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T. Greer:

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:59 am

Quick fly-by note on the China piece:

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Disagree slightly. I suspect that the reason China uses sticks is not because it is trying to intimidate USA and make Washington feel like the costs of challenging China over hegemony in SE Asia is not worth the benefits, but rather the opposite — my read is that they have already concluded that when push comes to shove Washington has other priorities and that deep down Americans don’t think the costs are worth the benefits. The point of using so many sticks is to demonstrate this to the rest of the region. As I noted back when the Vietnam-China oil rig crisis was still hot:

President Obama’s tour, which ended shortly before the whole HYSY-981 fiasco began, brought the President to Kuala Lumpur, Manila, Tokyo, and Seoul. One wonders if it was wise to exclude Beijing from this list—particularly seeing as the President’s agenda included signing a ten year military pact with the Philippines, declaring that the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands are under U.S. military protection [5], and cajoling South Korean and Malaysian government officials and corporate bigwigs into joining the anti-China Economic Pact Trans Pacific Partnership. From the Chinese perspective it is hard to look at this trip as anything but a hostile attempt to draw tight the noose and solidify a regional alliance to contain it.

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Prompting a crisis was an adroit way to show that the PRC cannot be contained. Washington will not crusade against Moscow and Beijing at the same time. Beijing has forced the Americans to choose between the two. To the chagrin of our Asian allies, Washington’s priorities are not those proclaimed in the President’s speeches last month. ASEAN’s inability to stand as a united front against China’s actions is icing on the cake. Reports from the ASEAN negotiations have been more muted than the last time China was able to sow disunion in ASEAN’s ranks, but it is a safe guess that Chinese diplomats were able to pull many of the same strings they did in 2012. One suspects that China specifically timed the crises to display ASEAN’s disunity, showing the region’s middle tier powers that attempts to use ASEAN to stifle China’s ambitions are nothing but a pipe dream.

Pete Turner:

December 15th, 2014 at 11:37 am

Thanks for the mention Zen. We at the Break It Down show love all things Zen. We can’t do what we do without your support.

Thanks