over war and peace from the monarch (or PM in case of Great Britain and France) into the hands of the General Staff of both sides. Wilhelm's frantic telegraming to Nicholas indicates that he had never intended a general European war ( though his Grossgeneralstab did and would have been happy to have gone to war with France in 1912). Once war began, the monarchs lost even more power to their generals - Ludendorff was dictator in all but name by 1918, Nicholas had little to do at Mogiliev except make the Russian high command less efficient than it already was Political-diplo historians focus on the "blank check" telegram in blaming the Kaiser but frankly, the alliance structure and elaborate mobilization tables that were foundational for war plans (Schlieffen Plan, Plan XVII) shifted power over war and peace from the monarch (or PM in case of Great Britain and France) into the hands of the General Staff of both sides. Wilhelm’s frantic telegraming to Nicholas indicates that he had never intended a general European war ( though his Grossgeneralstab did and would have been happy to have gone to war with France in 1912). Once war began, the monarchs lost even more power to their generals - Ludendorff was dictator in all but name by 1918, Nicholas had little to do at Mogiliev except make the Russian high command less efficient than it already was

]]> By: Cheryl Rofer http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11474 Cheryl Rofer Thu, 25 Jun 2009 13:00:29 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11474 Hey Shane! You're making part of my point for me: . <em>Kaiser Willy was the provocateur of The Great War.  If he didn’t have such a hard-on for one-upping his cousin Eddie (the Prince of Wales) and fawning for Grandma Vicky’s adoration, claiming far-flung colonies (like Kwajalein) and building a blue water navy, we’d never have had a Hitler….</em> . I'm not going to go into deterrence this time around, <a href="http://whirledview.typepad.com/whirledview/2009/04/deterrence-makes-me-crazy.html" rel="nofollow">have done it before</a>, but not exhaustively. . I waved as I drove by Colorado Springs this weekend. It was a bit of a hurried trip. I'll let you know the next time I drive north on I-25. Hey Shane! You’re making part of my point for me:
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Kaiser Willy was the provocateur of The Great War.  If he didn’t have such a hard-on for one-upping his cousin Eddie (the Prince of Wales) and fawning for Grandma Vicky’s adoration, claiming far-flung colonies (like Kwajalein) and building a blue water navy, we’d never have had a Hitler….
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I’m not going to go into deterrence this time around, have done it before, but not exhaustively.
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I waved as I drove by Colorado Springs this weekend. It was a bit of a hurried trip. I’ll let you know the next time I drive north on I-25.

]]> By: deichmans http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11473 deichmans Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:36:06 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11473 O.K., I agree that there is certainly a 'lower limit' on deterrence - provided your adversary is a rational state. Two questions come to mind then: what about an 'upper limit'? And if said adversary is *irrational* (à la Clausewitz's Trinity), then would *any* non-zero arsenal give them parity? O.K., I agree that there is certainly a ‘lower limit’ on deterrence - provided your adversary is a rational state.

Two questions come to mind then: what about an ‘upper limit’? And if said adversary is *irrational* (à la Clausewitz’s Trinity), then would *any* non-zero arsenal give them parity?

]]> By: zen http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11470 zen Thu, 25 Jun 2009 04:33:10 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11470 Re: deterrence . Numbers play a role - deliverable numbers - in making a first strike a losing game for whomever might initiate it Go below a certain number of warheads relative to another state and a first strike ceases to be a losing game and becomes a gamble. Some statesmen are gamblers by nature. Re: deterrence
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Numbers play a role - deliverable numbers - in making a first strike a losing game for whomever might initiate it Go below a certain number of warheads relative to another state and a first strike ceases to be a losing game and becomes a gamble. Some statesmen are gamblers by nature.

]]> By: zen http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11469 zen Thu, 25 Jun 2009 04:30:34 +0000 http://zenpundit.com/?p=3141#comment-11469 Hi Shane, . Kaiser Wilhelm 's decision to go with Tirpitz was a strategic disaster for Germany. The irony was that Russia was already becoming an economic colony of Germany, ten or twenty years of peace and Gemany's position in Russia would have been akin to that of the US in Canada. War and militaristic impatience upset the applecart. Japanese did the same thing in the 1930's when the region's most profitable option was to sell cheap raw materials to Japan Hi Shane,
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Kaiser Wilhelm ’s decision to go with Tirpitz was a strategic disaster for Germany. The irony was that Russia was already becoming an economic colony of Germany, ten or twenty years of peace and Gemany’s position in Russia would have been akin to that of the US in Canada. War and militaristic impatience upset the applecart. Japanese did the same thing in the 1930’s when the region’s most profitable option was to sell cheap raw materials to Japan

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