[ by Mark Safranski – a.k.a “zen”]

A remarkably blunt article on SF/SOF (“special forces” is being used as an umbrella term for both) in the context of policy and strategy, from the perspective of an emerging great power by LTG Prakosh Katoch of the Indian Army. The American example of SOCOM in Afghanistan/Iraq/GWOT has obviously had an impact here, as has the negative example of Pakistani use of terrorists as proxy forces and ISI covert operatives for direct action in Indian territory and elsewhere. Quite aside from global conflicts and the bilateral rivalry with Pakistan, India also faces more than a dozen long term irregular conflicts with their own dynamics, such as the Naxalite–Maoist insurgency , which Katoch places in the context of Chinese strategic ambitions against India.

A must read.

Optimizing the Potential of Special Forces

….In India, the lack of strategic culture, more on account of keeping the military out from strategic military decision making, has led the hierarchy to believe that conventional forces coupled with nuclear clout can deter us from irregular threats. Nothing can be farther from the truth. Pakistan, though conventionally inferior, has been successfully playing her ‘thousand cuts policy’ knowing full well that India has failed to develop the required deterrent. It is our inability to find a cure to this Achilles’ heel, that has led China, which was hitherto using Pakistan as proxy to wage irregular war on India, now directly aids and supports insurgent and terrorist outfits inside India.

….Why the US has managed to secure its mainland post 9/11 is not only because of an efficient Homeland Security organisation but because the US Special Forces (USSF) are operating in 200 countries including India. Significantly, USSF have undeclared tasks such as conducting proactive, sustained ‘man-hunts’ and disrupt operations globally; building partner capacity in relevant ground, air and maritime capabilities in scores of countries on a steady – state basis; helping generate persistent ground, air and maritime surveillance and strike coverage over ‘under-governed’ areas and littoral zones and employing unconventional warfare against state-sponsored terrorism and trans-national terrorist groups globally. Before 26/11, Al-Qaeda had planned similar operations against New York but could not because the USSF had infiltrated Al-Qaeda. One cannot guard the house by simply barricading it. You must patrol the streets and the area outside.

Growing inter-dependence and interlinking of terrorist groups regionally and internationally should be a matter of serious concern. It is not the US alone that has deployed its Special Forces abroad. This is the case with most advanced countries including UK, Russia, Israel, China and even Pakistan. Pakistan’s SSG was operating with the Taliban in Afghanistan and has been active in Jammu and Kashmir, Nepal and Bangladesh, primarily training anti-India forces. There is a strong possibility of their presence in the Maldives and Sri Lanka as well, aside from presence within India. The Chinese have been smarter. For all the development projects throughout the globe, including in Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan-POK, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Seychelles, contracts underway by PLA-owned/affiliated companies employ serving and veteran PLA soldiers and disguised Special Forces with assigned tasks, including evacuation of Chinese citizens from that country in case of emergencies. 

Read the rest here.

[ Charles Cameron — opening of my review of Vahid Brown & Don Rassler, Fountainhead of Jihad: The Haqqani Nexus, 1973-2012 for Pragati magazine ]
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Deep insight into the Haqqani Network

Haqqani Network is at the centre of a nexus of jehadi violence in a triangle of relations with the Pakistani Taliban, the Pakistani military and al-Qa’ida.

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by Charles Cameron
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Charlie Wilson, the gaudy US congressman from Texas whose support for arming the mujahideen during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan gave the name Charlie’s War to George Crile’s book (and the Tom Hanks feature adaptation of the same name), drank, lusted, flirted, bribed and persuaded with cheerful abandon — and once referred to Jalaluddin Haqqani as “goodness personified.”

That same Jalaluddin Haqqani, Vahid Brown and Don Rassler argue in their book, Fountainhead of Jihad: the Haqqani Nexus, 1973-2012, was pushing the line of obligatory global jihad even before Abdullah Azzam, and was the first to recruit Arab “foreign fighters” to the jihad back in the 1980s. The network that paragon of goodness established is still, some forty years later, continuing in a tradition that began before the Durand Line was scrawled across a map, already in place when the British attempted to ‘take’ Afghanistan in the First Afghan War of 1839 — and that has arguably prevailed repeatedly in that mountainous, mutinous region against all comers since Iskandar tried his own fortune at what would later be called the Great Game.

Read the rest at Pragati

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The book, from the admirable Hurst Publishers in London and Columbia University Press in the US is available on Amazon and elsewhere.

Pragati is the magazine of India’s Takshashila Institution.

[ by Charles Cameron — the four goats go with the woman, the cow called Bessie belongs with Hiyakawa’s Ladder of Abstraction ]
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My friend the anthropologist Peter van der Werff recently wrote this paragraph about a woman he met in India:

The very poor woman explained me she and her four goats needed the shadow of a tree to escape from the blistering afternoon sun in their semi-arid part of India. There was a tree at the edge of the village, but the owner did not allow her to come near that tree. Therefore, she and her goats suffered from the heat, at the cost of her health and the productivity of the goats.

I was reminded of SI Hayakawa‘s Ladder of Abstraction.

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Caution: you really do need, as it says, to “read” this image from the bottom up…

See Bessie, the Cow, in SI and AR Hayakawa, Language in Thought and Action, pp. 83-85, 5th ed..

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Why did I think of Hayakawa’s ladder?

Here are two other things m’friend Peter had to say about the woman and her goats, the merciless sun, and that tree with its abundance of merciful shade:

As long as economists don’t include oppression and exploitation in their models, they cannot understand poverty.

and:

Such cruel relationships occur in many of the 750,000 villages of India. Without including those oppressive and exploitative realities, real poverty is not captured. We may invite economists to fit this reality in the computer.

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We humans can do it. But how do we configure models that can hold those levels of granularity and abstraction — of individual human concern and global decision-making necessity — close enough together to give our grand plans humane flexibility?

I suspect writers such as Lawrence Wright know more about this than the number crunchers — and that the well-selected anecdote must become as significant as the well-chosen statistic …

[ by Charles Cameron — Khorasan, black banners, the Ghazwa-e-Hind — when will the updating ever stop? ]
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It looks as though I first realized that “the black banners of Khorasan” was a meme I should be “eyes out” for was in July 2007, when John Robb pointed us to a piece by Syed Saleem Shahzad on events at the Red Mosque

For the al-Qaeda leadership sitting in the tribal areas, the situation is fast evolving into the promised battle of Khorasan. This includes parts of Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan from where the Prophet Mohammed promised the “end of time” battle would start.

That reference to Khorasan in turn led me back to a slightly earlier Washington Post piece where the Khorasan / black banners motif was clearly set forth, along with a pointed comment from Andrew Black, co-founder of Thistle Intelligence Group:

The battles today, like those against the Soviet occupiers, are also fought with religious verve. The Taliban and al-Qaida fight under a black flag connoting the participation of Islam’s prophet in their battle for Khorasan, the ancient name for the region centered around Afghanistan.

Khorasan increasingly features in the militants’ videos and the name was taped to the leg of a suicide bomber who killed 24 people in Pakistan’s Northwest Province this spring.

“One should not underestimate the theological importance of Khorasan to aspiring mujahedeen; particularly those who are only able to initially view the conflict through the Internet,” said Black.

Hamid Gul was in Shahzad’s piece too, talking about the Red Mosque and the Red Fort — and here, too, I likely made my first acquaintance with the motif of the Ghazwa-e-Hind, symbolized by the wish to plant Pakistan’s flag on Delhi’s Red Fort:

It is a pity that our army was preparing youths to seize Lal Qala [the Red Fort of Delhi] and they ended up seizing the Lal Masjid,” Gul said.

Both these memes have been around longer than I have, but back then they didn’t seem to be attracting much attention in the west.

Now they’re cropping up all over — and I’m (to switch metaphors in mid-stream) paddling hard to keep up.

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The black flags are alive and well this week, as shown in this video of the graduation of a new batch of the Free Army fighters in Syria:

Khorasan too, as seen in the image from the new magazine Azan at the top of this post — but where does Azan itself come from?

B Raman writes:

It is not yet clear who has started “Azan”. One suspect is the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is the Pakistani Taliban. The other suspect is Al Qaeda headquarters in the South Waziristan area of Pakistan.

I’m interested in this question, because Azan had an overview of the various fronts of contemporary jihad, and an image that invokes both Khorasan and Jerusalem isn’t exactly “local” in focus. And that brings me to that other meme of interest here — the Ghazwa-e-Hind — which as I pointed out recently ius also mentioned in Azan, though not a huge focus there.

But if Azan is indeed a TTP product, then this info from Mr Orange:

would indicate they find the Ghazwa of more than passing interest…

[ by Charles Cameron — more of some familiar ZP themes, now in a new container ]
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There are several matters of special interest to me that I’d like to draw your attention to in the new magazine, Azan, just issued from the Afghanistan / Pakistan region:

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First, Azan has a major article devoted to the Dajjal [pp. 38 ff.], the end times figure in Islam equivalent to the Christian antichrist. Here’s the introduction:

The world today stands nearer to the Day of Judgment than ever. 1434 years after the migration of the last Prophet (May Allah’s Blessings be upon him), the conflict between the satan and the human being is nearing its final stage. It is therefore crucial that the world events that are unfolding themselves in quick succession be viewed by the and analyzed by the Muslims in the light of the Divine Shariah. Of the Islamic scholars who have dedicated themselves to this pristine cause is Maulana ‘Asim Umer (May Allah Protect him) whose books regarding Islamic eschatology have proved invaluable in guiding the Ummah through these troubled times. In addition, the Maulana (HA) is, by his self, part of the global Jihad caravan that is seeking to implement the Khilafah on Allah’s Earth. This article is about the state of the world before the advent of Dajjal, the false Messiah (Antichrist in the Biblical Tradition). It carries an eerie resemblance to the world we live in today.

It looks as though this excerpt comes from “Third World War and Dajjal: Maulana ‘Asim ‘Umar Page 111-114 8th Edition” [p. 41].

Sadly, I lack Urdu — along with Bangla, Arabic and most everything else.

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Second, the “sign of the times” that’s emphasized in the article — the “fitna of the Dajjal” — is one that would appeal to those who already mistrust world leaders and the press…

The truth would be indistinguishable from falsehood and the callers to misguidance would be plentiful. The propaganda during his time would be so ghastly that the truth would be presented as falsehood and the falsehood would be presented as the truth. And this twisted reality would be broadcast to the entire world. The enemies of humanity would be shown as saviors while the real saviors of humanity would be shown as “terrorists.”

That is why the Prophet Muhammad explained the Fitnah of Dajjal in great detail.

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Third, there’s a sidebar to that article from al-Awlaki [p.41], titled Shaykh Anwar Al-Awlaki (RA) on the Final Battle. He suggests we are nearing the end times:

So the upcoming battle will be either lose it all or win it all and that is part of al-Malhama. It will be the final battle between Kufr and Iman; it will be a battle that will give victory to this Muslim Ummah. It’s not the end of it all as you still have Dajjal, Ya’juj and Ma’juj; but that battle will be the battle that will establish the Islamic Khilafah on a global scale.

So this is an indication that we are getting close to those times. Now, if we are getting close to those times, you really don’t want to be sitting on the sidelines and lose out on all of this reward in this Golden Era; because it is a Golden Era. Upon reading these ahadith, people would wish they were there; and here we are living in those times sitting on the sidelines just as Shaykh ‘Abdullah Yusuf ‘Azzam (rahimahullah) said, “The Jihad was a market that opened, people made a lot of money, and then the market closed.” It’s not going to last forever; if you sit behind, if you hesitate, if you are reluctant, then you will miss out because the chance only comes once.

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Fourth, in a round-up of jihadist fronts from around the world, there are a few paragraphs devoted to the Ghazwah e-Hind, termed here “the Jihad of Hind” [pp. 15-16]:

As for the Jihad of Hind (present-day India, Pakistan and Bangladesh), it comes in a Hadith:

Abu Huraira (RA) narrates that, “The Prophet Muhammad promised us the Jihad of Hind. If I get a chance to be part of that then I would spend my whole wealth and life in that. Then if I’m martyred, I’ll become the best of martyrs and if I return alive, then I will be a free-from-hell Abu Huraira.” [Sunnan Al-Nisai]

“Thauban (RA) narrates in a Marfoo’ Hadith that the Messenger of Allah said that there are two Jama’ahs (groups) in my Ummah for whom Allah Has Decreed salvation from Hell. One of these Jama’ahs is the one that will wage Jihad in Hind and the second Jama’ah is the one that will wage Jihad with Isa (AS) after he descends during the last days.” [Tibrani Shareef]

With such glad tidings from the Messenger of Allah [saw], the Mujahideen of Pakistan have their firm sights on freeing both India and Pakistan from the rule of the disbelieving rulers and to establish Shariah in all these lands once more. May Allah Grant victory to them! Ameen!

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And finally, there’s mention of the obligatory black banners of Khorasan [pp. 13-15]:

Black flags were unfurled from Khorasaan just as the Prophet Muhammad [saw] had foretold:

“Black flags will emerge from Khorasaan, and nothing will hold them back until they plant (their flags) in Eeliyah (Jerusalem).” [Sunnan At- Tirmidhi]

So, if indeed these Taliban are the flag bearers mentioned in the Hadith, then they shall inshAllah march forth to and conquer Jerusalem. And this is a note to the “powers” of today. In fact, the Shariah of the Taliban gained such acceptance with Allah The Exalted, that He Made the land of Afghanistan the base for the start of the global Jihad movement.

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The black flags of Khorasaan became being unfurled all around and the sacred call to Tawheed (monotheism) was renewed.

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There is plenty more, of course, and I’ve cherry-picked the bits that bear on specific themes I have been exploring here at ZP that have end times relevance.

Aaron Zelin has made a .pdf of the magazine available via Jihadology. Bahukutumbi Raman discusses it from an Indian intelligence perspective on his blog. Reuters looks at what the magazine has to say about drones. And no doubt others will be providing analysis from various other perspectives in the coming days.