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Tuesday, July 25th, 2006

BEACON SOFT POWER AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY SERIES:DAY 2

For Tuesday’s segment of the series, Paul Kretkowski’s Beacon features a post by Professor Patricia Kushlis, a retired Foreign Service Officer and specialist in Europe, Asia, the U.S., politics, public diplomacy and national security. Kushlis is also part of a trio of experts at the highly recommended foreign affairs blog, Whirledview.

An excerpt:

“Public Diplomacy Dateline 1975: A Meeting in Helsinki

In 1992, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) held its first major conference in Helsinki, Finland, a fitting memorial to the Cold War’s end. This 54-nation conference also commemorated CSCE’s 1975 beginning—the initial 35-state conference held in the same city but at a different time in a polarized world. The U.S. had only reluctantly agreed to participate, perhaps simply because the idea of a pan-European security conference had Soviet origins. America’s cold warriors—still smarting from Vietnam—feared wrongly the conference might hurt U.S. interests in Europe, the chief battleground between East and West. Baltic émigré communities also objected because they believed the conference would legalize then-national boundaries, keeping the three small Baltic countries forever in Soviet hands.

The 1975 conference included a human rights “basket” or negotiating group. Its negotiators drafted a declaration of support for individual human rights. The declaration became known as the Helsinki Accords—that first CSCE conference’s most important act. I don’t know why the Soviets agreed but they did—perhaps because they thought no enforcement or verification mechanisms existed, and so assumed the human rights provisions were empty words.

In the end, the Helsinki Accords—unbeknownst to us—provided the chief protection for and inspiration of tiny groups of anti-Communist dissidents from Prague to Moscow. They ultimately inspired the many to challenge the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union and to end Communism in Europe.”

Read Patricia Kushlis’ guest post in full here.

Kushlis is correct, in my view. Helsinki’s outcome on human rights was perceived as such a diplomatic disaster by the Politburo that the lead Soviet negotiator, a rising star who had expected a promotion to the “commanding heights” of the nomenklatura, went into a swift political eclipse. On the American side, former DCI Robert Gates, known as a “hardliner” among Sovietologists in the IC community during his tenure, lauded the political and psychological effects of Helsinki in his memoirs.

Tuesday, July 25th, 2006

ON SITUATIONAL CONTEXT AND MULTIPLE UNIVERSALITIES

Wiggins, at Opposed System Design, had the following comment in a post ” Evolving Thoughts on Terrorism ” recently which I had meant to blog about at the time but have only gotten around to addressing now:

“As a rule I am wary of metaphors that involve the second law of thermodynamics, Godel’s Incompleteness Theorems, quantum physics and evolution. Sometimes they are truly appropriate (this is why John Boyd rocketed to the top of my esteem). Usually they are not. I’m not passing judgment here yet. Just musing that when making comparisons to nuanced concepts, it is very easy to slide into sloppy generalizations. “

A very useful caveat in my view, and one that spurred me to further thought.

There are a number of such metaphors applied to complex adaptive systems, including social ones. I do it frequently here myself. Sometimes I am simply making an analogy and at other times I am writing about a phenomena that is actually in play in a given situation. Some of these phenomena are considered universalities – the Laws of Physics being one example – that seemingly govern all situations or at least enough of those in a humanocentric scenario as to be perceived as being universal. Evolution would be another example and Robert Wright once wrote a well-considered book on that very topic.

Sometimes, however, these universalities do not seem to apply very well to a specific situation, one noted by Wiggins in his post. Most of the time this may be due to the “sloppy generalizations” to which Wiggins alluded. At other time it may be that the role of a universality in a particular situational dynamic, that while still present, is not very important for the following reasons:

a) Time frame of the scenario

b) Relative effect in comparison to that of other universalities is not significant on human scale

c) Perspective of the observer

d) Local vs. Global scenarios

e) Complexity of net variables

I’m certain Dr. Von or Wiggins could think of more possibilities than can I.

Analysts attempting to game the probable outcomes of hypothetical scenarios for complex social systems ( say ” Invading Iraq”) have to weigh the universalities against each other as well as the particularities of the context. The greater the simplification employed in making an analogy between two dissimilar contexts affected by the same universality then, I would argue, the longer the time frame required to see if the analogy has validity.

Monday, July 24th, 2006

BEACON SOFT POWER AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY SERIES:DAY 1

Paul Kretkowski’s Beacon features a post by John H.Brown, a former Foreign Service officer and the compiler of the respected Public Diplomacy Review. An excerpt:

“Public Diplomacy Dateline 2001: Willis Conover, the American Deejay Who Penetrated the Iron Curtain for 40 Years

My best episode of public diplomacy in my 20-year foreign service career is a 2001 jazz festival in Moscow honoring Willis Conover, the legendary host of the 40-year Voice of America Jazz Hour program that had such an impact on Eastern European audiences during the Cold war. The event, organized by the cultural section of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow and Russian jazz organizations—and financially supported by the State Department and the Voice of America—commemorated the fifth anniversary of the death of this extraordinary disc jockey, whose unforgettable baritone voice, turning his heartland American English into a kind of musical composition of its own, introduced millions outside the United States to the uniqueness—and universality—of jazz.

American and Russian musicians took part in the two-day celebration, which drew a packed house and many young people. It was wonderful to see how Willis—without whom, arguably, the Cold War would not have ended—was remembered with such affection and admiration in what was formerly “enemy” territory. Conover had become a part of the collective memory of jazz lovers, an artistic genius (so unlike crude propagandists involved in the East-West struggle) who made the best of American cultural achievements accessible to information-starved listeners behind the Iron Curtain eager for an alternative to communist efforts at mind-control.

It is ironic that Willis is practically unknown in his own country, as his programs were not aired stateside due to the Smith-Mundt Act of 1948, which prohibits the domestic dissemination of U.S. government-supported information products intended for foreign audiences.”

Read John H. Brown’s guest post in full here.

Monday, July 24th, 2006

RECOMMENDED READING

Other online projects and fun family activities have put a dent in my blogging lately but I’ll try to remediate that this week. Here are my picks this Sunday:

Dr. Sam Crane at The Useless Tree -” The Middle East War: What Would Sun Tzu Do?

Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett – ” WWIII is the wrong metaphor” ( incidentally, I agree)

William Lind at DNI -” The Summer of 1914

John Robb at Global Guerillas -“ ISRAEL’S LEBANON MASHUP

Valdis Krebs at Orgnet.com – “A Self-organizing network model of the Mideast

Federalist X at Amendment Nine -” The Better Barnett

Dan of tdaxp – “AfroIslamic Gap v. New Core, Reloaded

Younghusband at Coming Anarchy-” WWIII is not realism, it’s romanticism

CKR at Whirledview -” War Talk

Eddie at Live From the FDNF -” Does The Blank Check Bounce On July 31st?”

LTC Rick Francona at Middle East Perspectives -” Israel-Hezbollah: Preparing the battlefield

That’s it !

Sunday, July 23rd, 2006

GUEST POSTING AT BEACON

Paul D. Kretkowski, journalist and proprietor of Beacon has invited me to participate next weekin a blogging series to answer the question What was the best single episode of public diplomacy ever, and secondly, what has been the most influential element of soft power of all time?”.

Kretkowski has assembled an impressive team of contributors and I’m flattered to be included amongst them. They are:

“—Former Foreign Service Officer and Public Diplomacy Reviewer John H. Brown

—University of Leicester and USC professor Nicholas Cull

—Former FSO and WhirledView contributor Patricia Kushlis

—Harvard professor and Soft Power author Joseph Nye

—Intel/military maven and ZenPundit founder Mark Safranski

—CSU Fullerton associate professor and USC senior fellow Nancy Snow

I will be linking to each contributor’s post daily but I encourage you to visit Beacon and offer your comments on this important series.


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