REVISITING QUESTIONS ON DETERRENCE AND NUCLEAR TERRORISM

First, I’d like to apologize for the long delay. Things kept me busy all weekend and then on Monday night I worked on this post for a good hour plus and then – I’m not sure if the problem was Blogger, my server or my hard drive but something ate my goddam post in an apocalypse of error coding ! This caused a minor tantrum and my shutting the computer off in disgust

Andrew at Politics, Applied asked the following questions in the comments ( in bold blue italics) on Friday. Under each question I added my commentary and invite others to post theirs or provide a longer rebuttal on other blogs and I’ll update this post with the appropriate links.

1. What are our goals in the GWOT? What are the goals of the extreme Islamists?

The goals of the radical Islamists as I interpret them from their own words, actions and commentary of Western experts:

Very Long Term – a unified, ultimately worldwide, Caliphate that enforces a radical Salafist version of the Sharia.

Long Term – the overthrow of all ” apostate” Muslim regimes, the destruction of Israel, the removal of American/Western/Modern/Globalization/Core influences from the Ummah. The expansion of Islamist Sharia state regimes to encompass all the lands once under Muslim rule. For some Sunni-Salafi-Qutbist radicals, the destruction of the Shiite, Ismaili, Alawite and Sufi “heretics” is an important ideological-religious goal.

Medium Term – the capture of a state for the establishment of a Sharia Emirate base with an ideological emphasis on Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt for various reasons. Impose severe costs on the United States and it’s allies in the GWOT through acts of ” spectacular” mass destruction terrorism. Political and religious radicalization of the Ummah.

Short Term – destabilization of Afghanistan and Iraq. Covert infiltration of failed or failing states or outlier regions in Africa, Asia and South America. Covert infiltration of the United States and it’s allies by operational and support teams for acts of terror. Maintain secure financial support, communication and recruiting networks. Continuous training of al Qaida insiders to have a ” deep ” bench to replace operational managers killed or captured by American forces. Acts of ” unspectacular ” terror such as kidnappings, car bombings and beheadings to maintain visibility and credibility.

Very Short Term – maintain day to day security network for OBL and top leadership, small insurgency operations, support activities, propaganda in online al Qaida journals.

The Islamists have goals that range from the practical, tactical and operational to the memetic-ideological to the simply fantastic on a scale not envisioned since Hitler’s plans for the East in the aftermath of Operation Barbarossa. American goals in the GWOT are or should be the following:

Very Long Term – spread of liberal, market economy, democratic regimes across the Muslim World so that they can move up and become ” New Core ” states like India.

Long Term – Discrediting, marginalization and defeat of Islamism as an ideology on par with Fascism and Communism. International acceptance of terrorism as a crime against humanity on par with slavery, genocide, ethnic cleansing and war crimes. Regime change of all rogue state sponsors of terror and WMD proliferation. Resolution of the Palestinian problem with a secular, liberal, democratic republic of Palestine at peace with Israel and economically secure in a regional common market.

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