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Archive for March, 2017

Flight paths in simulation and reality

Sunday, March 5th, 2017

[ by Charles Cameron — once again, one thing reminds me of another ]
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OTOH, in reality:

OTOH, in simulation:

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The simple excellence of rulesets in agent-based modeling is wonderfully demonstrated by the way the eye can “recognize” the movements on a flock of birds or a school of fish in Craig Reynoldsboids — rulesets notably simpler than the explanations for flocking behavior previously suggested by biologists.

Metacognitive question: what’s the cognitive means by which we humans can “see” that the boid simulation is a sufficiently accurate representation of birds flocking and fishes schooling to account for them? — and ditto for birds flocking and fishes schooling, how do we “see” them as naturally equivalent? — and ditto for those birds flocking and fishes schooling and our earlier biological accounts of their behaviors? —

With a hypothesis, we can test by finding predictable or disconfirmative instances beyond those on which the hypothesis is suggested.. but when the similarity is visually perceived?

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross in Foreign Affairs, my oblique analysis

Sunday, March 5th, 2017

[ by Charles Cameron — in which Gartenstein-Ross reminds me of Albrecht Dürer ]
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Daveed speaks:

Daveed is worth reading and heeding, especially when he says he’s written something of particular consequence — so read his Foreign Affairs piece.

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My topic is triggered by a single sentence in Daveed’s piece, and is orthogonal to his. Daveed writes:

These spaces included both literal ungoverned territory and discursive spaces

In the overall flow of Daveed’s piece that’s a simple introductory remark, an observation of fact. From my point of view, though, there’s more to it than that — it’s a disjunction & conjunction of the two realms of geography and cognition, matter and mind, or “outer and inner space” if you will. And that’s something always worth noting.

In fact, Daveed’s comment reminds me of Albrecht Dürer and his illustrations of Saint Michael Fighting the Dragon, from The Apocalypse:

Here, the supernatural sits comfortably above (Latin: super) the natural.

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The physical-metaphysical (body-mind; outer-inner; objective-subjective) disjunction & conjunction is recognizable in Descartes, and takes contemporary form as the so-called hard problem in consciousness. It’s significant that the “war in heaven” of Durer’s vision no longer fills the skies in our contemporary images of war, though heaven and hell are no less with us than before..

And so I note that, en passant, Daveed has alluded to what is perhaps the great schism of our time, that between visionary and factual truths.

Kathleen Raine, poet — and mentor of my youthful self:

Fact is not the truth of myth; myth is the truth of fact.

Witness her distress as we abandon truth of myth shining “above” truth of fact, for truth of fact alone:

Chemistry dissolves the goddess in the alembic,
Venus the white queen, the universal matrix,
Down to molecular hexagons and carbon-chains,

John of Patmos, the alchemists, Durer, Blake, Jung, Raine, have the richer vision.

A quick ouroboros caught on the fly

Sunday, March 5th, 2017

[ by Charles Cameron — Benjamin Wittes twice, also a pointer to Clint Watts ]
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Benjamin Wittes and Quinta Jurecic at the Lawfare blog have an above-my-unpaid-grade examination of the Presidential oath of office — and what happens when, in the case of a given President, it falls into widespread disrepute: What Happens When We Don’t Believe the President’s Oath? Just the fact that this question is being raised is remarkable. For my purposes, though, it’s the mention of leaks about leaking — a serpent bites tail concept, and hence a signal of potential significance — that I want to capture in passing:

All this culminated rather comically in a recent State Department memo by acting legal advisor Richard Visek condemning leaks and advocating that department employees instead make use of State’s internal dissent channel—a memo which itself promptly leaked to the press. Similarly, when press secretary Sean Spicer demanded to examine the phones of White House staffers to check for leaking and ordered staffers not to speak to the press about the meeting, Politico quickly got hold of the story.

I’d been meaning to find a suitable leak about leaking serpent for a while now, and Wittes’ article affords me this opportunity.

Once again, the self-reflexive form is, as Doug Hofstadter showed us in Gödel, Escher, Bach, a signal of likely special interest. In this regard it resembles such other forms as chiasmus (mirroring, eg “By the word of the LORD were the heavens made; and all the host of them by the breath of his mouth”).

O happy day, here’s a chiasmus from Aeschylus, entirely apt to Wittes’ post:

It is not the oath that makes us believe the man, but the man the oath.

Wittes has a follow-up post, Ten Questions for President Trump, today. Also of note, Clint Watts‘ tweet-streak today beginning here:

Laura Seay on Invisible Children and the LRA

Friday, March 3rd, 2017

[ by Charles Cameron — for your convenience, Laura Seay’s tweet-streak updating us on the LRA, reformatted as prose — though by no means prosaic ]
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Foreign Policy @ForeignPolicy

Five years after its “Kony 2012” video broke the internet, Invisible Children is waging covert war against the LRA. http://atfp.co/2ljVz6A

Laura Seay @texasinafrica

This isn’t the full extent of the crazy, naive things IC, Bridgeway, & Laren Poole have undertaken in the last few years. There’s more. And the “more” is capital-I Insane.

I’ve been researching the anti-LRA efforts as part of my book project on how advocacy movements affect US policy in Africa. The US has spent over $1 billion on the anti-LRA mission since 2011. The LRA is now tiny, ~150-250. Whether Kony is still alive is unknown. Innocent people still suffer as a result of the LRA’s much-decreased activity. No doubt about that. But is this the best way to spend $1 billion? Especially given how many other armed groups in the region do far more harm to civilians?Could the skills of the 100 US Army Special Operations Forces posted to the CAR mission to “advise” the UPDF be put to better use elsewhere?

These are not easy questions & there aren’t easy answers to them. And there’s the issue that 5 1/2 years in, we still haven’t caught Kony or eradicated the LRA. At what point do we cut our losses & give up? The folks who are still working on these efforts have been passionately & deeply engaged on the LRA crisis for 10-15 years. They got what they wanted: global attention, abundant funding, a military mission (in which they are deeply involved). And it hasn’t worked. But some dangerous precedents have been set, particularly re the role of private charitable foundations funding a foreign military.

No matter how good their intentions, foundations aren’t accountable to anyone. Nor can foundations control how the UPDF will use training & equipment they provided in the future or in other situations. It’s a risky game. And it won’t be the foundations who suffer the consequences if things go wrong down the line. AFRICOM also can’t control what the UPDF will do with the skills they’ve developed while working alongside US Army Africa. Ideally, the UPDF leaves the mission with more professional soldiers with strong capacity & ethics. But again, we can’t control that. It’s messy with no clear “right” answer.

I think the anti-LRA movement will be remembered as a cautionary case about the role of advocacy movements in shifting US policy. Advocacy movements shouldn’t get all that they want. Their wishes need to be tempered by expert & local opinion. And US charitable foundations should not be allowed to fund foreign military activity. Period.

Dept of Unintended Consequences

Thursday, March 2nd, 2017

[ by Charles Cameron — whether a fabricated meme or true to life, this surely counts as a fine & fun example of the unanticipated ]
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Quelle surprise!


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