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Monday, November 20th, 2006

TAXONOMIES AND THEIR LIMITS

Dan of tdaxp, who is deep into grad studies on the genetic factors involved in education, socialization and politics, launched a lightning bolt at the theory of the stages of moral development advocated by the late social psychologist, Lawrence Kohlberg . Personally, I like Kohlberg as an instrument for inspiring critical thinking and Dan has been provoked to do a critical appraisal of that instrument itself:

“Confusing morality with rationalization is insane.

For quite a while I’ve felt that Kohlberg’s stages of moral development are balderdash. The more I learn, the more skeptical I become. Kohlbergism is the bastard offspring of a rape of naive Piagetianism by blithering Vygotskianism.

…One way to attack Kohlberg is to argue him to absurdity by demonstrating situations where a higher “moral” stage of development leads to actions considered immoral. (That we even have to confuse normative ideals and substantive facts like this is demonstrates another Kohlbergian absurdity, but that would be a post for another time).

For those unfamiliar with Kohlberg, his theory was based on an effort of decades collecting cross-cultural examples of moral reasoning, from which he constructed his six stages of moral develpment. The sixth stage is representing ( as I interpret Kohlberg) self-actualized moral exemplars like Mohandas Gandhi or the Dalai Lama ( or whomever) who articulate an appeal to “higher” or ” universal” moral truths that superceded their society’s – actually, all societies – conventional morality. This is what appears to be ticking off Dan, as one could just as easily argue for including Nietzsche’s Ubermensch in the sixth stage, as we could for the Mahatma.

Effectively, Kohlberg’s theory is a reified example of pattern recognition, a set of categories known as a taxonomy. Taxonomies are extremely useful and powerful cognitive tools, indeed having been used formally for at least two thousand years. They are the basis of natural history but can be found to some extent in almost all disciplines. Their explanatory power has definite limits however.

First, a taxonomy defines a phenomena organizationally and in terms of relative value. It does not automatically grant insight into the mechanics of the interrelationships. Indeed, Kohlberg’s theory is weakest in explaining the specific nature of the dynamic psychological transition between stages and relies on an uncertain arbitrariness of the authority (Kohlberg) who is constructing the taxonomy.

4GW theory suffers from the same defects as Kohlberg’s stages of moral development, being essentially, a taxonomy of warfare. 1GW did not have to begin where it did. Lind and his co-authors could have began with the advent of ancient tyrannies and metal weaponry or Roman logistics or whatever point they felt was the best historical benchmark. The choice was, to an extent, arbitrary, if reasoned. PNM theory too has been criticized on the grounds of where does the Core really and truly separate from the Gap ? Taxonomies by their nature cannot avoid such criticisms.

Secondly, taxonomies impose entirely artificial ” borders” separating the phenomena, isolating and fracturing it unnaturally from the rest of the complex adaptive system that comprises the known universe. The real world is always far more connected, linked, paralleled, networked and wired for feedback than in our neatly demarcated mental models. Reality is messy and taxonomies help bring cognitive clarity to at least a fraction of it. That clarity will always come at a cost of inaccuracy or holistic myopia but great taxonomies represent launching pads for further investigation.

They are the ” shoulders of giants” for the rest of us mortals to stand upon.

UPDATE:

Dan presses his critique of Kohlberg’s theory in light of evolutionary psych research:

I think Mark’s criticism of the Stages as a taxonomy are right on, but my distaste goes deeper. If anything, Kohlberg is measuring amoral or immoral rationalization ability. Kohlberg is measuring a social derivitive of linguistic intelligence. Kohlberg is measuring an ability to please.

Kohlberg talks about laws, but in the general way that people have who do not know them. Laws were created and could be erased at any time. They typically were created incompetently and the whole reason for my parents’ profession was that cleverness counted more than wisdom. One could find evidence in the Law for nearly anything. What counted was the fashions of the time for some words on some texts.

It’s clear that instead of a universal moral development, the change in answers Kohlberg observed are an interaction between a basic drive for fairness and rhetorical dexterity. The first is widespread among the most popular human phenotype of “wary cooperators” or “strong reciprocators.” Berk adequately covers a genetic predisposition to fairness on pages 476-477, so instead I will focus on the role of practice.

Read the rest here.

I’m admittedly out of touch with what is happening in Ed journals these days, but I’m inclined to believe that Dan has in his post, a good start on writing something really provocative for publication.

Monday, November 20th, 2006

MAPPING SOME STRATEGY

I just noticed this evening that Art Hutchinson has begun posting again at Mapping Strategy after being on hiatus since early last summer. Art is one of the very few ” go to ” experts that I would pick if I had a question regarding strategic thinking, scenario planning or organizational resilience. I also had the pleasure of collaborating in an exploratory group project with Art last spring and while the project itself did not bear the fruit we had hoped for, I would definitely jump at the chance to work with Art again and use that opportunity to pick his brain.

For those readers not familiar with Mapping Strategy, I suggest the recent post “WaPo Misguided on ‘Experts’ vs. the Swarm“. An excerpt:

“What the article doesn’t take space to note (but which I know Wolfers and Hanson know well) is that prediction markets do an even better job of rewarding experts because 1) they are able to increase their influence as a direct result of, and in proportion to the stupidity or inaccuracy of the dilettantes and 2) experts betting anonymously or pseodonymously can bring in information that they otherwise might be reluctant to offer under their own name.”

Welcome back Art !

Sunday, November 19th, 2006

RECOMMENDED READING

Dave at Thoughts Illustrated – ” The Starfish and the Spider – The Unstoppable power of leaderless organisations

Looks to be a good book, so new though that it is not in stock in the major bookstore chains in my area, except downtown so I’m going to be ordering online. No book is worth driving on the Kennedy these days.

Curzon at Coming Anarchy – “Korea admits Tokyo War Crimes Tribunals Void?

South Korea’s postmodernist-nihilist Left, has done incredible damage in their time in power. Much like the American academic Left, which tried to use the occasion of the anniversary of Hiroshima to construct an apologia for Japanese ultranationalist fascism at the Smithsonian, ROK leftists have adopted an appalling ” blood and soil” approach to ” truth” that essentially has the same effect, albeit more indirectly.

Eide Neurolearning Blog – “What You Believe Matters – Can You Change Your Brain?

The amazing power of neural plasticity combined with what Howard Bloom termed ” inner judges” to shape brain structure and cognition.

That’s it !

Saturday, November 18th, 2006

FABIUS MAXIMUS ON IRAQ

DNI’s Fabius Maximus has a wry piece up, “Situation Report on the Expedition to Iraq “. The dry title belies a somewhat swiftian comparison of the Bush administration policy in Iraq with the classic seven stages of grief. Unfortunately, unlike Jonathan Swift’s A Modest Proposal,
Fabius has posited criticisms that are not merely satirical.

“As many 4GW experts forecast, the western nations’ (largely US and UK) Expedition to Iraq was doomed before it began. As such the Kubler-Ross “Death and Dying” process offers the best metaphor for our conduct of the war. 1/

Shock & Denial: Initial paralysis at hearing the bad news: trying to avoid the inevitable.

Anger: Frustrated outpouring of bottled-up emotion.

Bargaining: Seeking in vain for a way out.

Depression: Final realization of the inevitable.

Testing and Acceptance: Seeking realistic solutions; finally finding a way forward.

America’s elites remained for a long period in Denial, and then moved into Anger. 2/ They directed their anger at anybody other then themselves: Bush/Hitler, Leftist traitors, “Neville Chamberlain’s” in the Democratic Party, Al Qaeda, various elements of the Iraq people, and Iran. There have been, of course, few mea culpa’s from our leaders, Democrat or Republican.”

While we can differ on details, I am more or less in agreement with Fabius that America’s elite, both Left and Right, have failed the people and the soldiers in Iraq with their uncertainty, fecklessness, paralysis and addiction to self-absorbed partisanship. America needs a new elite, the old one has lost heart, nerve and to a certain extent -their head. They lack the will to prosecute the war on terror and the skill to execute it well. I’m not sure we’ll see great improvement in statesmanship either until the Boomers start yielding their place to GenX’ers.

Fabius has not yet posted his recommendations but I have two observations on the second part of his article where he criticizes the remaining options left to salvage the situation in Iraq ( Fabius presumes it not to be worth salvaging and counsels that defeat be accepted).

Fabius is correct that withdrawing to the desert helps nothing except to delay the inevitable. He’s right. It’s a form of avoiding choosing sides in a multi-ethnic and sectarian civil war, which will neither prevent the civil war nor do us much good. One potential solution is to forswear supposed neutrality, which no Iraqi believes of us anyway, and put our weight behind the likely winners so they win faster and with less ultimate bloodshed ( this is relative and bloodshed will happen regardless. The question now is: How much ?).

Another choice is to opt for what Fabius derides, an alliance with a Kurdish client state that comes to an agreement with Ankara, so that at least there is a zone of stability and civil peace in one section of old Iraq. As far as ” stable platforms” are concerned, Kurdistan need not be West Germany circa 1985, just be non-anarchic and open to connectivity to the West.

Is this a perfect solution ? No, not in my view. Are Barzani and Talabani the reincarnations of Thomas Jefferson and John Adams ? No. But they aren’t Saddam Hussein or Pol Pot either and seem to grasp Kurdistan’s delicate geopolitical position and need of American support. Reasonable, if self-interested, partners who command disciplined fighting forces. Can anything similar be found among Shiites or Sunnis ?

What the Kurds represent is only a realistic opportunity to hedge against total disaster and the U.S. should take it with their eyes wide open. Kurdistan also fits the size of the forces we have committed while Iraq as a whole does not. Having thrown away every strategic opportunity that emerged in Iraq in the aftermath of Saddam’s overthrow, policy makers need to adjust their sights now toward accomplishing minimalist goals.

ADDENDUM:

Discuss Fabius’ article at The Small Wars Council

Friday, November 17th, 2006

MILTON FRIEDMAN, R.I.P

“There were Giants in the Earth in those days”

Professor Milton Friedman, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics, the father of monetarism and easily one of most influential economists of the twentieth century, passed away today of heart failure at the age of 94.

An ardent and lifelong exponent of free markets and individualism, Freidman never lost his intellectual curiousity or his willingness to reexamine his ideas about markets and the state and critically review his own prior arguments. Friedman’s ideas provided the intellectual power behind a sigificant part of the modern conservative movement and continue to influence the culture to this day. His seminal work, Capitalism and Freedom, sits alongside The Road to Serfdom, Atlas Shrugged, The Conservative Mind and Conscience of a Conservative in the pantheon of books that gave rise to the generation of activists who made up the New Right and rode to power with Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Rest in peace, Dr. Friedman.


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