{"id":48938,"date":"2016-02-21T18:03:21","date_gmt":"2016-02-21T18:03:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=48938"},"modified":"2016-02-21T18:03:21","modified_gmt":"2016-02-21T18:03:21","slug":"point-counter-point-aaron-zelin-phillip-smyth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=48938","title":{"rendered":"Point counter point: Aaron Zelin &#038; Phillip Smyth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[ by <strong>Charles Cameron<\/strong> &#8212; a simple <em>jeu d&#8217;esprit<\/em> ]<br \/>\n.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s actually rather sweet, and possibly a matter of GMTA, but <strong>Aaron Zelin<\/strong> and <strong>Dan Byman<\/strong> both favor a word I&#8217;m fond of myself: <em>archipelago<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/SPEC-DQ-Zelin-Byman.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-48939\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/SPEC-DQ-Zelin-Byman.png\" alt=\"SPEC DQ Zelin Byman\" width=\"602\" height=\"633\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-48939\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/SPEC-DQ-Zelin-Byman.png 602w, https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/SPEC-DQ-Zelin-Byman-285x300.png 285w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>**<\/p>\n<p>Aaron noted the commonalities of topic and phrasing, and tweeted:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-cards=\"hidden\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0xVzGm7cCg\">pic.twitter.com\/0xVzGm7cCg<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/azelin\/status\/701435339043307520\">February 21, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>to which <strong>Phillip Smyth<\/strong> responded:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-cards=\"hidden\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/azelin\">@azelin<\/a> Happens to the best of us&#8230;<br \/>That&#39;s why, post-coup, we go after editors first. \ud83d\ude09 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xuPDWP98eH\">pic.twitter.com\/xuPDWP98eH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Phillip Smyth (@PhillipSmyth) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PhillipSmyth\/status\/701438990407303168\">February 21, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>**<\/p>\n<p>Phillip&#8217;s example of imitation \/ flattery involves a pun on the name of the Prophet&#8217;s first battle, that of <strong>Badr<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/SPEC-DQ-Smyth-George.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-48942\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/SPEC-DQ-Smyth-George.png\" alt=\"SPEC DQ Smyth George\" width=\"602\" height=\"633\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-48942\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/SPEC-DQ-Smyth-George.png 602w, https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/SPEC-DQ-Smyth-George-285x300.png 285w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>**<\/p>\n<p>Please note that there is absolutely nothing to be gained from these juxtapositions but sheer delight &#8212; there&#8217;s no &#8220;actionable intelligence&#8221; therein &#8212; yet two extremely sharp analysts nevertheless find them of sufficient interest to exchange tweets about them.<\/p>\n<p>An eye for symmetries, similarities, parallelisms and oppositions will not always come up with useful correlations, but it&#8217;s nonetheless an aspect of mind that&#8217;s close to both creativity (<a href=\"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=9496\">see <strong>Arthur Koestler<\/strong><\/a>) and what <strong>bin Laden<\/strong> analyst <strong>Cindy Storer<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=27500\">in <strong>Manhunt<\/strong><\/a>) called &#8220;magic&#8221; &#8212; <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>not the analysts doing it, but other people who didn\u2019t have that talent referred to it as magic.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>**<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<li>Aaron Zelin, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/view\/the-islamic-states-archipelago-of-provinces\">The Islamic State&#8217;s Archipelago of Provinces<\/a>\n<li>Daniel Byman, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lawfareblog.com\/islamic-state-archipelago\">The Islamic State Archipelago<\/a>\n<li>Phillip Smyth, <a href=\"http:\/\/jihadology.net\/2013\/08\/12\/hizballah-cavalcade-breaking-badr-the-new-season-confirmation-of-the-badr-organizations-involvement-in-syria\/\">Hizballah Cavalcade: Breaking Badr<\/a>\n<li>Suzannah George, <a href=\"http:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2014\/11\/06\/breaking-badr\/\">Breaking Badr<\/a><\/li>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The <strong>useful <\/strong>analysis is in the sources, and the useful description of analytic magic is currently easily accessible at the 9&#8217;14&#8221; point in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=w06I6_aTuHc\">HBO&#8217;s <strong>Manhunt <\/strong>on YouTube<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ by Charles Cameron &#8212; a simple jeu d&#8217;esprit ] . It&#8217;s actually rather sweet, and possibly a matter of GMTA, but Aaron Zelin and Dan Byman both favor a word I&#8217;m fond of myself: archipelago. ** Aaron noted the commonalities of topic and phrasing, and tweeted: Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery pic.twitter.com\/0xVzGm7cCg [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[841,526,627,1151,625,45,1078,1047,1077,446,440,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aaron-zelin","category-charles-cameron","category-doublequotes","category-doubletweets","category-hipbone-analysis","category-iraq","category-is","category-isis","category-phillip-smyth","category-shia","category-syria","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48938"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48938\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48950,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48938\/revisions\/48950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}