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MORE ON THE SITUATION IN IRAN FROM TWO SCHOLARS

Juan Cole and Micheal Ledeen .

My view of the Iranian regime is that they are now the Islamist equivalent of Erich Honecker and the Stasi in the late 1980’s. Unlike Honecker and his Communist cronies however, there is no fallback position for Khameini, Rafsanjani and the torturers of the Pasdaran. If they fall from power their bodies could well be swinging from lamposts and construction cranes in Teheran the way democrats, monarchists and communists once did under Ayatollah Khomeini. Unfortunately, these people are up to their ears in international terrorism and have been at war with the United States and killing Americans sporadically since 1979 and will never stop. The regime must go, preferably at the hands of the Iranian people and if not, then with some help from the United States.

I see Riting on the Wall is posting on Shiites today as well.

THE GIFT OF FIRE

Much thanks to Prometheus 6 for the link and the kind words- he has one of the blogs ” on the other side ” that I’ve taken to reading, intelligently written and feisty and I encourage everyone to check it out. Since Prometheus 6 is ” a member of the VLWC ” it will be interesting to see as time goes by how we come down on our analysis of the issues. The parameters of a problem often depends on the vantage point from which you view it so it is always helpful to look at the world throught the perspective of another ( it can often be a useful corrective). Those who move through the world insulating themselves from all conflicting opinions, grope blindly and are easily led astray.

AS MUCH AS I DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS

I will make a few comments on Hillary Clinton ( or Hillary ! as she was known during her senate campaign). She will run for president next year or in 2008 under the constraints of being a known quantity. Opinions on her character are essentially set in the public mind, the oft-used phrase is ” polarizing figure” applies and she will follow a Nixonian strategy in that race. Richard Nixon, another basically unpopular candidate with a paranoid personality that caused viscerally hostile reactions, overcame tremendous odds to win the presidency with a minority of the vote. It’s a pattern Hillary needs to follow because for every true-believer behind her there’s another person in the electorate who simply hates her guts and a vast middle ground that is bone-weary of the scandals and Clinton-wars of the 1990’s. Her room for political manuvering is limited by her high and enduring negatives.

First we will get a ” New Hillary ” – we are seeing some of that now with her book promotion – older, wiser and more capable of poking fun at her own foibles who will chuckle about her days as the lightning rod of 1600 Pennsylvania avenue. Then the campaign will emphasize HRC’s statesmanship as a senator and first lady while pushing proposals that sound bold but politically speaking will be surprisingly middle-of-the road in tone. When the crazies on the Right come out with predictably frantic and excessive personal attacks, she’ll be taking the high road. Even so, barring a three-way race or an exceptionally weak GOP opponent, I don’t believe that Hillary Clinton is all that electable so look for liberal donors to be quietly throwing some big money ( and the media a large spotlight) at any political figure who seems capable of splitting the Republican vote.

REGIONS OF MIND

Has relocated to a new, spiffier site as be fits Geitner Simmons upwardly mobile blog. I enjoy Regions because it isn’t just another blow-by-blow, politics by the minute blog but one that also takes it’s time to examine aspects of the culture and history routinely ignored by the bicoastal big media. Aside from being informative, this kind of commentary is a useful corrective to the heavily upper-middle class, yuppie, urban perspective of the nation seen on television and cable news. There’s a whole lot of country out there with distinctive subcultures and regional flavors that seldom get mentioned and their absence is a lacuna in the national mind.

IAEA FINDS THAT IRAN SECRETLY IMPORTED URANIUM FROM CHINA

As a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty the only reason to important uranium secretly is to have an unaccounted stockpile from which to process bomb-grade uranium or plutonium. IAEA inspectors maintain a watch on overtly acquired stockpiles of uranium to prevent diversion to nuclear weapons programs. For the story go here.

In a related story, the same hardline Pasdaran clique that controls the Iranian government has been accused of harboring a key operational planner of Islamist terrorism who works with ( but is not a member of) al Qaida.