A follow-up piece from Furnish

Tim Furnish:

September 7th, 2013 at 9:59 pm

Charles,
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Thanks! I finally remembered your mild critique re my ending, so I changed it to this: “The Obama Administration would do well to consider the apocalyptic aspects of the Syrian civil war before committing our forces  to helping those of the Mahdi (if we back the Sunni jihadist “opposition” via air strikes)  or the 12th Imam (if we do nothing, and tacitly assist al-Asad and his Twelver Shi`i allies). ”
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Tim  

Curtis Gale Weeks:

September 7th, 2013 at 11:33 pm

“Whichever side we might commit our forces to, in other words, we’d be supporting one strain of Mahdism or the other…”  would be better stated if “not committing our forces” could be worked into the idea as a form of support.

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But there are more than two sides to this equation. 

Charles Cameron:

September 8th, 2013 at 12:08 am

Thanks, Tim — much clearer IMO.  
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And Curtis — agreed. I think Tim’s revised version takes care of your point as well as mine…

zen:

September 8th, 2013 at 3:52 am

Superb posts Tim and Charles, very informative.
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I will wager $100 that the ominous religious implications of US intervention in Syria Tim outlined was never considered ( or even heard) by the crowd in the White House basement, who according to our UN Ambassador believed that Russia and Iran could have been persuaded to drop Assad as a client and proxy by an American show and tell about a tactical use of poison gas by the regime ( while ignoring ghoulish rebel atrocities and use of CW).

Tim Furnish:

September 8th, 2013 at 4:10 am

You’re welcome, Charles; and thank you, Zen.  Of course this administration won’t consider religious motives, much less apocalyptic ones–after all, the DCI says that considering Islamic religious motives is verboten. 

Grurray:

September 8th, 2013 at 2:08 pm

“the truth is that they have no significant political power”

But not an insignificant (though suppressed) history in the Levant.
Protestant Millenarienists were very active in the Near East in the 19th century and founded American University of Beirut.
You can trace the emergence of Al-Nahda renaissance and the Young Turk nationalist movement to their work. 
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I wouldn’t dismiss their power to influence events so quickly

Tim Furnish:

September 8th, 2013 at 2:15 pm

Grruray: good point.  But neither JaN and other Sunni jihadist-caliphist groups nor the IRI and Hizbullah are taking their cues from Evangelical Christians–they are, rather, articulating and working out intrinsic Islamic beliefs. 

Grurray:

September 8th, 2013 at 2:53 pm

Of course you are right, and our current policy makers aren’t taking cues from them either. Very good write-up.
However,  exploring a strategy that takes into account things that worked for us in the past doesn’t sound like such a bad idea to me. It’s at least interesting to know there is another choice.
The problem is our leaders are currently caught in a post-normal, anti-colonialist orientation and have no time to revisit anything not fitting into their politically correct worldview. 
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Tim Furnish:

September 8th, 2013 at 4:38 pm

Grurray: Your last sentence is of course incredibly incisive! 

omar:

September 9th, 2013 at 3:22 pm

I may be going against prevailing opinion here, but I do think the eschatological fantasies are secondary to realpolitik. They can get out of control (eventually) but there may still be an opportunity to upend both Mahdists and Imamists and take care of things using nothing more fantastical than brains and good old TNT. But the US (not just Obama, the system as a whole) is not going to be able to do that, so we are back to square one. http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2013/09/syria-the-case-for-inaction-or-action.html#more
btw, Maudoodi, in one of his books (I will have to look it up, but it is not an obscure reference) worked out that the final battle will take place at a place called Lod. Since Tel Aviv has an airport that happens to in Lod he was able to predict that the final battle will be in a suburb of Tel Aviv. 

Charles Cameron:

September 9th, 2013 at 4:23 pm

Thanks, Omar:
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My thinking regarding realpolitik and apocalypticism is that they are complexly entangled — for instance, the Abbasids had political reasons to draw on apocalyptic rhetoric in fabricating the “black banners” ahadith, but the popular response, then and now, must have had a strong apocalyptic component, or they wouldn’t have fabricated them, no? If we judge by results as they unfold, we may tend to see all apocalyptic rhetoric as a “cover” for realpolitik — but what we’re liable to miss using that lens is the gathering of potential apocalyptic enthusiasm “under the surface” — which, when it surfaces, can have profound and unexpected consequences, as in the case of Taiping, with 20 or more million dead. So my interest here is to track the undercurrents of Mahdism so as not to be too surprised if, at some point, they merge with or supersede “normal” realpolitik.
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As for the Maududi quote…
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It’s in The Finality of Prophethood, in the section of Traditions Relating to the Descent of Christ, Son of Mary, of which Maudid writes, “we record here authentic traditions on this subject with full references to the authoritative works on Hadith”:

Hadrat an-Nawas b. Sam’an (while relating the story of Dajjal) reports: 
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Meantime when Dajjal will be engaged in perpetrating such deeds, God shall send Christ, son of Mary. Christ (PBUH) will descend near the white tower in the eastern quarter of Damascus, wearing two pieces of yellow garment and resting his hands upon the arms of two angels. When he will bend his head, it would seem that drops of water would fall down from his head and when he will raise his head it would seem as if pearls would be trickling in the form of drops. Any infidel who will be within reach of the air of his breath, and the air of his breath will reach as far as his eye would see – will not escape death. Later the son of Mary will pursue Dajjal and will overtake him at the gate of Lydda [see footnote 9] and put him to death.” (Muslim, Dhikr Dajjal; Abu Dawud, Kitab ul-Malahim, Bab: Khuruj; Dajjal; Tirmidhi, Abwab-ul-Fitan; Bab: Fi Fitna al-Dajjal; Ibn Majah, Kitab ul-Fitna, Bab: Fitna al-Dajjal)

Footnote 9 says:

Please note that Lod (modern Lydda) is situated at a distance of few miles from Tel Aviv, the capital of the State of Israel in Palestine. The Jews have built a large air-base at this place.

omar:

September 9th, 2013 at 5:20 pm

Charles, I agree, but I meant that all this can still be contained (maybe, just maybe) but if it goes on, it will become a really almighty mess. 
I guess “it will go on” does seem like the more realistic probability.
Thanks for the Maudoodi reference. You are amazing.  

Tim Furnish:

September 9th, 2013 at 6:48 pm

That trope about Lud/Lod shows up in a number of Arabic (Sunni) books on eschatology.  I didn’t realize it came from Mawdudi.  Thanks! And I totally agree with Charles, that it’s not a case of eschatology/Mahdism OR realpolitick — it can well be both/and. 

Tim Furnish:

September 9th, 2013 at 8:13 pm

My article from spring 2012 on Iranian eschatological views is relevant to what’s going on in Syria right now: http://hnn.us/article/138229

Charles Cameron:

April 1st, 2014 at 7:56 pm

As Tim Furnish points out, Reuters has a piece on the battle of eschatologies, Sunni and Shia, in Syria — published today: Apocalyptic prophecies drive both sides to Syrian battle for end of time. Tim’s own more detailed description, of which I gave an excerpt above, was posted seven months ago.
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Stay ahead of the curve — read Furnish / Zenpundit!