Of quantity and intensity: the case of the Sufiyan

October 28th, 2012 by Charles Cameron

in Abu Musab al Suri’s terms, from Syria via Palestine, Egypt, and the Hijaz, to Mecca – but with the added intensity that apocalyptic war brings with it.

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Posted in Apocalyptic, iran, iraq, Islam, Israel, Lebanon, Mahdist, saudi arabia, syria, Uncategorized | 3 comments

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  1. larrydunbar:

    October 28th, 2012 at 4:35 am

    Your diagram is a step. The rise is in the intensity of issue and the run is the breadth of the issue. I think we could call it a time-step, as time is in the breadth of the issue and force is in the intensity of the issue.

    *
    And then I am referencing the OODA loop as time-steps that moves non-linearly towards a gap between Decision and Action.

    *
    I only say this because I am trying to fit your time-step within a OODA loop, and it seems to fall within Observation, which means to me that we got a long ways to go.

    *
    The OODA is a non-linear movement (perhaps religious movement) with most of the potential of the distribution in Observed, but still with approximately 70% in Orientation.

    *
    So, by my way of thinking, there is still 70% left in both time and distance before this end-time reaches the gap between Decision and Action 🙂 So there is a lot left out of your diagram.

    *
    For instance the Maghreb.  

    *
    While the US is slowly understanding that they are about the only people in the Middle East and beyond who thinks of the US as a superpower, any force that is able to oppose that power is a force to be reckoned with, be it North Korea, the government that is now in Iraq and Afghanistan, or a brigade of soldiers taking down the US embassy in Libya. 

    So while the forces in Mali (not sure Mali is a part of the Maghreb), Morocco, Libya and others of the Maghreb are slow to move, considering the Arab Spring, they represent a potential that should not be ignored. 

    *
    Perhaps your step should have a run that includes the west of Egypt as well.  

  2. Charles Cameron:

    October 28th, 2012 at 7:02 pm

    See also (for the broader situation, not the Sufyan) Joshua Landis’s post Syrian War Spillover in Iraq Will Be Much Worse than in Lebanon

  3. Mr. X:

    October 29th, 2012 at 3:15 am

    Finally some reality instead of neocon rainbows and sunshine and no Syrian hostility to Israel/threats to the Golan Heights after Assad koolaid.