Iranian Assassination – Narco-Cartel Plot Charged
* Proximity – Iran could more easily, with less risk and with far greater likelihood of success, carry out acts of anti-American terrorism closer to home in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan the Gulf States, even in Saudi Arabia or Egypt. Acts of terrorism in the American homeland risk a massive overreaction by Washington ( the US only needs the Navy to deal out severe consequences to Iran) which might welcome a legitimate pretext to bomb all of Iran’s suspected nuclear facilities and national security sites.
* Self-Preservation by the Mexican narco-cartels make such cooperation with Iran less likely, having the example of their Colombian predecessors in the 1980’s before them when they raised the ire of the USG sufficiently. The narcos have their hands full fighting the Mexican Army and one another without adding the CIA, Global Predator drones or the SEALs to their plate.
* Friends of MeK – By some miraculous deus ex machina, the cultish, 1970’s era Iranian Marxoid terrorist group, the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MeK) have spent a wealth of funds to buy the lobbying services of a glittering array of former top US national security officials and general officers – despite being on the State Department’s official terrorist list.
….Among the new faces: former Indiana Congressman Lee Hamilton (D), who once chaired the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and who served as vice chairman of the 9/11 Commission; Ambassador Dell Dailey, who was the State Department’s Coordinator for Counterterrorism from July 2007 to April 2009; General Michael Hayden, director of the CIA from 2006 to 2009; and not one, but two former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Former Attorney General Michael Mukasey, former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Walter Slocombe and ex-Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-NJ) also spoke.
In what should be a national scandal, those names are not even a comprehensive list of the very influential former politicians, K Street lobbyists and Beltway law firms accepting payments to whisper in the ears of current officials in the national security community, regarding Iran, on behalf of the MeK. Not sure how it is legal to do so either, since aiding a group on the State Department’s list by providing services normally can get you hauled into Federal court pronto, if you are an ordinary American citizen. A most curious situation….
I have no brief for Iran, the regime is a dedicated enemy of the United States, but a group of exiled Iranian Marxist-terrorists who used to work for Saddam Hussein hardly have our best interests at heart.
It will be interesting to watch this case unfold, but in the meantime, opinions are welcome in the comments, particularly on the Mexican narco-cartel angle.
Hat tip to James Bennett.
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chris:
October 12th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Someone made a comment about lack of credibility, since this sounded like a movie plot and I remembered there was an analogous event in Scarface.
Cheryl Rofer:
October 12th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
Juan Cole has what I think is the most plausible theory so far: it was a renegade Iranian drug-lord operation.
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I’ll also note that it seems to be a response to recent Iranian offers to negotiate. Every time a negotiation is in view, something like this comes up. I’m reminded of the FBI’s arrest of Gennadi Zakharov just before the Reykjavik summit in 1986. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that this sort of thing is an attempt by a government bureau to undermine foreign relations, just that maybe the people in those bureaus think that it’s good to look strong going into a negotiation.
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That doesn’t eliminate the possibility that people further up the chain of command share this belief, too, or that it is accurate in some cases. Just that it’s hard to know which cases until it’s too late.
Dave Schuler:
October 12th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
One quibble: this was not a terrorist plot. The complaint makes it clear that the objective was to murder Adel al-Jubeir and that other casualties were irrelevant. That’s no terrorist plot.
zen:
October 14th, 2011 at 4:55 am
Hi Cheryl & Dave – "Terrorism" may not have been the primary intent here, as the main suspect appears to be a wealthy nebbish/ass-clown with a possible drug connection in the IRGC, but if a KSA or Israeli diplomat had been killed or kidnapped, I think that would have been the political impression most ppl would have taken from it.