Striking Iran — response to Cheryl
Latency is the possession of a nuclear energy program and of reactors, which would allow the production of an atomic bomb on short notice if an extreme danger to national autonomy reared its ugly head. Nuclear latency is sometimes called the ‘Japan option,’ because given its sophisticated scientific establishment and enormous economy, Japan could clearly produce a nuclear weapon on short notice if its government decided to mount a crash program.
9.
As to the question of how far the influence of Khamenei’s opinions go, Khalaji writes:
Iranian nuclear decision-making, therefore, bears the significant imprint of one man’s personality and politics — an imprint that may be unaffected by the will of other men, the decisions of other institutions, or, most ironically, the legal scruples or moral dictates of his own religion.
10.
Timothy Furnish, whose paper A Western View on Iran’s WMD Goal: Nuclearizing the Eschaton, or Pre-Stocking the Mahdi’s Arsenal? also explores the matter with background and in considerable detail, suggests that it is more likely that “Tehran … finds its potential nuclear policy fettered by Qom “:
But the preponderance of evidence — Islamic history in general, specific Shi`i traditions and teachings as well as modern religio-political discourse in Iran – indicates, rather, that the rationality and spirituality of Iranian Mahdism is holding at bay its undeniable jihad aspect. Tehran thus, ironically, finds its potential nuclear policy fettered by Qom: mainstream Shi`i theology does not support violence (nuclear or conventional) in order to precipitate the return of the 12th Imam; furthermore, employing nuclear weapons is verboten in the Mahdi’s absence — except, perhaps, under the rubric of defensive jihad, were Iran itself to be attacked or invaded. Seen in this light, the Islamic Republic’s pursuit of nuclear weapons falls from the overly-alarmist apocalyptic register into a more mundane, and manageable, geopolitical one.
Coming from Dr Furnish, that says a great deal.
10.
And that’s what I have, Cheryl, all. I’m happy to learn more…
Page 3 of 3 | Previous page
Cheryl Rofer:
November 17th, 2011 at 12:14 am
Thanks, Charles. This post is a great resource. When I’d google, I’d find one or two or a few of the sources you’ve collected. Not too satisfying or necessarily helpful. You’ve spent a lot more time on this than I have.
.
Westerners, of course, including me, much prefer a written text that can be examined. This is one of the differences that contributes to the continuing mutual misunderstanding between America and Iran.
.
What you’ve assembled here doesn’t allow conclusions to be drawn one way or another as to Khamenei’s intentions. I guess if I had to summarize, I would say that it comes down to a religious prohibition against nuclear weapons, with a hedge. That’s the kind of thing people in power often do with religion. It’s better than "God is on our side," but it doesn’t provide a clear picture of what might happen under various scenarios.
.
It also seems to point to the objective of Iran’s nuclear program being a latent weapons capability, which is my best guess from a variety of other evidence.
.
The question that remains is to what degree the other people in government and people in the nuclear program take this to be binding. A couple of your sources lean in that direction, but from what I’ve seen of the history of the American program, some of them can be quite driven by the science, so they’ve said, or perhaps the power of the bomb or their own egos. Edward Teller is a notable example.
.
I think that is necessarily an unknown, unless someone from the program itself speaks out.
.
And a great coupling of photos!
Charles Cameron:
November 17th, 2011 at 8:10 pm
Cheryl:
Very interesting point. And on the subject of ego, but with a wider scope — there’s Persia’s long and enormously proud heritage as a world culture to take into account, too.
I am so glad you liked them — I’m fascinated by any and all forms of symmetries, mirrorings, echoes, reflections… I’m a bit of a Escherian / Borgesian at heart.
selfscholar:
May 10th, 2013 at 9:37 am
Hopefully this will fill the gaps for you:
http://selfscholar.wordpress.com/2013/03/24/nuclear-weapons-in-iranian-religious-discourse/
Charles Cameron:
May 10th, 2013 at 9:55 pm
That’s very helpful — thanks.