{"id":45660,"date":"2015-07-27T05:02:05","date_gmt":"2015-07-27T05:02:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=45660"},"modified":"2015-07-27T05:02:05","modified_gmt":"2015-07-27T05:02:05","slug":"recommended-reading-viewing-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=45660","title":{"rendered":"Recommended Reading & Viewing"},"content":{"rendered":"

[by Mark Safranski<\/strong>, a.k.a. “zen<\/strong>“]<\/p>\n

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Top Billing (Multi-post Blogging)! Cheryl Rofer of Nuclear Diner, on the Iran Deal<\/strong>:\u00a0Yes, There Is An Iran Deal<\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0Approaching The Iran Deal<\/a>,\u00a0The Fun Part Of The JCPOA<\/a>,\u00a0Taking Samples \u2013 Not As Simple As You Might Think<\/a>,\u00a0The Volunteer Verification Corps<\/a>,\u00a0The JCPOA \u2013 Monitoring Uranium Enrichment<\/a>,\u00a0Twenty-Four Days<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

….A number of you have requested posts on JCPOA verification and the \u201c24-day\u201d issue. A way to start is with Jeffrey Lewis\u2019s request<\/a> for how environmental remediation relates to JCPOA verification. It\u2019s something that I will need to refer back to in discussing those issues. And it\u2019s clearly something that numerous commentators have no idea about. Basically, the requirements for sampling should be pretty much the same for IAEA inspections as for environmental remediation. Both have to stand up to legal scrutiny.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

I\u2019ll use three sites as examples: a metal plating bath outflow that was one of my responsibilities at Los Alamos, the Parchin site<\/a> in Iran, and Al Kibar<\/a>. I\u2019m not making any big points here about Parchin and Al Kibar. I am using them to show what sampling requires.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sampling is easy, right? You dig up some soil and put it in a baggie, or you swipe a wall with a tissue, and then you send it to the analytical lab and they tell you. BZZZZT! WRONG!<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sampling starts at a desk. First, you have to figure out the question you are trying to answer. The environmental remediation questions are pretty standard \u2013 what is there, how much, and where it is spread to \u2013 but the IAEA\u2019s questions tend to be more varied. At Al Kibar, the question is whether there was a reactor there before the Israeli raid and the Syrian cleanup of the site. The situation at Parchin is more complicated. Three types of experiments are alleged to have been done in a containment chamber inside a building, after which the Iranians made many modifications to the site, including modifications to the suspect building, soil removal, and asphalt overlay. The basic question is which, if any, of those experiments took place there.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Second, you have to figure out what kind of samples you need to answer the question. For the plating outflow, that meant going to the archives to find out what kinds of metals and other chemicals were involved in the plating operation, what was released in the outflow, when and for how long. You also need to know what kind of samples the analytical laboratory will need to get good analyses. If you spend days getting 10-gram samples and the lab needs 100 grams for the analysis you want, well, you\u2019ll have to do it again. And the IAEA doesn\u2019t always get to do it again. [….]<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

David Brin –\u00a0Altruistic Horizons: Our tribal natures, the ‘fear effect’ and the end of ideologies<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

….Deep thinkers about human nature start with assumptions. Freud<\/i> focused on sexual trauma and repression, Marx<\/i> on the notion that humans combine rational self-interest with inter-class predation.\u00a0Machiavelli<\/i> offered scenarios about power relationships. Ayn Rand<\/i>\u00a0postulates <\/i>that the sole legitimate human stance is solipsism.\u00a0All are a priori suppositions based on limited and personally biased observations rather than any verified fundamental. Each writer “proved” his point with copious anecdotes. But, as Ronald Reagan showed, anecdotes prove nothing about generalities, only about\u00a0possibilities.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In fact, while the models of Freud, Marx, and Machiavelli (also Madison, Keynes, Hayek, Gandhi etc.) attracted followers, I think a stronger case can be made for\u00a0tribalism\u00a0as a driver of history.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

….When the ambient fear level is high, as in civil war-riven Lebanon, loyalties are kept close to home. Me against my brother. My brother and me against our cousins. We and our cousins against the world. Alliances merge and are broken quickly, along a sliding scale that appears to be remarkably consistent.\u00a0The general trend seems to be this:\u00a0the lower the ambient fear level declines, the more broadly<\/i> a human being appears willing to define those tribal boundaries, and the more generous he or she is willing to be toward the stranger.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Lexington Green –\u00a0\u201c\u2026 a cyber attack has the potential of existential consequence.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Based upon the societal dependence on these systems, and the interdependence of the various services and capabilities, the Task Force believes that the integrated impact of a cyber attack has the potential of existential consequence. While the manifestation of a nuclear and cyber attack are very different, in the end, the existential impact to the United States is the same.”<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Bruce Kesler<\/strong> –A Marine Murdered In Chattanooga Comes Home With Proper Respect<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

War on the Rocks<\/strong> –\u00a0CHINA\u2019S NEW INTELLIGENCE WAR AGAINST THE UNITED STATES<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0IRAN DEAL OR NO DEAL<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Small Wars Journal<\/em> –\u00a0Despite Nuclear Deal, US and Iran Locked in Regional Shadow War<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Why Troops Avoid a Fight<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fabius Maximus<\/b> –\u00a0Martin van Creveld: Our armies become pussycats, part\u00a01<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Martin van Creveld: Our armies become pussycats, part\u00a02<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Chet Richards –\u00a0On OODA Loops, Fast and\u00a0Slow<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Scholar’s Stage –\u00a0“The OODA Loop, Ancient China Style”<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Venkat Rao –The Boydian Dialectic<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Steven Metz – Why Americans won’t like the New Middle East Order<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bridge –The Cockroach Approach: Bombing Our Own Failed Narrative<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Feral Jundi –Books: Composite Warfare, By Eeben Barlow<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Cicero Magazine<\/em> –Disarming the Profession of Arms: Why Disarm Servicemembers on Bases?<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Aeon Magazine<\/em> – Cheeseburger Ethics<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Smithsonian<\/em> –\u00a0How Geography Shaped Societies, From Neanderthals<\/em> to iPhones<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

RECOMMENDED VIEWING:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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