CENTCOM Public Affairs “

So CENTCOM and the IC aren’t backtracking.

I’m not qualified to evaluate Cole’s comments on the nuances of Arabic, though I suppose Zawahiri using a ” Shiite style” greeting might symbolically reinforce the message to not provoke a civil war with the Iraqi Shiite community. That however is my really going out on a limb. As I see this letter analytically I have the following conclusions:

Points in Favor of Authenticity:

Good strategic advice to Zarqawi that is also in al Qaida’s interests.

Demonstrates concern about Zarqawi’s rising prominence in the Salafi-Jihadi lunatic community. Attempt to reassert primacy. Accurate assessment of Zarqawi’s ghoulish tactics.

Consistent with Zawahiri’s previous style – such as I can discern through translated material.

Bush administration does not need any gaffes right now for domestic political reasons – especially in regard to the war. They would only push to release something that had ” high confidence” and would not be likely to blow up in their faces.

Points Against Authenticity:

Advice is also strongly in the interests of the Shiite community in Iraq and Iran.

Rattling a tin cup for $ 100 grand by Zawahiri – conveniently humiliating ( and amusing).

Timing. Wouldn’t an anti-beheading message have been a sensible response after Nick Berg and not long after the Western media lost interest?

There you have it.

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