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Wikistrat Simulation: North American Energy Boom

Wikistrat has started a simulation on the geopolitics of a North American energy market boom, in which I am participating, along with blogfriends HG99. Chris Cox and many other analysts. I have also taken a hand, as time permits, at developing their material on super empowered individuals which should be useful in future simulations.

Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, who is also Wikistrat’s chief analyst, has an extensive post up today explaining the Energy Boom simulation and other Wikistrat information:

Unfolding Wikistrat simulation on North American energy boom

….After the success of the “China as Africa’s de facto World Bank” simulation, we start moving expressedly into a series of sims aimed to flesh out the logic of the world’s first crowd-sourced strategy book, the proposal for which we’re now circulating in NYC. It was about time for me to gin up another, and I was really looking to do something different because I feel like I got my “vision” out in the trilogy.  Plus, I wanted to do something long-term in its thinking.  More details later as things unfold.

For now, we tee up the first of about a half-dozen major sims that will explore the drivers of a particular future world order that I became intrigued with as a result of last summer’s Wikistrat Grand Strategy Competition. To me, how the NorthAm energy boom (question mark suggests nothing in this world is a given) unfolds is one of the major global uncertainties.  North America can get it right or wrong on a host of levels, and since we’re the inventors of these fracking revolution, the QWERTY effect would be huge, triggering a host of possible future pathways from fabulous to self-desructively nasty in terms of the environment and/or whether or not this great gift becomes an excuse for bad geostrategic choices by the U.S., China, Europe, Brazil, India, Russia – the big six we’re focusing on here.  You can say, it’s a simple projection: it works or it doesn’t.  But the secondary and tertiary pathways that are revealed in this two stage process (NorthAm leads, others follow or ignore) are varied and immense in their capacity to make global stability better or worse.

So, naturally, I’m pretty pysched about the sim.  One thing to go and read a bunch of books and try to get smart enough to cover this in a book, but another to turn loose dozens-to-hundreds of virtual co-authors in a competitive space to brainstorm all the possibilities.

Especially exciting for this sim: we now have senior experts stepping in and providing big-time ideas.  Dr. Anne-Marie Slaughter, just out from the Kennan job at State (Policy Planning) under Obama, joined Wikistrat weeks back and she brings not just a wealth of experience and keen insight, she’s also a not-too-closeted enthusiast for this sort of social networking as a tool to drive new thinking and change old thinking. She’s already made a huge contribution to the sim that lays out, in a very clever way grounded in real-world vehicles, how a positive path in NorthAm could go global (as a fellow optimist, my attraction to her scenario was immediate, not because it was rosy per se, but because she elucidated why, given the parameters, this was the best forward-moving deal for the universe of public and private-sector actors working this policy space now in the U.S.).

Other senior experts piping in with their own scenarios include: Gary Hunt, president of Tech and Creative Labs, a tech mash-up that moves software solutions into the energy vertical market; and Chris Cox from Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung (GfK), Germany’s oldest consumer research org (Chris comes with an energy focus on the fmr USSR realm).

Read the rest here.

3 Responses to “Wikistrat Simulation: North American Energy Boom”

  1. Chris Says:

    Been a really interesting scenario so far and right up my alley in terms of work I’ve done previously. Looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

  2. zen Says:

    Great to be working with you on this – I just edited the lawfare scenario bcreated by Andrew

  3. Madhu Says:

    Can’t wait to see how this shakes out. I’ve wondered if it’s real, if it’s hype, if the detractors are hyping their own pet theories too (peak oil guys are mean online, I’ve noted), if we can take advantate of it….
    Excellent. Look forward to whatever comes out of this.
    – Madhu

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