Red lines and the credibility arms race

April 26th, 2013 by Lynn C. Rees

His choices as a parent are there “because human motives are variable”. As such, they will tend to vary, moment by moment, place by place, tattoo by tattoo. The president should carefully consider where and when he draws red lines, especially in public and especially when publicity is a key component of his red line’s hypothetical deterrent effect. Better to learn to gauge when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em now before the sarin calls of adolescence come around. Only then maybe there will be time enough for counting when the teenage years are done.

Page 4 of 4 | Previous page

Posted in complex systems, counterinsurgency, deterrence, diplomacy, guardian, Human Rights, illusion, insurgency, law enforcement, long tail, Lynn C. Rees, metaphor, non-state actors, nuance / subtlety, public diplomacy, stochastic, superempowered individuals, system administration, wicked problems | 3 comments

Previous post:
Next post:

  1. larrydunbar:

    April 27th, 2013 at 9:24 pm

    Where do you get your information that Obama wants to deter?

  2. larrydunbar:

    April 27th, 2013 at 10:11 pm

    I mean in the context of your posting, which, by the way, I think is a really great post, where is it written that Bear trying to deter anyone?

    *
    As you point out, when someone crosses the red line the Action that follows just depends on the person who drew the line, and not on the person crossing the line. 

    Is there any indication in Obama’s handling of terrorists that leads you to assume he wants to deter those crossing the line? I mean the option of deterring is also the option of destroying those crossing the line.

    *
    Perhaps the question should be: given the 10 plus years of war, how is our military oriented in the destruction of those crossing such a line?

    *
    Then again, what is Freud’s supposed quote about the Irish, and should we examine how many Irish are in the top levels of command of our forces?

    To me, the party of Republicans have become a bunch of false prophets that see the “End Times” within their lifetimes, while the Democrats have tried to remain the party of grownups.

    *
    The downside has been that the Republicans honestly believe that the Democrats are losing. Perhaps the question should be, “to who?” 

  3. Madhu:

    May 1st, 2013 at 12:50 pm

    Hey! Welcome to posting here, L.C. Rees. Good Codevilla link!