5GW EMERGENT -BUT WHAT IS IT ?
Sound and fury -and some solid thought – on the next generation of warfare:
“Attempting to visualize a Fifth Generation from where we are now is like trying to see the outlines of the Middle Ages from the vantage point of the late Roman Empire.”
– William Lind
“….fourth-generation wrfare is more than seventy years old and is reaching maturity. While we are only beginning to understand it clearly, history tells us the fifth generation has already begun to evolve”
– Colonel Thomas X. Hammes
“Things would be bad enough with just fourth generation opponents but as the research on global guerrillas has borne out, a new more dangerous generation is forming: potentially a 5th generation of warfare. Much of this new generation was derived and accelerated in cauldron of Iraq, just as the basis for 3rd generation of warfare was proved out in the Spanish Civil War”
– John Robb
” BFA suggested the institutional changes and strategic alliance choices necessary to move us beyond 4GW engagement (the Long War, as we call it now) and into what I would call 5GW shaping of the future battlespace (by locking down Asia and gaining its strategic aid in shrinking the Gap in all those places where our enemies are–to date–not yet strong, such as the entire Gap outside of the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan/Pakistan). “
– Thomas P.M. Barnett
Tom and John both had sizable posts today on 5GW, approaching phenomena of war and strategy, as they so often do, from related but opposing perspectives. Their common thread is contemplating 5GW as an event of a system with systemic effects. After that, they tend to diverge.
“My own personal 5GW dream” – Thomas P.M. Barnett
Dr. Barnett is doing a lot of online horizontal thinking these days which people accustomed to his more analytical news pieces find jarring or confusing; personally, with my interest in cognition, I like to see ideas gestate. Normally, we have to wait until a writer dies and the heirs let scholars (hopefully) edit and publish the thinker’s drafts, notes and marginalia to gain insight into this process. Blogging it lets us all see the idea process in real time.
Shaping the global battlespace is the emphasis here which means the statesman, the salesman and the spy will have more longitudinal effect than the soldier. A good historical example of shaping the battlespace would be the “Present at the Creation” wise men after WWII whose work – Bretton Woods, IMF, World Bank, GATT ( todat the WTO), The Coal-Steel Community (today the EU), NATO, The Marshall Plan, the UN, Containment – won the Cold War and helped midwife globalization.
Today of course, it won’t just be governments or “wise men” but entities like Google or Microsoft and -ultimately – emergent social networks using open source platforms, who will do a significant part of the shaping. They will also ride the major flows of globalization, taking advantage of the momentum of the environment in which they operate. This is the ultimate constructive goal of grand strategy – steering a civilizaton.
“THE CHANGING FACE OF WAR: Into the 5th Generation (5GW) ” by John Robb at Global Guerillas
Robb’s piece is tighter, polished and summative of his ideas. Probably the best look-see we will get on Global Guerillas until John’s new book hits the stores.
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