Will Haiti Katrina-ize the Obama Administration?
The news trickling out of Haiti is apocalyptic. The president of Haiti is homeless. Hundreds of thousands may be dead. The Haitian state, rickety and corrupt at the best of times, has collapsed along with the government buildings. Gangs of machete-wielding looters rule the capital city as supplies of food and clean water run dangerously low. The magnitude of the disaster may exceed the capacity of even the U.S. to respond unilaterally.
A humanitarian crisis of epic proportions is brewing and anything short of a speedy and massive response in the next 48 hours and a restoration of order in Haiti will inevitably draw comparisons between Haiti and New Orleans under Bush.
January 15th, 2010 at 3:02 am
anything short of a speedy and massive response in the next 48 hours and a restoration of order in Haiti will inevitably draw comparisons between Haiti and New Orleans under Bush.
There are a few minor differences between Katrina and the earthquake in Haiti. Obviously, Haiti is not in the United States, so no U.S. government agency is directly responsible for overseeing relief efforts. And it’s an island with a single airport. And earthquakes are not predictable the way hurricanes are. And the devastation is far, far worse. Only professionals will be allowed in, and there are not enough of those. So it will be a catastrophe. But I suppose some will see the ensuing suffering as an opportunity to attack Obama. I say, good luck with that.
January 15th, 2010 at 3:20 am
Bush did not take heat for incompetence during Katrina, so much as he was demonized as a racist ; as someone who just didn’t care because many New Orleans residents were black. After all, he is a white Republican, which means he must be a racist. Obama is a black Democrat. The racism charge won’t even be attempted, let alone stick. And even if the response gets mishandled, I’m sure it is Bush’s fault… probably because he’s a racist.
January 15th, 2010 at 3:28 am
Well, both Bush and Clinton are involved in Haiti relief efforts Maybe there will be enough blame to go around.
January 15th, 2010 at 4:18 am
The devastation in Haiti is not the fault of the U.S. or President Obama, nor is Haiti American territory. However, as Mithras pointed out, the situation is far worse than Katrina and therein lies the problem. Mathematically, without clean water, food and a way to re-establish basic sanitation and bury bodies ASAP, we are looking at horrific stats within 30 days as problems compound that are just not normally associated with the Western Hemisphere. Chris Albon could probably break down the health implications but a one airport choke point does not bode well and the US will be expected to "handle" the crisis due to geographic proximity.
January 15th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
This was an unanticipated natural disaster in the most desolate and impoverished nation (?) in the Western hemisphere. "Popular blame" (where elements of popular culture affix blame to political enemies—read anyone right of center) is a political tool won’t be leveled in the mainstream against the administration regardless the outcome; for in their world intentions are good enough. The administration seems to being doing everything possible, given the constraints. Agree w/you Zen, the numbers do no bode well in the short-term. The WSJ is reporting that Aristide, the exiled despot, wants to return to Haiti to lend assistance and lead…his return would not be a surprise and would ensure further misery in a most miserable place.
January 15th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
This is a fair assessment. Keep in mind the UN/Brazil never got the violent gangs under control that are now apparently reconstituting and stirring up trouble already, in addition to engaging in opportunistic looting. The administration failed to set reasonable expectations, leading to the media and aid groups fostering unrealistic expectations amid a destroyed metropolis with a profoundly emaciated and battered populace (even before the quake). This will sink Obama 5-10 points in the opinion polls once/if the real violence gets underway, especially with the media not reporting it accurately as Mogadishu II.
The US is left holding the bag on this one, since no one else is going to take the lead or even a significant share. We now have a choice of either getting our hands dirty for the long haul and treating Haiti as the 51st American state the way we have Afghanistan and Iraq, or we can be good Samaritans for a few weeks and then try to firewall the nasty aftermath of unrealized expectations and minimal authority, especially with the flood of tens of thousands of Haitian boat people to US shores in the early spring.
January 15th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Btw, on this question and others relating to Haiti and the US response, Galrahn is absolutely required reading this morning.
http://www.informationdissemination.net/2010/01/calm-before-storm-in-haiti.html
January 15th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
Restore Haiti to what? Yemen. No wait Yemen is more functional and organized than Haiti was before the earthquake.This is the easy time. Everybody, Israel, France, America, China, Bill Clinton can rush in with troops and dogs and guys in fire suits to perform heroic rescue fueled by no sleep and lots of coffee and adrenaline. Humans are very good at that. Its how we are built.In 6 months when there are no cameras and George Clooney has Angelina have moved who will be there then? The "nation builders" with billions raised from which countries? Maybe we can take the $100 billion Hillary pledged to fight global warming.17%+ real US unemployment and a $1.4 trillion deficit last two years and counting. Best we can do is patch them up a bit and drop a few planes of food and follow Eddie’s advice and fence it off and tow the boats to Venezeula and Cuba.
January 15th, 2010 at 6:17 pm
I doubt Mr. Obama will pay any big political bills for failures in the Haiti response. Looking at the effects of the Rwanda genocide on the Clinton Administration is, I think, instructive. Mr. Obama will take some criticism no matter what he does–that’s the way our system works–but I don’t think it will translate into votes.
January 15th, 2010 at 6:33 pm
I want to second Eddie’s comment above. Galrahn’s post addresses this point directly and IMO is right on the money. Required reading.
January 16th, 2010 at 4:15 am
Zen you may be right, another Katrina in the works. General Honere’ (from katrina fame) was just on Anderson Cooper CNN talking about what mess the whole operation is. He said drop the rest of the 82nd tomorrow morning and get this situation fixed. Start having the local popuation clear landing pads for helicopters to land and distibute water,food,etc. stop worrying about security……just help the people.
January 16th, 2010 at 6:01 pm
Galrahn’s post was outstanding!
.
Slap.
.
Any idea why Gen. Honere was not tapped this time around? He would have seemed to be a logical pick.
January 16th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Zen, no I don’t know for sure. He is retired now so maybe he had other more pressing duties. Great Article from SWJ Blog…….the operation should be called Maneuver Welfare per Retired USMC Colonel with a lot of experience in these ops……applies the princicples of Maneuver Warfare to Human Welfare. Great Stuff to.
http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/350-anderson.pdf
January 16th, 2010 at 11:26 pm
That Galrahn link is good. I don’t know what will happen, but I sort of tend to think he won’t be blamed for any poor response because it seems we are pouring in a lot of resources and Haiti is not the US, as others in the thread have stated.
.
At any rate – apocalyptic is right. It’s the children I have a hard time thinking about – they are so vulnerable already, and, then, when something like this happens! God bless the aid agencies, military, etc. God Speed, too.
January 17th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Haiti is not Obama’s fault, and it is not his responsibility and he won’t be blamed for it.Katrina was not Bush’s fault, but he got blamed anyway. It was destructive to Bush because (1) the news media set him up for it in advance and used it as a club and (2) he was so politically inept that he managed to get blamed for something that was caused by decades of Democrat party corruption and stupidity at the state and local level. At some point, incompetence deserves to be punished, and Bush’s political incompetence was limitless, so in that sense he got what he deserved.Haiti will have zero negative impact on Obama, I predict.