zenpundit.com

THE FUTURE OF ANDREW

His predictions for 2005

Andrew is a lot more optimistic on Iran. While I put my faith in the stupidity of the clerical regime hardliners ( Khameini really isn’t that bright – he’s the Konstantin Chernenko of Khomeinist Islamism – but with better health) Andrew prefers to vest his confidence in their ability to annoy the Iranian people.

“Iran- The US will buy off the Iranians, in a sense. Giving Tehran security guarantees and offering to lift sanctions, the Bush administration will convince the Iranians to accept IAEA monitoring of their nuclear program, with the understanding that the Iranians could still pursue a program for “peaceful purposes”. With the US threat diminished inside Iran, the legitimacy of the mullahs will be the primary grievance of Iranians, setting in motion events that will eventually culminate in another revolution. This will mark a shift in Us policy towards Iran, instead of isolating the US will choose to open up Iran in efforts to weaken the regime.”

ADDENDUM: JB SEES THE RITING ON THE WALL FOR ACADEMIC PROGNOSTICATIONS

A nice summative review with commentary

AN IMPORTANT POST FOR THOSE WHO SEE A NEED FOR A MORE RESPONSIBLE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

I was not intending to blog tonight being tired and out of sorts until I saw something quite important at The American Future – a frequent occurence on Marc Shulman’s blog Some very senior Democrats held what I can only describe as ” a closed door intervention” with the erstwhile UN Secretary-General Kofi ” What, me worry ? ” Annan, currently on track to tie Kurt Waldheim as the most morally disreputable SG in UN history, while matching U Thant for the most useless. Marc excerpted:

“First, they said, Mr. Annan had to repair relations with Washington, where the Bush administration and many in Congress thought he and the United Nations had worked against President Bush’s re-election. Second, he had to restore his relationship with his own bureaucracy, where many workers said privately that his office protected high-level officials accused of misconduct.”

Speaking as an incurable hawk with a penchant for big-picture analysis, I found this to be refreshing. The UN, to say nothing of the reputation of the thoroughly discredited Mr. Annan, is beyond repair at this point but the Democratic Party may still be salvageable. I’m not going to hold my breath but this burst of truth-talking realism was a healthy development. Now if only the Democrats will start saying things like that in public.

Frankly, long-term world security depends a lot more on the Democratic Party freeing itself from the grip that the Chomskyian nutjob Left has over that party’s than it ever will on the antics of the UN.