{"id":50275,"date":"2016-05-23T13:45:50","date_gmt":"2016-05-23T13:45:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=50275"},"modified":"2016-05-23T13:45:50","modified_gmt":"2016-05-23T13:45:50","slug":"after-is-what-next-the-missing-apocalyptic-strand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/?p=50275","title":{"rendered":"After IS, what next? &#8212; the missing (apocalyptic) strand"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[ by <strong>Charles Cameron<\/strong> &#8212; four recent tweets, some lines of inquiry, &#038; no certain conclusion, no date certain ]<br \/>\n.<\/p>\n<p>The <strong>four recent tweets<\/strong> that set me off..<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ISIS?src=hash\">#ISIS<\/a> spokesman said that even if group loses <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Mosul?src=hash\">#Mosul<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Raqqah?src=hash\">#Raqqah<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Sirte?src=hash\">#Sirte<\/a>, it will not be defeated until it loses its faith-based fighting spirit<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; SITE Intel Group (@siteintelgroup) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/siteintelgroup\/status\/734128482834354176\">May 21, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"tr\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IS?src=hash\">#IS<\/a>: &quot;Do you think that you will be victorious if you killed [&#39;Umar] al-Sh\u00eesh\u00e2n\u00ee or Ab\u00fb Bakr [al-Baghd\u00e2d\u00ee] or Ab\u00fb Zayd [?] or Ab\u00fb &#39;Amr [?]&quot;<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Mr. Orange (@Mr0rangetracker) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mr0rangetracker\/status\/734165929253294082\">May 21, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Adnani?src=hash\">#Adnani<\/a> audiotape another sign of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ISIL?src=hash\">#ISIL<\/a> leaders in deep hiding, afraid to appear in public, or already dead. Days are numbered. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ISIS?src=hash\">#ISIS<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Daesh?src=hash\">#Daesh<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Brett McGurk (@brett_mcgurk) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/brett_mcgurk\/status\/734109055778729985\">May 21, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">ISIS knows Al Qaeda is planning to challenge ISIS in its stronghold \u2014 Syria <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Wq9ArSDbX2\">https:\/\/t.co\/Wq9ArSDbX2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Mike Walker (@New_Narrative) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/New_Narrative\/status\/734155728785670145\">May 21, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>**<\/p>\n<p>There are a multitude of voices now raising the question <strong>After ISIS< What Next?<\/strong> They can be heard from as far back as October 2014, onwards:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<li><strong>Al Arabiya English<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/views\/news\/middle-east\/2014\/10\/06\/What-comes-after-ISIS-defeat-.html\">What comes after ISIS\u2019 defeat?<\/a>\n<li><strong>Foreign Policy<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2015\/01\/06\/what-comes-after-the-islamic-state-is-defeated\/\">What Comes After the Islamic State Is Defeated?<\/a>\n<li><strong>Lexington Institute<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/lexingtoninstitute.org\/what-do-we-do-the-day-after-isis-is-defeated\/\">What Do We Do The Day After ISIS Is Defeated?<\/a>\n<li><strong>The National Interest<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/blog\/the-skeptics\/we-defeat-isis-then-what-14776\">We Defeat ISIS. Then What?<\/a>\n<li><strong>The Telegraph<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/12119815\/What-happens-once-Isil-is-defeated.html\">What happens once Isil is defeated?<\/a>\n<li><strong>Wilson Center<\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wilsoncenter.org\/event\/iraq-now-and-after-isis\">Iraq: Now and After ISIS<\/a>\n<li>The [Huffington] World Post, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/joseph-v-micallef\/the-middle-east-after-isi_b_9603946.html\">The Middle East after ISIS<\/a><\/li>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>and most recently:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<li><strong>The Atlantic<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/magazine\/archive\/2016\/05\/the-hell-after-isis\/476391\/\">The Hell After ISIS<\/a><\/li>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>If IS continues losing territory, as suggested in the tweets above, this question can only gain in force.<\/p>\n<p>**<\/p>\n<p>I have been following Islamic eschatology since 1998 or thereabouts, when I met <strong>David Cook<\/strong>, and I thought that what was at that time an eerily unappreciated question had at last made its way into informed consciousness after..<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<li>2002, <strong>David Cook<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Studies-Muslim-Apocalyptic-Antiquity-Early\/dp\/0878501428\">Studies in Muslim Apocalyptic<\/a>\n<li>2005, <strong>David Cook<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Contemporary-Apocalyptic-Literature-Religion-Politics\/dp\/0815630581\">Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature<\/a>\n<li>2011, <strong>J-P Filiu<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Apocalypse-Islam-Jean-Pierre-Filiu\/dp\/0520272641\">Apocalypse in Islam<\/a>\n<li>2014, <strong>Martin Dempsey<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defense.gov\/News\/News-Transcripts\/Transcript-View\/Article\/606917\">speech: IS has &#8220;an apocalyptic, end-of-days strategic vision&#8221;<\/a>\n<li>2015, <strong>Jessica Stern &#038; JM Berger<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/ISIS-State-Terror-Jessica-Stern\/dp\/0062395548\">ISIS: The State of Terror<\/a>\n<li>2015, <strong>Graeme Wood<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/magazine\/archive\/2015\/03\/what-isis-really-wants\/384980\/\">What ISIS Really Wants<\/a>\n<li>2015, <strong>Will McCants<\/strong>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/ISIS-Apocalypse-History-Strategy-Doomsday\/dp\/1250080908\">The ISIS Apocalypse<\/a><\/li>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>But no, the question I&#8217;m interested in has not been raised:<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Is there a more potent form of apocalyptic movement than the two we have most recently seen?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<li>a Mahdist movement, one focused on the army with black flags from Khorasan &#8212; AQ\n<li>a Caliphal movement, one focused on the establishment of the rightly-guided kingdom &#8212; IS<\/li>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>**<\/p>\n<p><strong>Four hints:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It seems to me that you can have a Caliphal (kingdom based), or a Mahdist (leader based) movement, and that the Caliphal approach, should IS be a clear failure as a global quasi-state, will be exhausted for quite some time &#8212; and that since AQ, to the extent that it is or was an apocalyptic movement, was one that looked to a future Mahdi, the only route &#8220;up&#8221; from either one would be the declaration of an actual Mahdi-claimant with armed insurrection to follow.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<li>The worst messianic movement, in terms of fatalities, would still be China&#8217;s 19th Century Taiping Rebellion, 20-30 million dead. Strangely enough, Gordon of Khartoum was involved.\n<li>The most recent and widely notable Mahdist rebellion was the Sudanese one that killed Gordon, led initially by Muhammad Ahmad al-Mahdi.\n<p><\/p>\n<li>The next highly plausible date for the appearance of a Mahdi would be at the start of the next Islamic century, 1500 AH \/ 2076 BCE, since ahadith suggest a Mujaddid or Reformer will be sent every 100 years, and there have been assertions that the Ummah will not endure longer than 1,500 years (see <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ahlalhdeeth.com\/vbe\/showthread.php?t=6934\">here<\/a> eg)<\/li>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>My guess is that we&#8217;ll have a cooling-off period in terms of Islamic apocalyptic if IS is seen to fail &#8212; but as they say, mortal mind cannot know the time of the end, and Allah knows best.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ by Charles Cameron &#8212; four recent tweets, some lines of inquiry, &#038; no certain conclusion, no date certain ] . The four recent tweets that set me off.. #ISIS spokesman said that even if group loses #Mosul #Raqqah #Sirte, it will not be defeated until it loses its faith-based fighting spirit &mdash; SITE Intel [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[205,622,526,1078,1047,753,897,139,1,769],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-al-qaida","category-apocalyptic","category-charles-cameron","category-is","category-isis","category-islam","category-jm-berger-2","category-media","category-uncategorized","category-will-mccants"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50275","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=50275"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50275\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50325,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50275\/revisions\/50325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=50275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=50275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zenpundit.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=50275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}