Archive for August, 2004
FOREIGN POLICY MAGAZINE
The new issue on the stands is thought-provoking. Unfortunately the articles are not up yet on the website for me to link but ” The World’s Most Dangerous Ideas” article is worth the price of the magazine alone ( even if it includes a short piece from the morally challenged Communist historian, Eric Hobsbawm).
TWISTS AND TURNS OF INTELLIGENCE REFORM
George Tenet, whose checkered career as DCI did so much to push the CIA to the brink of legislative dissolution, blasted the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) for his bill to radically reshape the CIA and amalgamate it’s directorates with other agencies of the IC.
The Roberts bill isn’t perfect but Senator Roberts deserves great credit for getting the debate oriented toward thinking in terms of the tasks of the IC and away from ” Czars “, flowcharts and bureaucratic turf. As I’ve blogged on previously, the number of agencies in the IC can change but the tasks we need them to do remains the same. This was a substantive proposal, not a gimmick, and viewed as a starting point, as the senator seems to do, it’s a constructive step. I personally do not think the CIA needs to be dissolved and reconfigured to accomplish revamping the IC as a networked organization but the network model is where we need to go to get more of the cross-disiplinary interaction that Tenet is lauding.
A final thought on IC is that it really might be best to have a new, relatively small but entirely secret operational unit within the IC to fight the war on terror. Intelligence agencies that are in the public domain swim against the collective counterintelligence efforts of every actor in the world interested in their doings. To assure that such an institution does not become a loose cannon or trample on the rights of U.S. citizens, oversight could be limited to the two intelligence committee chairman, the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority leader. No staff. No substitutes. A retired FISA court judge might also be a wise addition as the legal adviser to the restricted oversight committee.
IN THE LAND OF STRATEGIC VISION WHY SHOULD A BLIND MAN BE KING ?
Dan Drezner set off a furious exchange over strategy vs. “policy process” which melded with disputing the merits of Bush vs. Kerry, with the following question:
“Which is better: a foreign policy with a clearly articulated grand strategy but a f#$%ed-up policy process, or a foreign policy with no articulated grand strategy but a superior policy process?”
I have enormous problems with the arguments, such as they were, of the ” pro-process” side. For example, here’s Matt Yglesias:
“For the sake of argument, let’s accept the premise. It seems to me that this isn’t even close to being a hard question. For whatever reason, intellectuals have a tendency to grossly underrate the value the sound execution. When you think about it, though, it doesn’t matter at all how good someone’s “grand strategy” is if they have a history of unsound execution. Nor does it matter, in fact, how bad their grand strategy is. Unless you can clear the hurdle of “given a strategy, will it actually be implemented” the content of the strategy is simply irrelevant. Several years in office make it clear that the results of a Bush foreign policy initiative will have a purely contingent relationship to the goals of the initiative. A fucked-up policy process is a very bad thing indeed.”
First of all, because Matt has not bothered to define his terms, he frequently conflates ” execution” – the actual carrying out of decided policy – with ” process”, the bureaucratic wrangling, meetings, review and decision, that creates the policy. They are not the same. You can have a well-crafted policy, carefully vetted and monitored, that you fail to execute well due to lack of resources, skill or even simple bad luck. Likewise, your “executors” in the field – soldiers, CIA operatives and diplomats – can sometimes save an ill-defined policy or mask a confused process by seizing opportunities that unexpectedly arise.
” Process” and ” execution” are not in opposition to ” strategy” per se – strategizing is thinking on a particular, larger, scale of comprehension than the tactical. It is possible to execute either strategic or tactical moves though most often a series of tactical moves will fulfill a strategy. Likewise, you can go through a ” policy process ” to determine the parameters or review any course of action. Some of the bloggers seem not to have thought the subject through terribly well which is why their arguments come across mostly as disjointed debating points. You can argue that Iraq is a mess because the Bush administration has a poor policy process. Or that the Bush administration is terrible at execution. Or that Bush’s ” grand strategy” was bad or some combination of all three. What makes little sense to me is the proposition that having a strategy itself is cause for concern .
I think the root of the intellectual confusion in the ” pro process” side emanates from a basic logical error, rooted in emotional hostility to the current incumbent and defensiveness about the Democratic nominee that goes like this:
George W. Bush has a Grand Strategy
George W. Bush is Bad
Therefore, having a Strategy is Bad….or at least inferior to not having one…like John Kerry !
Like it or not, despite the protests of Brad DeLong, the Bush administration has a well-thought out and cohesive strategy for foreign policy. Tom Barnett has an alternative strategy, in some ways more politically attractive than that of the Bush administration but it also addresses many of the same important problems in a thoughtful, systemic fashion. John Kerry does not have a strategy. Some of his supporters would have us believe that a lack of serious thought about the structure of international relations is a virtue in a presidential candidate.
Here’s a good argument against sleepwalking through the next four years – Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Rwanda and North Korea – how well did events go the last time America’s foreign policy was run by a bureaucratic operating system marked ” by the seat of our pants ” ? Then add to that list Iraq, Iran, al Qaida, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Colombia and Venezuela.
Now how do you feel about a candidate for president who has no idea of where to go but claims he can get us there faster ?
Perhaps not having ” a policy process” to develop a strategy is also ” a very bad thing indeed “.
UPDATE: Jeff at Caerdroia weighs in on strategy, execution and politics. Note carefully his remarks regarding the State Department. Most Secretaries of State, even while generally praising their foreign service people, would be quick to agree. A number of them, Kissinger and Schultz come to mind, have written memoirs complaining about heads of area desks and assistant secretaries who went off ” doing deals on their own “.
GREAT LINKS I DON’T HAVE THE TIME TO BLOG ABOUT AT LENGTH
A multicultural fascist gets what she deserves. How the wacky Left really feels about John Kerry. Michael Totten digs at the latest anti-American thug that leftists want to crown as the ” Friend of the People”. Niall Ferguson’s vision of ” A world without power “ – as a parenthetical aside, Ferguson is one of three Brit’s I’d love to see in the Cabinet ( ours, not Tony Blair’s), were such a thing possible, as long as we were at war. The other two are John Keegan and Christopher Hitchens. I’m not really sure what post I’d want Hitchens at but it sure would be fun watching his press conferences.