Dr. Barnett has the call right that Iran’s leadership, for the first time since the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, is speaking with one voice and is asking for negotiatons with the United States. Unfortunately, their mouthpiece also gives regular and frequent examples of disturbing nuttiness, including veiled threats of nuclear genocide and ethnic cleansing. Something that Israel at least finds difficult to disregard. Nukes are not Saddam’s Scuds.
So the question here is this Iranian rhetoric simply high octane ideological vapors like Mao’s regime was churning out in public even as Zhou Enlai hosted Henry Kissinger in private ? Or is Ahmadinejad sincere in his wackier beliefs but is bending to the will of the unified clerical establishment until he can make himself their master ? Both ? Neither ?
I can’t answer those questions but I think we have nothing to fear from negotiations so long as we keep our powder dry. One useful aspect about Iraq is that the world pretty much believes now that uncontrollable consequences won’t stop the Bush administration from making a major military move on Iran. The Iranian leadership seems to believe that.
And they should.
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Dan tdaxp:
May 31st, 2006 at 7:47 am
Are the mullahs really that weak against Ahmedinejad? I remember Ahmedinejad had terrible trouble getting his pick for Oil Minister through the parliament — that doesn’t sound like a strongmen.
Dan tdaxp
mark:
May 31st, 2006 at 10:17 pm
He did but that’s because the Mullahocracy is grafting the oil revenues.