Dan tdaxp:

July 27th, 2007 at 12:40 pm

To qualify as a superempowered individual, the actor must be able to initiate a destructive event

Why? The superempowerd individual comes out of Friedman’s “Lexus and the Olive Tree,” and he uses it both positively and negatively.

Dave Schuler:

July 27th, 2007 at 1:33 pm

Sociopaths don’t spring forth fully grown like Athena from the brow of Zeus, consequently, I think there are prerequisites that go a little beyond the defining characteristics you list above, Mark.

For example, the absence of a belief system that strongly discourages such behaviors or, indeed, a belief system that can be construed, however improperly, as encouraging such behaviors would seem to me to be a requirement. I don’t think there’s any substitute for believing in eternal damnation.

Secondly, a social environment in which isolation is idealized is important, too. Fewer prophets and more disciples. More John Ford, less Ayn Rand.

A bureaucracy disposed to overlook problems when they’re small and manageable may be important, too. Note that Ted Kaczynski was enabled for decades by family, friends, and school systems before he became the Unabomber.

Why was Osama bin Laden Osama bin Laden? I can’t help but think that a social milieu in which wealth and power were seen as the direct favor of God (rather than something that developed out of interaction with other people) played a role.

Fabius Maximus:

July 27th, 2007 at 1:41 pm

The roots — or earliest examples and greatest development — of superempowered individuals are found in science fiction. See Verne’s “The Master of the World”, the various Mad Scientists of 1930’s Superman comic books. Oddly, has the Joint Chiefs have learned about this danger, this motif is no longer popular in sci fi & comic books.

Before we pop our mental corks with worry, ignoring far more pressing threats, we might wait for a real-world instance to appear.

The unabomber was a pest in a Nation where 50,000 die each year in auto accidents, let along a world of so many billions.

Oil prices are zooming. The US dollar, bedrock of our status as a superpower, is only 3% above its all-time lows (measured by the Fed’s major currency index). We’re trapped in Iraq, our military slowly eroding away.

There are more serious things about which to worry.

mark:

July 27th, 2007 at 2:41 pm

Hi Dan,

I think the vast majority of exceptionally intelligent and creative ppl are basically nice, or at least, not ill-intentioned toward the rest of us. So yes, the positive ones will be the rule, not the ones who “declare war on the world” – but the latter are the ones who will cause problems.

Hi Dave,

I would agree that ideologies, secular and religious moral codes would act as inhibitors (or incentives). Cults and tightly-knit extremist political groups can make a virtue of their alienation/isolation. Some ppl can also “feel” completely and deeply alienated while superficially appearing to be fully integrated members of society with families, jobs, etc.

Hi FM

Why worry about peak oil when our global refinery capacity and petroleum infrastructure is inadequate for the demand we have now ? We worry because eventualities should be considered in the long as welll as short term.

So yes, there are more pressing problems but that doesn’t mean that SEI’s will be no more than a nuisance.

deichmans:

July 27th, 2007 at 2:46 pm

I differ with FabMax in that I believe this *is* a topic worthy of dialog. Technology and integrated communications allow SEIs (or small collectives of SEIs) to invoke massive damage on our infrastructure. It is far more prudent to consider methods of containing (or constraining) them before we have “case studies” to review.

That said, I am skeptical of your second solution. While some Unabombers may simply need adoration and affection to rejoin “society”, most will eschew such comforts.

I believe the reason Kaczynski was able to evade the FBI for so long was because of his isolationist penury. Our civil defense infrastructures are optimized to protect us against the threats they can see — not the threats that are invisible to the Matrix.

This is the genius behind Steve DeAngelis’s vision of Enterprise Resilience: can terrorism be made irrelevant by inoculating our systems to allow adaptability and continuity, and to protect the value chain in the face of adversity?

Absent a science officer like Mr. Spock who can peer into a sensor display and determine the number of life forms on a planet, and ostensibly their intentions, Enterprise Resilience may be the next best thing…

Fabius Maximus:

July 27th, 2007 at 3:13 pm

There is considerable refining capacity under construction (e.g., India, Middle East). Just not in the US. Which makes sense, as North American production has peaked.

Demand has surged since 2003. Caught the industry by surprise, as did the increased role of heavy/sour oil in the mix. But the response is well under way, and much new capacity will come online in the next 5 years.

This means, of course, that the US will be importing more oil products than crude — another industrial process we have outsourced abroad.

Much of the current problems in the US result from the EPA’s massive increase in regulations and increased standards for refinery safety and inspections. Probably just short-term factors.

Arherring:

July 27th, 2007 at 3:21 pm

All those 5GW links at the end and barely a single mention of 5GW in the article (one that I would argue is incorrect).

To me this begs a question. Are SEIs just a facet of 5GW or is 5GW an expression of SEIs and SEIs alone? What is the relationship between the two?

mark:

July 27th, 2007 at 10:22 pm

Hi Arherring,

IMHO, SEI are/will be a facet of 5GW, though what proportion of 5GW they may represent is unknown.

I suppose a case can be made, William Lind might make it, that they are the culmination of 4GW’s devolution of power to the lowest common denominator. I disagree. Once you reach the level of an individual or even a very small group, much of the importance of the moral level of warfare and legitimacy becomes completely irrelevant. Most SEI’s will not or would not intend to survive the cataclysms they wish to set off.

Pangloss:

July 28th, 2007 at 12:36 am

The Superempowered Individual (tm Friedman?) is just a capable, megalomaniacal sociopath. It’s the great man theory of history in different language. Do not mistake me, I think the great man theory is largely correct. Europe wouldn’t have gotten to where it is without Napoleon turning France into a fascist empire and Marx codifying the Terror into doctrine.

For instance, if Adnan Shukrijumah is everything he’s rumored to be, then he’s a dangerous assassin: Carlos the Jackal with nukes. Keyser Soze come to life. The Jihadist James Bond. I have no doubt that we have his match on our side, no matter how capable he is. But the Jihadists have a head start. For they could have illegally immigrated years ago.

Yo Joe.:

July 30th, 2007 at 11:42 am

I think you 4GW guys have gone off the deep end again into lala land with the koolaid.

Marc, super empowered individuals, and small groups of exceptional persons, have always been around. Think Pasteur, the wright brothers or James Watson. And if you want examples of ones from warfare look no further than Boyds Patterns of Conflict briefing. The majority of military history is made up of persons with better military ideas, like Napoleon or Mao, and small groups who waged terror, like the Mongol raiding parties or German infiltration teams.

If anything, it’s not that superempowered individuals are some new phenemonon, it’s that large groups, especially governments, are generally hopeless and filled with mediocre staff. Thank god terrorists and our enemies are useless, witness the latest attack in England for example, if they were competent we’d be in real trouble.

Michael:

August 2nd, 2007 at 2:43 am

Rejoining marginalized individuals to society: that’s a laudable goal even without the worry about SEIs. Any blogposts forthcoming about how it could be done?

A military of SEIs: what on earth would it look like? GI Joe? Section 9? Does an approximate example even exist, fictional or non? Where does one start?