Egypt and the spider’s web

July 9th, 2013 by Charles Cameron

And Hilary Clinton? What with NSA hoovering, or better, dysoning up all the world’s communications, secret and otherwise, she must have seen both Mubarak’s fall and Morsi’s a mile off, eh? — and switched out Anne Patterson months ago, right? So we’d be well-placed for the turmoil that now ensues?

**

My sources for the DoubleQuote:

  • Steven Metz

  • Leah Farrall

    • And here, finally, for your consideration, is another tweet I liked:

    Anyone who claims to be an Egypt expert is kidding themself. We've been covering, living, breathing Egypt every single day & we all disagree

    — Deena Adel (@deena_adel) July 4, 2013

    G’day, all.

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    Posted in analytic, Charles Cameron, egypt, games, Hipbone Analysis, metacognition, Uncategorized | 8 comments

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    1. zen:

      July 9th, 2013 at 4:26 am

      “When, say, Castro hands over power to his brother, or Musharraf has to give up control of the Pakistani army, it’s like snipping a couple of threads in that spiders web
      .
       It is like snipping a spiders web. However, Castro chose to delegate power to his brother ( his longtime closest henchman) while the it was the Pakistani Army most senior brass that shook off Musharraf and not Musharraf who decided to cede direct command of the military. One is the cutter and the other is the cut

    2. Charles Cameron:

      July 9th, 2013 at 4:37 am

      Zen:
      .
      Heh — hence my phrase “Musharraf has to give up control” — I wasn’t suggesting Musharraf did the snipping, but that the situation played out that way.  But yah, clarity is good.
      .
      I guess my real point is that we may have a good sense of first order effects, a guestimate of second — but beyond that, we’re often in the dark, whether we’re in power, or in intelligence, or simply bystanding, half a world away.
       

    3. Kumail:

      July 9th, 2013 at 5:23 pm

      These two are by far the best takes on the crisis in Egypt I’ve read so far. 

      http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/06/29/turbulence-ahead-for-egypt/

      http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/garfinkle/2013/07/01/note-to-clueless-msm-types-abdel-fattah-al-sisi-memorize-that-name/

      The power of modern military institutions in (largely) pre-modern societies such as Egypt and Pakistan explains a lot for me.

    4. Charles Cameron:

      July 9th, 2013 at 6:40 pm

      Thanks!

    5. Grurray:

      July 9th, 2013 at 8:32 pm

      This isn’t about Egypt but is about sorting out the configurations and teasing out the tensions:

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23037957 

       

    6. Charles Cameron:

      July 10th, 2013 at 2:05 am

      Very useful for some of my purposes, too!  thanks!

    7. Grurray:

      July 10th, 2013 at 5:02 am

      One more I would like to share if you don’t mind me butting in too much.
      Kellen’s interviews were classics.  Here is a strategy paper from 1971
      *
      http://goo.gl/Jy3LZ
      *
      You might find pages 9 & 10 interesting.
      The VC were relentless about morale. They operated in brutal almost torturous conditions, but if a 
      commander noticed anyone’s spirits down they would immediately initiate this group therapy. 
      It was extremely effective and resulted in few desertions.
       

    8. Mr. X:

      July 23rd, 2013 at 5:30 am

      Speaking of @RobertCaruso (mentioned in the tweet above) he has @OathKeepers derangement syndrome. Seems that’s one group of bitterly clinging right wingers that really has him and other Beltway types freaked out.
      .
      https://twitter.com/robertcaruso/status/359528737538195457 
      .
      The rest of his obscenity laced rants against me are too vile to repeat on a family surfed website.