{"id":4569,"date":"2011-12-08T04:14:03","date_gmt":"2011-12-08T04:14:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=4569"},"modified":"2011-12-08T04:14:03","modified_gmt":"2011-12-08T04:14:03","slug":"updates-on-coin-is-dead-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=4569","title":{"rendered":"Updates on COIN is Dead Debate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From <strong>Major Mike Few<\/strong> of <strong>SWJ<\/strong> and <strong>Fabius Maximus<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p><strong>SWJ Blog (Few)<\/strong> \u00a0<a style=\"font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;\" href=\"http:\/\/smallwarsjournal.com\/blog\/rethinking-revolution\">Rethinking Revolution<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a style=\"font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;\" href=\"http:\/\/smallwarsjournal.com\/blog\/do-two-wrongs-make-a-right\">Do Two Wrongs Make a Right?<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>When is a revolution over, completed, fulfilled?\u00a0 Traditionally, we prefer to quantify revolutions as ending in a win, loss, or negotiated settlement.[1]\u00a0 While this framework is helpful for shaping theory, it neglects that reality is often much more complicated and messy.\u00a0 As John Maynard Keynes said, \u201cit is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique for thinking, which helps the possessor to draw correct conclusions.\u201d\u00a0 Simply put, it is only a guide towards understanding history and human nature.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8230;.<\/strong><strong>In his seminal work,\u00a0<em>Rethinking Insurgency<\/em>, Steven Metz challenged our community to rethink the existing assumptions and relearn how to counter insurgencies.[5]\u00a0 Moreover, over the past decade, scholars challenged the accepted military definition that an insurgency is \u201can organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict.\u201d \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yet, with all the evidence, scholarship, theories, and analysis, we continue to muddle through small wars. \u00a0Why? \u00a0Perhaps, we often choose mass over maneuver and speed over subtle influence in attempts to control the problem.\u00a0 Small wars are wicked problems.\u00a0 If we continue to plug and play the latest &#8220;new&#8221; idea to tame a problem, then we will just muddle along and only make the problem worse.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8230;.Before we can hope to distill any lessons learned from this past bloody decade of war and rewrite the existing counterinsurgency manual[7][8]\u00a0and find a suitable foreign policy for this new century, perhaps we should first seek to better understand the nature of revolution.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fabius Maximus &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com\/2011\/12\/06\/31616\/\" target=\"_blank\">COIN- Now that we See it Failed&#8230;.<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>and <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com\/2011\/12\/07\/31724\/\" target=\"_blank\">COIN, another difficulty&#8230;.<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>As we walk away from the Iraq and Af-Pak Wars, we face many questions about the future.\u00a0 Two of these are:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>When we should directly fight local insurgencies (what strategy)?<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>When we must do so, how should we do so (what doctrine)?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Given the historical record, this series of posts suggest the answers are:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>We go to fight local insurgencies only when necessary (IMO neither Af or Iraq were necessary after their governments were overthrown).<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>We lack reliable doctrine to fight local insurgencies abroad. The number of successes by foreign armies against local insurgencies is too few to draw firm conclusions (see section 3 in\u00a0<a title=\"FM\" href=\"http:\/\/fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com\/2011\/12\/06\/31616\/\" target=\"_blank\">the previous post<\/a>\u00a0for details).<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>That does not mean that counter-insurgency is impossible for foreign armies.\u00a0 It\u00a0suggests that repeating failed doctrines (Vietnam, Iraq, Af-Pak) will not work.\u00a0 As the\u00a0<a title=\"FM\" href=\"http:\/\/fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com\/2009\/12\/07\/first\/\" target=\"_blank\">old Alcoholics Anonymous saying goes<\/a>, insanity is repeating the same actions but expecting a different result.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Update:\u00a0\u00a0Not all foreign wars, or even all small foreign wars, are counter-insurgencies.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Major Mike Few of SWJ and Fabius Maximus: SWJ Blog (Few) \u00a0Rethinking Revolution\u00a0and\u00a0Do Two Wrongs Make a Right? When is a revolution over, completed, fulfilled?\u00a0 Traditionally, we prefer to quantify revolutions as ending in a win, loss, or negotiated settlement.[1]\u00a0 While this framework is helpful for shaping theory, it neglects that reality is often [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,126,198,78,336,127,161],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-coin","category-counterinsurgency","category-fabius-maximus","category-ideas","category-intellectuals","category-strategy","category-swj-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4569"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4569\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4570,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4569\/revisions\/4570"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}