Shlok Vaidya’s Singularity of Warfare

Nice.

Shlok posts up on the future of war in response to Lexington’s Green’s prospective speaking engagement:

The History and Future of Warfare

…..The history of warfare looks something like this cycle that repeats itself within the governance market – between an insurgent governance platform and the dominant platform of the time. Victory is gauged by market-share of each platform.

1. Tribe vs. Tribe
2. Tribe vs. State
3. State vs State
   1. Marked by the invention of the nuke.

1. Where we are now. Networks are essentially information empowered tribes.

1. When the nation-state collapses into its component resilient communities and combats the networks that won.
2. Insurgencies and private military corporations act as governance platforms.

1. Advanced information flows decreases mass requirements and increases decentralization.
2. Trend continues until post-human age.

1. When the difference between man and machine is negligible.

*Acceleration really takes off when the network barrier is broken.

I like the flow in the outline. Potential countervailing trends to Shlok’s model? Here’s a couple:

• Aggressive migration/refugees-in-arms – think Hutu militiamen fleeing to the Congo from Tutsi rebels, but scaled up for a failing great or regional power.
• Rogue nuclear events will cause a countervailing, centralizing, “circling the wagons” effect that will temporarily strengthen states and allow them to “take off the gloves” against networked opponents.