WHY BARNETT AND ROBB SEE DIFFERENT CHINA PATTERNS

Link preface:

“No Longer a One-Sided Fight To Demonize China” and “ Perfect NYT Trifecta” by Dr. Barnett

“Fooling Yourself” by John Robb

” The Globalization Bull in the China Shop” and ” Will China’s New Left be a Force to be Reckoned With?” by Zenpundit

“China’s Time Bombs ” , ” China’s Time Bombs: Gray China“, ” China’s Time Bomb: One More Word on The Pension System“, ” China’s Time Bombs: The Banking System” by Dave Schuler of The Glittering Eye

“Post Communist China” by Simon of Simon World

President Bush’s much publicized trip to China does not have the austere Cold War gravity of the Soviet-American summits or the epochal significance of Richard Nixon’s flight to Beijing but the normality itself is an important sign. The leaders of China and the United States are trying to navigate a relationship of significant magnitude and one with enormous room for future positive growth – but they are doing so bereft of mutual understandings on many important subjects in bilateral and international relations ranging from Taiwan to proliferation of WMD technology.

Sino-American relations are really at a critical moment as we stand at the root of a multifaceted decision tree whose branches spread outward into a fog of future scenarios we cannot clearly discern. Part of the problem is the paradoxical position of the Chinese state which is strong and weak, resililient and fragile, resurgent and fading all at once makes gaming China’s outcomes difficult at best. Minxin Pei described China’s elite in Foreign Policy in these terms:

“But China’s isn’t just any government. It is one that rests on fragile political foundations, little rule of law, and corrupt governance. Worse, it has consistently placed the highest value on economic growth and viewed all demands for curbing its discretion and power as threats to its goal of rapid modernization. The result? Social deficits in education, public health, and environmental protection. But it is hardly surprising, since promoting high growth advances the careers of government officials. Thus, China’s elites devote most of their resources to building glitzy shopping malls, factories, and even Formula One racing tracks, while neglecting social investments with long-term returns. So for those who wonder how, if China’s political system is so rotten, it can deliver robust growth year after year, the answer is that it delivers robust growth year after year, in part, because it is so rotten.

But the Chinese Communist Party knows that the people will tolerate only so much rot. Corruption is a rising concern. The party’s inability to police its own officials, many of whom are now engaged in unrestrained looting of public assets, is one of Beijing’s greatest worries. These regime insiders have effectively privatized the power of the state and use it to advance personal interests. Their loyalty to the party is questionable, if it exists at all. The accelerating effect on the party’s demise resembles that of a bank run; more and more insiders cannot wait to cash in their investment in the party.”

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