Intended clouds and unintended consequences
[ by Charles Cameron — this post is mostly concerned with unintended consequences in foreign policy, not Berndnaut Smilde‘s intended and dramatic clouds, but hey! ]
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Nimbus Sankt Peter, 2014. Artist: Berndnaut Smilde
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Obama said in an interview on Vice this week:
ISIL is a direct outgrowth of Al-Qaeda in Iraq that grew out of our invasion. Which is an example of unintended consequences. Which is why we should generally aim before we shoot.
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Rumsefeld said:
As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.
Walt said:
In international relations, at least, none of our theories are all that powerful, the data are often poor, and coming up with good solutions to many thorny problems is difficult. Unintended consequences and second-order effects abound, and policymakers often reject good advice for their own selfish reasons.
Taleb said:
Before the discovery of Australia, people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others extremely concerned with the coloring of birds), but that is not where the significance of the story lies. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird.
Clapper said:
unpredictable instability is the new normal
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Let me list them:
unintended consequences known and unknown unknowns second-order effects black swans unpredictable instability
Are these all what you might call “birds of a feather”?
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Taleb also said:
Viagra, which changed the mental outlook and social mores of retired men, was meant to be a hypertension drug. Another hypertension drug led to a hair-growth medication. My friend Bruce Goldberg, who understands randomness, calls these unintended side applications “corners.” While many worry about unintended consequences, technology adventurers thrive on them.
and:
Mandelbrot’s fractals allow us to account for a few Black Swans, but not all. I said earlier that some Black Swans arise because we ignore sources of randomness. Others arise when we overestimate the fractal exponent. A gray swan concerns modelable extreme events, a black swan is about unknown unknowns.
It strikes me that we could use a Venn diagram of these things, so we can better understand what we don’t understand.
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So let’s add a couple more to our list:
corners cloud of unknowing
The anonymous author of the Cloud of Unknowing, speaking of God, says:
For He can well be loved, but he cannot be thought. By love he can be grasped and held, but by thought, neither grasped nor held. And therefore, though it may be good at times to think specifically of the kindness and excellence of God, and though this may be a light and a part of contemplation, all the same, in the work of contemplation itself, it must be cast down and covered with a cloud of forgetting. And you must step above it stoutly but deftly, with a devout and delightful stirring of love, and struggle to pierce that darkness above you; and beat on that thick cloud of unknowing with a sharp dart of longing love, and do not give up, whatever happens.
March 21st, 2015 at 3:52 pm
One doesn’t aim first to avoid unintended consequences. One aims first to allow thinking into the process of firing a weapon. Aiming allows accuracy in intent, but there are most likely unintended consequences in both the hitting and the missing of a target.
Of course, to the shooter, the unintended consequences of missing are more of a known.
March 21st, 2015 at 11:46 pm
Aiming allows accuracy in intent, because all the time spent in seeing the target is spent in thought, not just observing.
When aiming, the decision has been made to fire and all you are seeing is two points (otherwise don’t point, it is impolite), so thought comes quite natural.
After all, all you are really “seeing” is two points.
The first point is a reference point, and it is where you are. The second point is where the projectile is going to pass through, which comes from the advantage you hold in your position.
Because the decision to fire has already been made, “seeing” doesn’t take much time, considering all the observing, orienting, and decision making you have been going through.
While the book, “Empire of the Summer Moon” tells us that the advantage of the weapon being fired by gunpowder against the Comanche Nation was in its ability to transform into a repeater, in a way, the real advantage was that the weapons gave the ordinary man time to think, and to think outside his/her orientation. After all, out in the pacific Northwest, the kill rate was something like seven solders for every one Native American warrior, so the “repeater” part must have not been that great of an advantage.
And, of course, the reason the ordinary man could think outside his/her orientation, perhaps as Mao once said, the position he/she held had an extreme advantage, not only in number of events over magnitude (the power-law in the distribution of energy), but in accuracy (aiming).
March 22nd, 2015 at 5:00 pm
Alexander Suvorov, the undefeated 18th c Russian general, said,
‘the bullet is a fool, the bayonet is a fine chap.’
A lot of that had to do with the limuted technology of the time, but he was also a strong advocate of flexibility and adaptation on the front lines. Firearms gave commanders more time to think, but relying too much on technology sometimes gave the front line soldier permission to not think anymore.
March 24th, 2015 at 12:42 am
Ah yes, a Russian general with flexibility and adaptation on the front lines.
Ha,ha,ha,ha!
Joke, yes?
March 25th, 2015 at 1:33 pm
No joke.
He was the commander for Catherine the Great during perhaps the peak of Russian civilization
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Enlightenment#Catherine_the_Great
I’m currently in the middle of a book about Leonhard Euler, the greatest mathematician of all time. He helped found the Russian Academy of Science around this time in St Petersburg. Russia was the place to be back then.