{"id":4277,"date":"2011-08-19T05:45:31","date_gmt":"2011-08-19T05:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=4277"},"modified":"2011-08-19T05:45:31","modified_gmt":"2011-08-19T05:45:31","slug":"two-links-on-political-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=4277","title":{"rendered":"Two Links on Political Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>That are complementary:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fabius Maximus<\/strong> &#8211;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com\/2011\/08\/18\/28359\/\"><strong>Our fears are unwarranted. America is in fact\u00a0well-governed.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>&#8230;.America is in better shape than Europe and Japan.\u00a0 We have good demographics, sound fundamentals, relatively easily solved problems, and no powerful enemies.\u00a0 Why the constant sense of crisis?\u00a0 QE2, hyperinflation, climate armageddon, Obama the socialist, AIDS, alar on apples, jihadists, debt, swine flu &#8211;\u00a0a constant drumroll of doom, explained by Peter Moore in &#8220;The Crisis Crisis&#8221; (<em>Playboy<\/em>, March 1987).\u00a0\u00a0 Answer:\u00a0 elites govern a weak people by exploiting their fears.\u00a0 For example, look at the &#8220;government is broke&#8221; panic.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The\u00a0<\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.treasurydirect.gov\/NP\/BPDLogin?application=np\" title=\"Treasury\"><strong>Federal government&#8217;s net debt<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0is only 2\/3 of GDP, well below the 100% of GDP &#8220;red line&#8221; (that Italy reached many years ago).<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>The short-term deficit is mostly\u00a0the result of\u00a0the recession.\u00a0 The medium-term deficit results from the Bush tax cuts.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Social security&#8217;s funding gap is\u00a0<\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/motherjones.com\/kevin-drum\/2011\/02\/understanding-social-security-one-easy-lesson\" title=\"Drum\"><strong>small vs. GDP<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0and easily fixed.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>The\u00a0massive funding gap is mostly Medicare, easily fixed by adopting features from the mixed public-private systems in Europe.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Panic pushes\u00a0Americans to allow cuts to popular social services plus\u00a0increased and highly regressive taxes.\u00a0 No matter who wins, after the 2012\u00a0election our representatives will implement\u00a0the\u00a0necessary policy changes:\u00a0 raising taxes, cutting expenditures, rebuilding our infrastructure, and\u00a0beginning the long process of reforming health care.\u00a0 It will be another morning in America.\u00a0 There is no crippling polarization, just distracting noise masking a consensus between both parties about the key points of economic and foreign policy.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>We do not see this long-standing pattern (see\u00a0<\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com\/2011\/08\/10\/28071\/\" title=\"FM\"><strong>the previous post<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0for details) because\u00a0our collective\u00a0OODA loop is broken (see\u00a0<\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com\/america\/\" title=\"FM\"><strong>section 6 here<\/strong><\/a><strong>).\u00a0 That\u00a0makes us easier to lead.\u00a0 Relying on wealth-based elites to run the country has a cost.\u00a0 They take a large share of the pie; we take a small slice&#8230;.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Global Guerrillas &#8211;<a href=\"http:\/\/globalguerrillas.typepad.com\/globalguerrillas\/2011\/08\/journal-global-financial-cancer.html\">JOURNAL: Global Financial Cancer<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>&#8230;.A couple of years ago, I wrote that the underlying structure of the global financial system was a &#8220;bow-tie.&#8221; \u00a0Here&#8217;s <\/strong><a target=\"_self\" href=\"http:\/\/globalguerrillas.typepad.com\/globalguerrillas\/2008\/06\/bow-tie-contr-1.html\"><strong>what I said<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0(it&#8217;s worth going back and reading the entire article and this <\/strong><a target=\"_self\" href=\"http:\/\/pleiad.dcc.uchile.cl\/_media\/bic2007\/papers\/trends.pdf\"><strong>paper on bow-ties<\/strong><\/a><strong> from John Doyle at Caltech):<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>If we look at this new global system from a distance, its architecture is something called a bow-tie. This is a universal control system architecture that underlies complex systems from the Internet to cell metabolism.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/globalguerrillas.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451576d69e20154349acacb970c-pi\"><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/globalguerrillas.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451576d69e20154349acacb970c-120wi\" alt=\"Bowtie\" title=\"Bowtie\" \/><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>What is a Bow Tie?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>The bow-tie is a very powerful approach to organizing a complex system (it&#8217;s a system design that is used by controls engineers.) \u00a0Visually, it starts with complex inputs (the left side of the bow-tie), boils them down into simple build blocks (the knot), which then allows the construction of complex outputs (the right side of the bow-tie&#8230;.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8230;.Unfortunately, as I mentioned in the earlier article, bow-ties are vulnerable to organisms that attach themselves to the knot at their center (like the way cancer uses the body&#8217;s metabolism system). \u00a0These organisms relentlessly use the bow-tie&#8217;s knot to for selfish ends (rapid growth). \u00a0The end result is typically death for the system. \u00a0My suggestion was that the instability we were seeing in the financial system was an indication that it had been co-opted by a malicious, self-serving organism.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Of course, at the time there wasn&#8217;t much data to support this systemic analysis. \u00a0That has been rectified with a new paper, <\/strong><a target=\"_self\" href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1107.5728v1\"><strong>The Network of Global Corporate Control<\/strong><\/a><strong> by Vitali et. al. from ETH in Zurich. \u00a0This paper finds, through extensive network analysis, that a small group of tightly intertwined financial institutions control the bow of the global financial system. \u00a0It is in effect, the world&#8217;s first super-organism&#8230;.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>They are both right. Probably not perfectly, the American economy, even more the world&#8217;s, is too complex a subject, but right enough.<\/p>\n<p><strong>FM<\/strong> is right that the emerging class of people I have been calling &#8220;<strong>the Oligarchy<\/strong>&#8221; the past couple of years do not intend to deliberately\u00a0implode the system that is working outrageously to their benefit. They are currently in the stage of trying to come up with an arsenal of tax-farming schemes that will pass political muster (i.e. &#8211; not\u00a0provoke uncontrollable, &#8220;Arab Spring&#8221;\u00a0street demonstrations or a successful populist electoral revolt\u00a0 that would eject their sycophants from government en masse in\u00a0a single\u00a0election) and are quietly,\u00a0methodically and strategically neutering the capacity of the populace to resist their rule over the long term. It is there that we see seemingly unrelated measures as the coordinated political attack on public education and university education, restrictions on the ability of citizens to get courts to review arbitrary actions of Federal agencies, imposition of laws to permit\u00a0total surveillance of US citizens and acquisition of their personal information and so on.<\/p>\n<p>The elite, who are not completely cohesive or formally organized, are supremely confident in their ability to manage the technocratic economy they are putting into place, or if bumps in the road appear, to squeeze sufficient\u00a0new leverage\u00a0from the populace through inflation, devaluation and other forms of expropriation. Unfortunately, I am not confident that these folks are nearly as competent as they imagine themselves to be. Nor am I sure that the global system that they have built, a high-performance, deeply complex, ultra-leveraged, financial sector dominant political economy isn&#8217;t as fragile and dangerously unstable as people like <strong>John Robb<\/strong> and <strong>Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/strong> have maintained it is. The system might not just crash, it could crash to extreme depths with unprecedented speed with unforseen consequences (financial systems also ensure the reliable and continuous\u00a0logistical flow of *food* and *power* to population centers).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>That are complementary: Fabius Maximus &#8211;Our fears are unwarranted. America is in fact\u00a0well-governed. &#8230;.America is in better shape than Europe and Japan.\u00a0 We have good demographics, sound fundamentals, relatively easily solved problems, and no powerful enemies.\u00a0 Why the constant sense of crisis?\u00a0 QE2, hyperinflation, climate armageddon, Obama the socialist, AIDS, alar on apples, jihadists, debt, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[360,361,46,590,327,9,346,151,277,309,132,65,332,198,425,78,303,270,588],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-21st-century","category-america","category-analytic","category-capitalism","category-complex-systems","category-complexity","category-connectivity","category-conspiracy","category-corporations","category-criminals","category-dystopia","category-economic-determinism","category-economics","category-fabius-maximus","category-government","category-ideas","category-john-robb","category-national-security","category-oligarchy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4277"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4277\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}