{"id":3796,"date":"2011-03-03T03:33:06","date_gmt":"2011-03-03T03:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=3796"},"modified":"2011-03-03T03:33:06","modified_gmt":"2011-03-03T03:33:06","slug":"wikistrat-middle-east-monitor-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=3796","title":{"rendered":"Wikistrat: Middle-East Monitor # 3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" src=\"http:\/\/www.opinion-maker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/tahrir_square.jpg\" height=\"326\" \/>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Liberated from<strong> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/globlogization.wikistrat.com\/globlogization\/2011\/3\/2\/wikistrats-middle-east-monitor-3.html\">Tom Barnett<\/a><\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/globlogization.wikistrat.com\/globlogization\/2011\/3\/2\/wikistrats-middle-east-monitor-3.html\"><strong>Wikistrat&#8217;s Middle East Monitor\u00a0(#3)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote><p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/globlogization.wikistrat.com\/universal\/images\/transparent.png\" alt=\"Date\" title=\"Date\" \/><strong>We&#8217;re excited to announce the launch of <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.wikistrat.com\/geopolitical-analysis\/middle-east-monitor-february-2011\"><strong>Wikistrat&#8217;s Middle East Monitor for February 2011<\/strong><\/a><strong>, which can be viewed in entirety by <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.wikistrat.com\/geopolitical-analysis\/middle-east-monitor-february-2011\"><strong>clicking here<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Mid\u00addle East and North Africa is again a pro\u00adfoundly dif\u00adfer\u00adent place than it was in De\u00adcem\u00adber 2010 or even in Jan\u00adu\u00adary 2011. The biggest de\u00advel\u00adop\u00adment is the down\u00adfall of Egypt\u00adian Pres\u00adi\u00addent Hosni Mubarak as a re\u00adsult of the up\u00adris\u00ading in Tunisia that brought down Pres\u00adi\u00addent Ben Ali. As a pop\u00adu\u00adla\u00adtion with over 80 mil\u00adlion peo\u00adple and a major strate\u00adgic power, the suc\u00adcess of the up\u00adris\u00ading ex\u00adpo\u00adnen\u00adtially in\u00adcreases the mo\u00admen\u00adtum of pro\u00adtest\u00aders in the re\u00adgion that has ex\u00adisted since Tunisia&#8217;s Jas\u00admine Rev\u00ado\u00adlu\u00adtion&#8230;.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Wikistrat Bottom Lines<\/h2>\n<h3><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/d19weywzuuwz91.cloudfront.net\/wiki\/images\/check.gif\" alt=\"Go!\" \/>Opportunities<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The overall demand for liberalization can open the door to Foreign Direct Investment as economic openness is demanded and governments resort to economic reforms to reduce internal stresses. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The demand for political liberalization can permit a better flow of information and ideas, allowing for a proliferation of voices and opinions. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Western support for those demanding reforms can decrease hostility, particularly towards the U.S., over the perception that it is not committed to human rights and has imperialistic motivations. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/d19weywzuuwz91.cloudfront.net\/wiki\/images\/forbidden.gif\" alt=\"Stop!\" \/>Risks<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood could come to power because of the desire for a greater role for Islam in public life, their superior organization and in some cases, a desire for some elements of governance based on Sharia law. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Anarchy could result as protesters clash with security forces. This can lead to instability that negatively affects world markets and potentially result in the damaging of oil facilities. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The increased power of the populations could result in foreign policies more hostile to the West and more favorable to Iran. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/d19weywzuuwz91.cloudfront.net\/wiki\/images\/warning.gif\" alt=\"Warning!\" \/>Dependencies<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The appeal of the Islamist parties and political figures. It is possible that the population will not feel the Islamist candidates are qualified to improve the economy or carry out reform or may simply question their agenda once campaigning is underway. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The loyalty of the security forces. This is an important factor as they are the ones given the responsibility to ensure the survival of the governments, but they may defect if ordered to become violent. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The unity of the opposition. Division can weaken the opposition and strengthen the government and lead to dysfunction during a power vacuum. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/d19weywzuuwz91.cloudfront.net\/MiddleEastMonitorSummaryFebruary2011.pdf\"><strong>Click here to download the summary as a PDF document<\/strong><\/a><strong>. Subscribers can download this entire edition in PDF or view on our interactive wiki.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0 Liberated from Tom Barnett: Wikistrat&#8217;s Middle East Monitor\u00a0(#3) We&#8217;re excited to announce the launch of Wikistrat&#8217;s Middle East Monitor for February 2011, which can be viewed in entirety by clicking here. Summary The Mid\u00addle East and North Africa is again a pro\u00adfoundly dif\u00adfer\u00adent place than it was in De\u00adcem\u00adber 2010 or even in Jan\u00adu\u00adary [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[615],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-wikistrat"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3796\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}