THE GLOBALIZATION BULL IN THE CHINA SHOP: PROMISE AND PERIL IN THE PNM STRATEGY

Even before Deng Xiaoping defeated his hardline Maoist opponents in the late 1970’s to set Beijing on ” the capitalist road”, China’s potentially bright future has been the topic of investors and statesmen. Richard Nixon foresaw China as the superpower of the 21st century. So did Brooks Adams more than a century ago. So when academics and economists are awed this year by China’s stunning, near 9 % GDP growth rate, it appears the long-predicted arrival of China may be finally coming to pass.

Since we are discussing The Pentagon’s New Map it’s of no surprise that China is a critical country in Dr. Barnett’s strategy ( which I discussed earlier here and here ). Rivaled only by India, China would be the most important part of the ” New Core ” of states that decided to join the ” old Core” by adopting their rules and engaging with the world instead of isolating themselves from it. Barnett however, quickly identifies the crux of the problem with China’s progress ( p. 241)

” Of that New Core group, China is the most worrisome, while India is the most promising…China is most worrisome because the hardest rule-set still needs to be changed – the authoritarian rule of the Chinese Communist Party”

This is an aspect that clearly worries the United States government as well. ( hat tip to Jodi) Dr. Barnett has ample descriptions in his book of Pentagon war planners and defense intellectuals envisioning China in a worst-case scenario war for dominance of East Asia.  To focus on military might alone – where the increasingly professional PLA is really still not all that impressive next to say, the IDF much less the U.S. Navy – is a mistake that Dr. Barnett does not make. He’s looking at the global parameters of power that an economic surplus is giving- and demanding of – China for the first time since the fall of the Q’ing dynasty :

“Paul Krugman likes to point out that China’s central bank is one of the main purchasers of Treasury bills in the world, so -in effect- they finance our trade deficit” (p. 311)

and:

” China has to double its energy consumption in a generation if all that growth it is planning is going to occur. we know where the Chinese have to go for the energy: Russia, Central Asia and the Gulf. That’s a lot of new friends to make and one significant past enemy to romance. “(p.230)

Overall, Dr. Barnett is betting that the growing complexity of connectivity’s interactions as China rewrites its rule sets to accept ” the four flows ” of globalization is the ultimate hedge against conflict with China. Or China lapsing into the disorder that plagues the Gap states.

MY COMMENTS:

First, I am not a Sinologist by training and my knowledge of Chinese history lags considerably behind my understanding of say American diplomatic history, Soviet history and a few other topics. On the other hand, the last part of what I’m going to state about China here applies analytically to most societies that would have to make the transition to ” the New Core “.

While China’s current growth rates are amazing we have to keep a few things in mind and try to see some of this PNM scenario through Chinese rather than western eyes. 

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