In the former case ” decentralization” needed for ” long term stability” advocated by Robb is little else than the very connectivity that Robb argues that requires a greater dampening capacity on the part of the system ( incidentally, Robb is correct that the interconnectivity yielded by globalization also makes the system more vulnerable to perturbations and rogue feedback. I outlined a similar thesis in my review of system perturbation rule sets). The systemic dampening capacity Robb asserts is needed can only be established by:

1. Better governance in Gap states – something that in extreme cases will involve ” exporting security” through system administration intervention ( abstaining from intervention does not mean an absence of “rogue feedback”, as Afghanistan under Taliban rule proved).

2. A new rule-set consensus being implemented among the Core states whose economic dynamism drives the global market’s destabilizing high performance characteristics. Primarily this is the realm of international economic diplomacy, rationalizing market effciency while setting up breakers to interrupt potential domino effect transnational market collapse in cases of panic, natural or man-made disasters.

Can the system be stressed by a series of smaller shocks to a ” tipping point”, at least regionally, as Robb argues? Yes, I think that is certainly possible but we need to remember that in a dynamic system it isn’t simply the centrifugal, disintegrating, entropic or negative events that count against a status quo but those events in relation to the centripetal, integrating, nonzero sum or positive events happening simultaneously. This is why complex systems are notoriously difficult to game out without relying on greatly simplified models – the mathematical predictability of the model comes at the cost of varying from reality. Even supercomputer modelling of, say,weather patterns or the stock market cannot produce reliable outcomes, being thwarted by the sheer complexity and the dynamic state of the global market.

The disruptive effects – political, economic and moral – that Robb worries about and encapsulates as his strategy of Global Guerillaism are quite real and are not to be dismissed lightly. In any system, the devolution toward entropy will be present but these forces are not the only ones driving mankind and the evolutionary and creative phenomena that add value to our civilization have a powerful logic of their own.

UPDATE:

Chirol at Coming Anarchy has his own take on Robb’s post, leaning toward…ahem..a coming anarchy.

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