Wikistrat: Syrian Simulation Summary
The last simulation from Wikistrat, this one on Syria, courtesy of Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett:
Syrian Regime Stability Simulation – Update and Intermediary Summary
What began as a small protest in the small country of Tunisia, the Arab Spring erupted, transforming the political landscape throughout the Middle East and North Africa. People yearning for better opportunities and political freedom began protests throughout the region. Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, in power for thirty years, resigned his position under intense pressure, while Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, in power for forty years, clings to power following a NATO airpower-backed rebellion. Bahrain and Yemen also endure protests that endanger their political leadership. Another country, with a long history of brutal crackdowns against its citizens, with deep-rooted repression from a powerful security apparatus, and a key player in the Middle East peace process, begins to see cracks in its domination from small pockets of protest inspired by the events in region – Syria. Wikistrat’s Syrian Regime Stability simulation analyzes the uprising in Syria using Wikistrat’s unique platform. Wikistrat’s analysts and subscribers, led by Chief Analyst Thomas PM Barnett, collaborate online to examine the Syrian Regime’s stability and its effects on key themes. How will a change in Syria’s Regime affect regional stability including Syria’s relationship with Israel and Saudi Arabia? How will Syria’s relationship with Iran change and how will it affect the region? Will terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah benefit from changes in Syria’s government? Will Kurds rise up against the Syrian Regime or other sectarian violence ensue?
Some of the Scenarios Proposed and their summaries:
(Scenarios plotted by Ryan Mauro, strategic analyst with Wikistrat and author of worldthreats.com)
1) Assad Survives and Quells Dissent – The Assad regime finds itself in a stronger position after violently crushing the uprising. The most influential activists are silenced through various means and the regime is able to identify its opponents and learn how to combat their strategies as a result of this victory. The opposition is demoralized and fractured while some opt to join the government as a minority voice following minor political reforms. The Muslim Brotherhood decides to officially endorse the Assad regime as an ally in the fight against the West.
Suggested by Trevor Westra, of theolog.ca, on the probability of this scenario occurring,
“The plausibility of Assad emerging from the current crisis, with his leadership intact, depends heavily on the continued allegiance of the army…His commanders, most of whom are Alawite loyalists, appear firm in their support.”
2) Assad Survives but is Unstable – Assad adopts a more-liberal tone and institutes minor economic and political reforms. His military stays intact. Visible signs of dissent remain, but the uprising ultimately recedes because its participants cannot organize a formidable opposition movement nationwide. As a result, the West no longer views their support of the opposition as a viable policy option.
A risk of this scenario by Nick Ottens, of http://www.atlanticsentinel.com/, states,
“If unrest persists…the burden of unemployment and further undermining the regime’s legitimacy even in the eyes of people who might have a vested interest in its survival.”
3) Assad Survives Through Iranian Intervention – Iranian forces secure Assad’s regime, while strengthening its grip on Syria. A brief civil war breaks out but is quickly ended through the deployment of Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel and terrorists from Hezbollah and Hamas. The IRGC openly operates in Syria and becomes more intimately involved in the operations of the security services and government agencies. A series of agreements making Syria essentially a military base for Iran are signed and the West concludes that luring Syria away from Iran is no longer a viable policy option.
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