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Archive for December, 2004

Sunday, December 12th, 2004

INTER-ASIAN WAR SCENARIOS AND THE AMERICAN-CHINESE CURRENCY ZONE

Two very interesting posts related to Asia today.

The first is by Jodi, the Korean-American expatriate international businesswoman and proprietor of The Asia Pages. Jodi has a rich post with links on potential Asian conflict points, particularly in Northeast Asia.

The second is by Harvard Physicist Lubos Motl who likes to blog when not musing on String theory. Dr. Motl examines the implications of American trade deficits and the state of the yuan and offers some counterintuitive speculations.

Sunday, December 12th, 2004

THE BUNGLED WET AFFAIR IN UKRAINE

Unofficial but probable victor in the disputed Ukrainian Presidential election, Viktor Yuschenko, has called for a probe into his mysterious poisoning that Austrian doctors attribuute to Dioxin. The Kuchma regime’s handpicked candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, had this sputtering response:

“There is “no logic in such an accusation,” The Associated Press quoted Yanukovych’s campaign manager, Taras Chornovyl, as saying.”

Hardly. Yanukovych represents not only the more Russified eastern Ukraine but the ex-KGB, russian mafiya chieftains who rule the dilapidated industrial cities with iron fists. In addition to self-interested corruption, this group also wallows in reactionary nostalgia for the Soviet Union’s neo-Stalinist days of the late Brezhnev period. In a particularly goofy example, Ludmilla Yanukovych had this to say regarding the anti-regime, democratic protests:

“Dear friends, I’m fresh from Kyiv, I can tell you what’s going on there. It’s simply an orange orgy there! So, there’s rows and rows of felt boots — all of it of American make! See! And mountains of orange oranges. And the background is ‘Orange sea, orange sky …’ [a line from a popular kids song]

“Gosh! It’s just … It’s a nightmare! And look here guys: those oranges ain’t just any oranges — they’re loaded. People take an orange, eat it — and take another one. See! And the hand keeps reaching, keeps reaching for it. I was on my way here, there was news. They said — people in the square are getting poisoned, on a mass scale. Frequent hospitalizations. They bring people in with meningitis! What have we come to? And they keep standing, keep standing! Eyes simply glazed over! Just like that!”

( Hat tip for this Sovietesque nonsense goes to Geitner Simmons)

The primary question now is whether an honest investigation, which will only occur if Yushchenko wins the special election, will lead to the door of Yanukovych, Kuchma or Russian President Vladmir Putin.

The clumsiness of the poisoning would tend to implicate the Yanukovych campaign, perhaps with assistance from the security services of the Kuchma regime. The former KGB, most of whose assets were inherited by the Russian Federation, pioneered ” Black Chamber ” research for stealthy assassinations and quite simply have far more efficient an less traceable toxins at their disposal. The diplomatic price of Russian involvement in a bungled assassination of a Ukranian presidential candidate are extremely high – particularly when simply stealing the election or tossing Yushchenko in jail on trumped up charges ( Putin’s personal M.O.) have fewer spillover costs. I’m not ruling it out but I think the SVR would be more deft ( perhaps I’m wrong and the SVR-FSB are in the same sorry state as the Russian Army).

The net effect will probably be a resounding election victory by Yushchenko who, if he rules with any sense of magnaminity, will firmly and irrevocably put Ukraine on a path to integration with the Core, pretty much ending any Russian hopes for a neo-Soviet imperial sphere. Without the prize that is Ukraine such dreams are a fantasy and Russia’s best course of action would to go the route of integration as well – ending a thousand years of Russian ambiguity of standing between the Asiatic and Western worlds.

Friday, December 10th, 2004

PNM THEORY: FOR DIFFERENT SOCIETIES, A SYSTEM PERTURBATION IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER

Reading Andrew Sullivan the other day I was struck by this post which Sullivan culled a quote from an article in the American Prospect magazine:

“The van Gogh murder is a little bit like our 9-11. The degree to which the United States had changed after 9-11 was hard to fathom in Europe. Now, this one murder seems to be having a similar effect on my fellow Dutch nationals. In Europe we have experienced our own homegrown terrorism for years, so although Dutch people felt enormous solidarity with Americans after 9-11, many asked, “Aren’t Americans a bit too focused on themselves when they keep saying that 9-11 was some huge paradigm shift?” The Netherlands, right now, is undergoing a similar sort of attitudinal change. It will be interesting to watch whether this change sparks a shift in Europeans’ generally hostile attitude towards George W. Bush’s aggressive foreign policy and his “axis of evil” style approach to the world.”

Having read a fair amount about the reaction of Dutch public opinion to the murder of Van Gogh by a radical Islamist activist this analysis not only strikes me as accurate but points to an important aspect of Sysytem Perturbations – mass psychology. What perturbs one system may not perturb another and the intensity of the perturbation may not depend upon experiencing the apocalyptic violence America saw on 9/11

Theo Van Gogh was only one man and normally a single murder is unremarkable news, even in Europe but- given the context of everything else-to the people of the Netherlands, Van Gogh’s assassination was a visceral shock. A horrifying and transfixing repudiation of the most deeply held values of Dutch society, a mortal threat to their national way of life. The implications resonated to every quarter of Holland and created a sea-change in Dutch attitudes toward Islamist extremism, Muslim immigration and the GWOT. Dutch society responded in a horozontal wave of fear and fury. Within hours of VanGogh’s death, the most tolerant and liberal of Europeans who pride themselves on being a nation of refuge, were setting fire to the mosques. This extreme reaction has subsided but the horizontal scenario will continue to unfold in major policy changes as the Netherlands moves to a forward position in the Terror War.

It appears that a critical aspect or necessary condition for a System Perturbation is the capability for most of a society to perceive a systemic shock and frame the experience spontaneously in a natural consensus. Extreme violence, while likely to be a trigger of a System Perturbation, would seem to matter less than the perception that, in Dr. Barnett’s words ” the world has been turned upside down “.

Dr. Barnett argues that System Perturbations are ” a new ordering principle ” forcing wide and deep revision of rule-sets and…

“If system perturbation theory has any relevance beyond being an ethereal model of a complex world, then we need to identify who or what the trigger agents are that can “drop the big rocks in the pond,” what media they will use, how the shockwaves will be transmitted, what connections exist between the initial shock and the horizontal scenarios, what barriers can be erected to stop the spread of adverse effects, and what the consequences are of both the threat and the cure.”

Perhaps the trigger is less important than the target – the core values of a nation’s social contract and the implicit assumptions the society holds regarding itself.

Thursday, December 9th, 2004

De BORCHGRAVE ON KERIK

A more balanced look at the very colorful career of the new DHS Secretary-designate than you will get from MSM girlie-men like Sydney Blumenthal. If anything, this guy will provoke visceral hatred from the leftist Greenwich Village-Hollywood liberal crowd just by walking into a room- Bush might have well nominated Arnold Schwarzenegger for all the red flags that will go up on this one.

Good.

Thursday, December 9th, 2004

THE LAND OF LINCOLN

For scholars, students and Civil War buffs I recommend Lincoln/Net, a site run by the Abraham Lincoln Historical Digitization Project, an organization dedicated to assembling an online archive of documents and materials related to Abraham Lincoln’s pre-presidential life.


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