I can easily envision borrowing what we have learned from econometric analysis techniques, Global Warming computer models, Bayesian Probability analysis, Complexity and Chaos theory and the like to create System Perturbation software programs to identify the likely effects if say, terrorists launched a cyber attack on America’s financial record system or power grids. It doesn’t need to be perfect, simply a rough guide in order to make decentralizing systemic changes that minimize our vulnerability. Likewise, such programs could allow us to maximize and focus the effects of our own attacks to reduce ” blowback ” problems.
System Perturbations forces people to think Horizontally and Vertically in terms of probable outcomes and strategic connections. If nothing else, if Dr. Barnett suceeds getting a fair number of Pentagon and State Department people to begin conceiving of policy in those terms – and they in turn change the culture of their institutions- he would be rendering a signal service to the Republic.
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Dave Schuler:
November 28th, 2004 at 8:52 pm
I think you’re right about the mullahs buying time. As I’ve said elsewhere the negotiations are working perfectly: the mullahs are getting as much time as they want. But I think you’re wrong about Russia. They’re exchanging debt they can’t collect for debt they can collect. They’re just making the best of a bad situation. It reflects nothing on Russia’s relationship to the Core.
mark:
November 30th, 2004 at 3:51 am
Regarding Russia they are also trading for the goodwill with U.S. and ( American influenced ) IMF creditors for their own debts, which are substantial, by demonstrating flexibility on Iraqi debt. This is, I agree, self-interest but it nevertheless binds them more tightly to the Core.
On a related economic note, Russia does not have a lot of options. Oil is booming and the dollar is sliding but the dollar is still the only game in town for them as a hard currency. Gold prices are rising primarily because the Euro is *not* functioning like a viable alternative reserve currency to the dollar and conservative Asian investors are buying hard in precious metals.
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One thing, in this age of unrestricted warfare, system perb.s are going to be hard to be seen than before. They are going to be against the internal force of a nation more than against structure or command and control, as was the attack on the World Trade Center.
As an example, I think GhostNet is one such perb. that is hardly seen but is the sort of thing civil wars and external displacements were built on, in the past. Very big in its own small way. The fear and distruction of a tsunami, but without the expendiing of great force in its production.
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