A Short Analysis on The Whyte-Barnett Sino-American Grand Strategy Proposal
A few comments on the proposed Whyte-Min-Barnett Grand Strategy Executive Agreement for a Sino-American partnership that Dr. Barnett has been deeply engaged with the past few months.
First, a caveat: while Tom has involved me in aa few of his past projects, I was not involved in this one and know only what I have read recently. Secondly, while I know a bit about China in an academic sense, it is not an area of research for me nor am I up to speed on the current politics of China’s generational transfer of power/power struggle. Those readers who are avid China watchers should chime 
in with comments.
As an overview, I think the proposal’s specific terms should be viewed less seriously individually than the gesture itself, which represents in my view a very significant trial balloon signal from China’s leadership that they see a need to negotiate a successor to the long outgrown cornerstone of Chinese-American relations, the Shanghai Communique, signed during Nixon’s historic summit with Mao. A new agreement would provide some updated “rules of the road” that would defuse potential and existing tensions and allow the US and China to tackle some urgent problems in the global economy. By using a semi-official independent set of pundits ( Whyte and Min) and a maverick private sector American geostrategist ( Tom) with close ties to the Pentagon, China can advance it’s talking points and interest in negotiating without any loss of face that an official inquiry risks as a result of America’s fractious domestic partisan politics.
Read up on the secret diplomatic minuet that ensued between the US and China 1969-1972.
China’s leadership seems to have invested a sizable heavyweight participation in this proposal, Tom cites:
– Former Minister of Foreign Affairs;
– Former UN ambassador,
– Former U.S. ambassador,
– Former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the PLA,
– Former Military Attaché to North Korea and Israel,
– Former Vice Minister of Commerce,
– President of Shanghai Institutes of International Studies,
– China’s Central Party School Institute of International Strategic Studies,
– Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs,
– China Center for International Economic Exchanges,
– China Institute For International Strategic Studies,
– China Foundation for International & Strategic Studies,
– Boao Forum,
– China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.
This has resulted in a document that unsurprisingly leans strongly towards China’s interpretation of a good Sino-American partnership but this proposal is not holy writ, it is a red flag ( pun intended) for bargaining to begin. A plea, really by a leadership craving greater certainty, medium term security and “recognition” ( i.e. “face” or “respect” – this is very much like Brezhnev and Kosygin deeply desiring that the USSR be seen as an equal to the US, except unlike the Soviets, China actually has a productive economy) Imagine a US doc shepherded by a comparable set of former and current powerbrokers, the Council of Foreign Relations, CNAS, Carnegie, CNA, SSI, Brookings, AEI, Hoover, the chairmen of the Republican and Democratic Parties and the president of Harvard. Would that catch the attention of foreign observers?
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