Apocalypse Row: Netanyahu, Nukes, and Iranian Eschatology — Tim Furnish
[ guest post by Tim Furnish, posted by Charles Cameron ]
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Blog-friend and occasional guest poster Dr Tim Furnish just posted this very timely piece at his MahdiWatch blog, and I am delighted to post it in its entirety here with Tim’s permission.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will speak to a joint session of the US Congress on Tuesday, March 3, 2015. If his speech earlier today at the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) was any indication, the Islamic Republic of Iran and its pursuit of nuclear weapons will be the major topic. Partisan bickering (about whether the Republican majority in the House and Senate wished to insult President Obama) aside, the central issue boils down to whether Bibi is correct in his long-held belief that the IRI leadership amounts to a “messianic, apocalyptic, radical cult” which must be stopped at all costs from going nuclear (as he first said six years ago).
He is not.
Now as my usual friends and colleague sharpen their knives, allow me to explain. First off, I am a staunch supporter of Israel, as both a Christian and an American, and have been there three times in the last decade. Also, now that Turkey, under Sultan Erdoğan, has slipped back into Neo-Ottomanism, Israel is the only truly democratic nation in the Middle East. Along with the Kurds, the Israelis are our closest allies in that region.
But that does not mean that everything Israeli is automatically correct. And this claim that Iran wants nuclear weapons in order to use them on Tel Aviv and thus spark the coming of the 12th Imam al-Mahdi is a gross misreading of Twelver Shi`i doctrines as well as of Iranian politics.
I examined this issue in depth for the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis back in 2011, in a paper entitled “A Western View on Iran’s WMD Goal: Nuclearing the Eschaton, or Pre-Stocking the Mahdi’s Arsenal?” The major points therein follow, after this pictorial message:
Safavid Shah Isma’il (L), founder of the 16th c. dynasty that converted Iran to Twelver Shi`ism. HE would not have hesitated to use nukes (in fact, his turban itself is weaponized). But Khamenei? Not bloody likely.
Z Belief in the return of the 12th Imam from ghaybah, “occultation,” is not “fringe” or “extremist” but a mainstay of this brand of Islam (just as is the doctrine of Jesus’ return for all orthodox Christians).
Z The 12th Imam’s reappearance is totally up to Allah’s discretion; nothing humans can do will advance his timetable. “Hotwiring the apocalypse” depends not on WMD usage or any other violent activity but, rather, hinges on creating the Mahdist state in microcosm (i.e., the IRI) and then waiting on Allah to send the Mahdi to rule it.
Z The anjuman-i hujjatiyeh (“Hujjatiyeh Society”) is not some insane group dedicated to destroying Israel but an organization dedicated to re-converting Baha’is to Twelver Shi`ism—and, furthermore, was banned in the early 1980s for being insufficiently supportive of Ayatollah Khomeini’s clerical rule.
Z As per the excellent article by Ze’ev Maghen, “Occultation in Perpetuum: Shi`ite Messianism and the Policies of the Islamic Republic,” the ruling ayatollahs are probably the most vociferous opponents of a true Mahdist claim on the planet—because acknowleding anyone as such would end their rule of Iran, and with it their wealth, power and privilege.
Z Twelver Shi`i views of jihad mandate that jihad-i ghalaba, “victorious holy war,” be prohibited until the return of the 12th Imam—NOT employed to importune him to appear. Usage of nuclear weapons is thus really not allowable for the apocalypse-hotwiring which many pundits impute to Iran.
Z Yes, some Iranian leaders have spoken, repeatedly, of Israel being “erased from the pages of history.” But I believe that this means they believe in a gradual demographic disintegration of the “Zionist entity,” and not a mushroom cloud over Israel.
Z It is possible for men to have long beards, wear turbans, express eschatological beliefs and yet still be rational political actors. The Supreme Leader and his cronies all know that were Iran to use a nuclear weapon against Israel, their nation would be a radioactive ruin about 15 minutes later. The Mahdi has no desire to rule over such a wasteland. Plus, it would deprive the clerics of their wives and Rolls Royces.
Z All of the above by no means makes the IRI a peaceful or trustworthy state. The ruling ayatollahs want nuclear weapons not only to hold onto their power (as per the ruling clique in Pyongyang) but to provide immunity against possible American military strikes and to increase Tehran’s regional clout—just not to summon the Mahdi via a nuclear conflagration.
President Jarrett, er, Obama and SecState John Kerry are fools to think that any written agreement will disabuse Khameini and his ilk of their lust for nuclear weapons. But attempting to counter the administration’s naiveté with inane bluster that misepresents our enemy’s beliefs and intentions amounts to falling off the horse on the opposite side. Instead, let’s try sitting upright on a strong horse and avoiding partisan extremes of misapprehension.
March 2nd, 2015 at 10:32 pm
We can never know what the future will bring, only make the best guesses we have on the information we have at hand. Sometimes we’re close, other times, not so close – Black Swans and all that.
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Let’s hope you are correct. Otherwise the Middle East in for a major bloodletting. That does not mean we will not have to confront islam as a fascist totalitarian ideology that is a direct threat to Western Civilization. I think a useful approach would be to start treating islam like we would naziism and purge it from our society. Not gonna be popular with the left, but I think it would be effective.
March 3rd, 2015 at 12:51 am
Israel is in no way a democracy. And seemingly only dispensationalist dominated American Christian heretics, offshoot apocalyptics of the left-wing of the Protestant Reformation seem to feel an obligation to support Israel, certainly not European or Russian Christians, more certainly not Middle Eastern Christians.
March 3rd, 2015 at 1:11 am
>>Israel is in no way a democracy.
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Ken, it’s been said before, but you’re an idiot.
March 3rd, 2015 at 1:32 am
Please refrain from ad hominem attacks. Thank you.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:41 am
Mr. Hoop: could you at least try to get within shouting distance of my actual topic?
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:48 am
Mr. Hiteshaw: the issues of dealing with (mainly) Sunni da`wa domestically in the UiUS and with the nation-state of Iran on the global stàge Are distinct.
March 3rd, 2015 at 1:59 pm
Sorry for those typos–I was commenting from my Blackberry.
March 3rd, 2015 at 8:13 pm
They’re runnin’ scared.
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http://www.westernjournalism.com/u-s-israels-common-enemies/#WDzOHtFEZkjukjRY.97
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Okay, Tim, you hedged your bets so much I could not ascertain what your actual thrust was, except that you are pro-“American” (Empire,) want it to continue making choices that place it much closer to the opposite pole than Ron Paul, for example wishes it to exist thereon, and you compare Israel favorably with Iran even though Bishop Tutu, eg, correctly depicted Israel as having a more oppressive system of ethnic supremacism than South Africa.
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So if I tell you that the United States is “not a peaceful or trustworthy state” but an oppressive Empire, I might not have to shout.
March 3rd, 2015 at 8:27 pm
“more certainly not Middle Eastern Christians.”
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Incorrect.
Christians are harassed, threatened, and now slaughtered in Muslim countries. In Israel, they enjoy a high standard of living and pray without fear. Israel is seen increasingly as a safe haven for Christians at the same time the rest of the world seems to be ignoring them or wishing they didn’t exist
http://www.sdjewishworld.com/2014/11/25/arameans-seek-recognition-outside-israel/
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Furthermore, the left wing of the Protestant Reformation as represented by the Presbyterian Church, U.S.A. is anti-Israel. I’m not sure what you mean by heretics. Heretical compared to what orthodoxy? Support for Israel falls along political lines for practicing American Christians just as it does for everyone else.
March 4th, 2015 at 5:12 am
I think it’s useful to understand our enemies, no doubt. By let me make an analogy. I was listening to a civil engineering lecture the other day. He described a dam built on a fault – the entire region was faulted, so it couldn’t be avoided. The dam was designed to give to a certain degree along the fault line. Lots of instruments took lots of data over many years documenting the movement of the fault. There was a sudden increase of movement over a few months just prior to the dam failing. Lots of data was taken. Nothing was done.
His point? Don’t confuse gathering information with actually doing something. All the data gathering in the world does not stop the dam from failing. We should not pretend that understanding islam and its nuances is the same as doing something to protect our civilization from it. We know it’s a dangerous, backward, barbaric, totalitarian ideology. It is anathema to Western Civilization and its values. The sooner we acknowledge that fact, to ourselves and the world, and start treating it as such the better off we’ll be. And the better off our children will be as well.
March 4th, 2015 at 4:45 pm
Mr. Hoop: how on earth did you get “pro-American Empire” from my post about !2er Shi`i beliefs? That sort of Chomskian (il)logic just makes my head hurt.
Your ideological lens is clearly so think that you can’t even discern my point.
March 4th, 2015 at 4:47 pm
THICK, not “think.” I picked a bad Lent to give up caffeine.
March 4th, 2015 at 4:50 pm
Mr. Hiteshaw: it’s ironic that you accuse me of drowning in “nuance” when much more often I am charged with being “Islamophobic” and engaging in reductio ad absurdums.
I would riposte that understanding more about the Islamic world before acting–as in invading Iraq for no good reason whatsoever, and thereby greatly empowering Iran–might actually be what we need.
There are two equally wrong responses to Islam: one is to deny its violent streak(s) and to pretend it’s a religion of peace; the other, which you seem to favor, is to pretend it’s monolithically evil. Sorry, having studied that religion and civilization for 20 years, both of those are wrong. And ignorance in this field leads to horrible policies–by both libs and conservatives.
March 4th, 2015 at 5:49 pm
Thanks, Tim.
March 4th, 2015 at 7:35 pm
Grurray
Ha Ha. “Aramean Christians.” I suppose Samarians should also be picked to
represent mainstream Judaism
Here is an actual meaningful representative of Palestinian Christians and she is not a fan of Zionist anti-Christian rabbinical law rules “Israel” where even an attempt to convert a Jew is punishable.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanan_Ashrawi
March 4th, 2015 at 7:42 pm
Tim Furnish
An American paleocon and an American libertarian an American Bolshevik of the healthy stripe and an anarchist of any stripe would tell you–and Hiteshew– Islam is not “our” enemy because we should be having fairly limited contact with it in any regard and let it go at that.
March 4th, 2015 at 10:30 pm
There’s an Aramaic revival in Israel
http://www.wca-ngo.org/our-work/wca-activities/501-israels-first-registered-aramean-to-address-united-nations-in-geneva
Christians in Israel and the Middle East calling themselves Arabs are ignoring their history, language, and heritage.
March 4th, 2015 at 11:26 pm
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March 4th, 2015 at 11:39 pm
Many Christians who call themselves Arabs were considered Arab before the Arab Conquest. It’s entirely probable that most of the Arabs in the Arab army that routed the Romans at Yarmook in 636 were Christian, though not necessarily Chalcedonian.
March 5th, 2015 at 2:18 am
Thanks, Charles. You did not that I was rebutting the position of an ignorant Tea Party person–who, ironically, was trying to paint me as a clueless liberal.
Speaking of which: if anyone can ascertain just what point Mr. Hoop is trying to make, I’d appreciate it.
March 5th, 2015 at 2:19 am
Damnit, Jim, I’m a doctor, not a typist.
That should have read “Thanks, Charles. You did NOTE…..”
March 5th, 2015 at 3:17 am
Good interview Tim. I think you made the best case. Something tells me that your scholarly argument went over their heads.
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Lynn, that could be. Arameans, though historically fierce combatants, have been known to be led astray now and again
http://www.usccb.org/bible/2kings/6
March 5th, 2015 at 5:29 pm
Grurray
http://inventionofthejewishpeople.com/
Jews are ignorant of their history, not Christian Arabs.
March 5th, 2015 at 5:33 pm
I meant Samaritans, not Samarians, somebody should have caught that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samaritans
Grurray
Ha Ha. “Aramean Christians.” I suppose Samarians should also be picked to
represent mainstream Judaism.
March 6th, 2015 at 12:15 am
Points made on both sides?
March 6th, 2015 at 12:25 am
Furhish is saying Iran will destroy Israel, if Israel is stupid enough to let them–while the Tea Party will commit troops to take out Iran, if we only get rid of Obama?
March 6th, 2015 at 12:57 am
I mean after the Tea Party gets done with tearing down the structure of the US government by withholding resources, there won’t be much for the veterans of the New Iranian War to come back for.
March 6th, 2015 at 1:33 am
“…if Israel is stupid enough to let them”
Perhaps I should have added, again. 🙂
March 6th, 2015 at 3:23 am
” with the nation-state of Iran on the global stàge Are distinct.” What typo? Go on?