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HistoryGuy99: “A National Case of Stockholm Syndrome”

Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

HistoryGuy99 in a spot-on post on the death of Kim Jong-Il:

A National Case of Stockholm Syndrome

….Kim Jong’s death moves the dynasty cycle to a point that follows the old Chinese proverb about dynasties or even successful families, that says, “Wealth only lasts three generations. The first generation builds it up, the second consolidates it, and the third squanders it.” 

This proverb is a metaphor for the rise and fall of dynasties down through the ages. The dynasties start when a charismatic visionary leader comes to power, and is followed by less talented and motivated leaders until the dynasty falls and chaos reins until another leader emerges to repeat the cycle. Most nations have moved beyond that cycle today. Even China, the source of the proverb, is moving forward with succeeding generations of leaders that unlike preceding dynasties, mirror institutions that have learned to seek new charismatic leadership, instead of relying on a family blood line that invites decadence to the point of being endemic.

Where does this leave people of North Korea? Listening to the mass wailing and demonstrations of grief as if each family had lost their beloved children, the thought that crossed my mind was that the entire country was a victim of the Stockholm Syndrome were the nation had their sense of esteem so suppressed that they actually came to love their masters. ….

Read the rest here.

Very much like the death of Joseph Stalin. Many of those shedding tears would have been en route to the Gulag had the old monster lived a few years longer.

 

Ruminating on Strategic Thinking

Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

“Let the Wookiee win….”

Warning! Thinking out loud in progress…..

Strategy is often described as the alignment of “Ends-Ways-Means” and “planning” to achieve important goals and several other useful definitions related to matters of war, statecraft and business.  That great strategists have come in many forms, not just between fields but demonstrating tremendous variance within them – ex.  George  Marshall vs. Alexander the Great vs. Carl von Clausewitz – indicates that strategic thinking is a complex activity in terms of cognition.

What are some of the mental actions that compose “strategic thinking” or “making strategy”? A few ideas:

  • Recognition of important variables
  • Assessment of the nature of each variable
  • Assessment of the relative importance of each variable
  • Assessment of the relationships among the variables
  • Assessment of the relationship between the variables and their strategic environment
  • Assessment of current “trajectory” or trend lines of variables
  • Assessment of costs to effect a change in the position or nature of each variable
  • Assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the variables as a functioning system
  • Recognition of systemic “choke points”, “tipping points” and feedback loops.

  • Probabilistic estimation
  • Logical reasoning
  • Introspection 
  • Extrapolation
  • Simplification
  • Metacognition
  • Horizontal Thinking
  • Insight
  • Imagination (esp. at “grand strategic” level)

  • Logistical estimation of costs
  • Normative evaluation of potential benefits
  • Understanding of temporal constraints
  • Recognition of opportunity costs
  • Recognition of boundary conditions
  • Recognition of physical constraints of strategic environment (terrain, weather, distance etc.)
  • Recognition of patterns in the history of the strategic environment

  • Net assessment of the maximum capabilities of a political community (first ours, then theirs)
  • Understanding of organizational structure of a political community
  • Recognition of stakeholders in the political community 
  • Understanding of decision making process of the political community
  • Understanding the power relationships of the decision making process of the political community
  • Understanding the distribution of resources within the political community
  • Recognition of the touchstone points of the cultural identity of the political community (positive and negative) and worldview
  • Assessment of morale of the political community and the community’s moral code
  • Assessment of psychology of individual adversary decision makers
  • Identification of points of comparative advantage
  • Recognition of how different bilateral outcomes/shifts will affect third parties
  • Assessment of relationship between the adversaries and between them and third parties

This list is not comprehensive. In fact, I have a question for the readership, particularly those with military service and/or a good grasp of military history:

Where do the interpersonal skills or “emotional intelligence” abilities that comprise the activity we term “leadership” fit into strategic thinking? Or is it a separate but complementary suite of talents? We often assume that great strategists are the great leaders, but we tend to forget all of the generals who were popular yet mediocre in the field and gloss over the human faults of those who won great glory.

I have some ideas but I would like to hear yours. Or any additional suggestions or comments you would care to make.

The Said Symphony: moves 13 – 15

Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

[ by Charles Cameron – extended analytic game on Israeli-Palestinian conflict — continuing ]

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It has been a while since I last played a move in the Said Symphony: our game has been quiet since July, and it is now December.  Meanwhile, the world has moved on, and many of the knowns of the Middle East have become unknowns – the Egyptian view of Israel among them.

My next move, then, will recognize this lapse of time — but for those who may be unacquainted with the game, and wish to follow it, here is a quick recap.

The Said Symphony Game, played in the spirit of Hermann Hesse‘s fictional Glass Bead Game, is an attempt to “concept-map” the various voices in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its wider context, both contemporary and historical/mythological, so that its many voices can be held in counterpoint in the mind, and parallelisms and oppositions discerned between them as in a great fugue of Bach or Beethoven — inspired by the Palestinian public intellectual and music critic’s suggestion:

When you think about it, when you think about Jew and Palestinian not separately, but as part of a symphony, there is something magnificently imposing about it. A very rich, also very tragic, also in many ways desperate history of extremes — opposites in the Hegelian sense — that is yet to receive its due. So what you are faced with is a kind of sublime grandeur of a series of tragedies, of losses, of sacrifices, of pain that would take the brain of a Bach to figure out. It would require the imagination of someone like Edmund Burke to fathom.

The game thus far:

The game is a solo game, and you may wish to read it slowly.

I will now play moves 13 – 15.

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Move 13: Pause

Move Content:

The rest [in this case a “long” rest] is the indication in the score of a musical silence: that is, a silence heard as musical, silence within the music. The rest extends over time, the music continues – so I’m adding a fermata or hold to the rest, which will extend it further, thus:

To my way of thinking, the pause is, above all else, a sabbath, a time of rest:

“Labor is a craft, but perfect rest is an art”, writes Abraham Joshua Heschel in his great, short book, The Sabbath — “He who wants to enter the holiness of the day must first lay down the profanity of clattering commerce … He must go away from the screech of dissonant days” and “How else express glory in the presence of eternity, if not by the silence of abstaining from noisy acts? These restrictions utter songs to those who know how to stay at a place with a queen…”

Links claimed:

There are other pauses, pauses of dissonance, pauses of rending.

To Auschwitz: The pause that Auschwitz enforces on us is a silent scream, atonal, ultra-modern in its sensibility, the attempt of a little, unmoored, desacralized western consciousness to get to moral grips with the factory extermination of one’s fellow beings by the millions, perpetrated by people who wear the same shoes and suits and ties, and carry the same briefcases as ourselves. It lacks all that has previously been called  musicality: it cannot cope.

I do not believe there is any escaping this scream: it is to be heard and held, embraced even. It is ugly, and it is an ugliness increaed by magnitude, by repetition, by number.

To Golgotha: The pause that Golgotha asks of us is of another order.  Christ, “when he had cried again with a loud voice, yielded up the ghost.” The Word is silenced. Only after three days will it begin to speak again.

Comment:

Leading into the next move, I have suggested that the rest is a musical silence – whether it be the deathly silence we may sense in Golgotha, the hideous silence that Auschwitz draws from our exhausted lungs, or the encompasing silence of glory of which Rabbi Heschel speaks.

It is a musical silence, a silence in each case to be listened to – tolerable or intolerable – a John Cage zen silence if you will…

In that silence, sounds can be vaguely sensed, emerging as if a morning mist is lifting, and some bird or twig or trill takes form…

Our board thus far:

[ my appreciation and thanks to Cheryl Rofer, who corrected me with regard to the notation of rests ]

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Move 14: Jerusalem

 

And so a new movement in our Symphony begins.

I have been aching for this moment: as move 14, I play Jerusalem

Move 14: Jerusalem

Move content:

Jerusalem is at the heart of the Israeli / Palestinian and Israeli / Arab problem, and thus of much of the tension in the  Middle east and the world.

It is also the city of peace, Salem – and you might say the ultimate hope, not of this game, which cannot aspire so high, but of the heart, is expressed in the three words: shalom salem salaam… In fact, ubi shalom, ibi salaam might be the motto of this work: where there is peace, let there be peace.

In making the opening move of this second movement of my game Jerusalem, then, I am taking us into the heart of the conflict, and into the heart of the hope for peace.

Jerusalem is a contested city, and we shall explore that contest in the moves to come.

Links claimed:

First, to the rest in 13: because in the silence, three sounds can be heard.  I quote here the words of Jamal Zahalka, a Palestinian Knesset Member — not for who he is but for their music:

The sound of the Muezzin, the church bells and the blowing of the shofar have always existed.

Those are the sounds “that can be vaguely sensed, emerging as if a morning mist is lifting”, in the silence of the musical rest.

Second, to Golgotha, the place outside Jerusalem where, according to the Christian telling, the body of the man who compared his body to the temple was so cruelly tortured that he “yielded up the ghost” – and at that moment, as if in sympathy, in the spiritual heart of Jerusalem and all Israel “behold, the veil of the temple was rent in twain from the top to the bottom; and the earth did quake, and the rocks rent…”

Third, to the Glass Bead Game: because “the holy city, new Jerusalem, coming down out of heaven from God, made ready as a bride adorned for her husband” of Revelation 21.21 finds its intellectual avatar in “the hundredgated cathedral of the mind” to which Hesse’s Game aspires.

Fourth, to William Blake, prophet, for whom Jerusalem was so urgent a matter that he must have it with him in England – as many Americans must have it with them in America — singing (as I myself have lustily sung):

And did those feet in ancient time.
Walk upon England’s mountains green:
And was the holy Lamb of God,
On England’s pleasant pastures seen!

And did the Countenance Divine,
Shine forth upon our clouded hills?
And was Jerusalem builded here,
Among these dark Satanic Mills?

Bring me my Bow of burning gold;
Bring me my Arrows of desire:
Bring me my Spear: O clouds unfold!
Bring me my Chariot of fire!

I will not cease from Mental Fight,
Nor shall my Sword sleep in my hand:
Till we have built Jerusalem,
In England’s green & pleasant Land

But Blake did better than to write these words – he illuminated them, and I shall place the text as he presented it at the bottom of this post.

Next: to Bob Dylan.  Well, there’s this:

— but it seems to be someone’s personal graphic for a compilation of Dylan songs, so this – Dylan at the Wailing Wall, 20 February 1983, attending his son’s Bar Mitzvah – will have to suffice:

And finally, I find there’s a peruasive link to Moral Equivalence — because Palestinians claim possession of the Noble Sanctuary and parts of the old city, while Israelis claim the same rights over the whole of Jerusalem including the Temple Mount – the Temple Mount and Noble Sanctuary being one and the same physical space — and there are wise and foolish, hardliners and diplomats, scholars and treatises on both sides, and in the interstices between them.

And the question is: are the claims and complaints of one side justified and the other baseless, or is there a moral equivalence between them.?

That is a question of balance on the scale of justice, to be tempered, one always hopes, with mercy.

Comment:

What are the claims and counter-claims, ancient and modern – and what do the peace-makers say?

Addendum:

A page from Blake’s Preface to Milton:

It would be a marvel to have purchased his book at the time, to have held it and read and savored it, each copy uniquely illuminated by his own hand…

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Move 15: Netanyahu’s Leopard

Move 15: Netanyahu’s Leopard

sforzando

Move content:

“A leopard has sunk its teeth in our flesh, in the flesh of our children, wives, our elderly, and we will not be tempted to believe that this leopard has now changed its spots. We will not ignore its voracious growls. We will strike it down.”

From the desk of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, speech at the Memorial Ceremony for Victims of Terror, October 5th, 2011.

Links claimed:

To rest or pause, I suppose, because the lull between intifadas may seem like a sort of temporary truce, but it’s really mostly an opportunity for the enemy to regroup and rearm; and then to Jerusalem, because Jerusalem is Irael and Israel Jerusalem; and finally to — what was it — moral equivalence because there is no moral equivalence, is there?

I’m sorry if that seems a bit abrupt, but the musical signature at the top of the move says sforzando, and we’ve got work to do.

Comment:

Getting into the thick of it, Netanyahu’s speech doesn’t leave much room for compromise.  And sforzando, a musical term, literally means “forcibly” — “with strong emphasis”.

Conflict is not pretty, in the way one might hope that symphonies and other works of art and beauty might be.  There’s death to be distributed and withheld, and wealth and power — and the urgency they bring to the fight.

 

Maxwell on North Korea

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Fatboy Kim II

(Photo hat tip to Robert Young Pelton)

Colonel Dave Maxwell, now retired from active duty and working at Georgetown University as Associate Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies and the Security Studies Program in the School of Foreign Service, is an expert on the esoteric subject of North Korea ( which he habitually writes as “north Korea”) and the idiosyncratic dynastic Communist system he terms “the Kim Family regime”. In the past few years, I can say my knowledge of the DPRK has improved markedly largely from reading Dave’s posts on The Warlord Loop.

SWJ Blog has just published an analysis by Colonel Maxwell on what the demise of Kim Jong-il portends:

The Death of a Dictator: Danger, Opportunity or Best Timing Possible?

….There are two scenarios that are likely to play out within North Korea.  The first scenario depends on the strength and power of Jang Song-taek who, along with his wife and the late Kim Jong-il’s sister, is the de facto “regent” for the young Kim Jong-un.  Has he been able to help Kim Jong-un establish sufficient legitimacy within the Regime and will they be able to consolidate power?  It is very likely that if Kim has sufficient strength and control of the
security apparatus there are very likely arrests and purges taking place even as we try to figure out what is happening. 

The second scenario is that he has not been able to consolidate sufficient power and will be
faced with internal threats from other senior members of the regime who are unwilling to allow a 27 year old four star general rule the party and the military.  If there is a power struggle many scenarios can play out ranging from internal chaos, civil war, and “implosion” to an external “explosion” – e.g., spillover of the effects of chaos and civil war into China and the ROK or the worst case: the desperate execution of the regime’s campaign plan to reunify the peninsula as the only means left to ensure survival of the Kim Family Regime.  Finally, regime collapse will occur when there is the loss of the ability of the regime to centrally govern and the loss of control and support of the military and security apparatus.    We have seen cracks in the system like hairline cracks in a dam.  The recently reported alleged defection of eight armed guards is but one indication of such cracks with water slowly dripping from through the regime’s dam – the question is are those cracks repairable or will they cause the dam to crumble and collapse; unleashing such a torrent on the peninsula that will make 1950-53 look like a minor skirmish in terms of scale of potential conflict and devastation.

Either scenario will ensure the continued suffering of 23 million north Korean people and the second scenario will expand the tragedy to the Republic of Korea and its 46 million citizens and significantly affect the other countries in Northeast Asia as well as have global effects…..

Read the rest here.

 

New Issue of Infinity Journal (Vol. 2, Issue 1)

Monday, December 19th, 2011

The latest issue of Infinity Journal is out! Featuring articles by Anthony Cordesman and blogfriend Adam Elkus of Rethinking Security.

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