Prophecy, Poetry and Prediction
That data would be the “Afghan War Diary,” a record of 77,000 military logs dated between 2004 and 2009 that were spilled onto the internet two years ago by WikiLeaks. In a paper published Monday by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a team of researchers used the leaked logs to (mostly) accurately predict violence levels in Afghanistan for the year 2010. (Behind a paywall, alas, but a summary is available for free in .pdf.)
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I’m focused on minds and hearts, as the saying goes — but I’ll admit that mines and HK417s are also significant.
If the quant side of the house can reduce casualties, I’m all for that.
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Michael G. Moore:
July 18th, 2012 at 2:26 am
I suspect that intelligent gang/insurgent members will be spoofing the data trail, with ease, in order to wrong foot any attempt at predicting their next move(s). Omitting this “intelligent” dimension in policing them, then, will simply consolidate the “survival of the smartest”. But, then, that’s nothing new…
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Great post though. Many thanks.
Charles Cameron:
July 18th, 2012 at 3:23 am
Most welcome.
make up blog:
July 11th, 2014 at 7:21 am
A?, this was an incredibly good post. Taking a few minutes and actual effot to make a great article… but what ?an I say… I hesitate a whoe
lot and never manage to gget anything done.