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SOMEBODY’S THINKING CAP ( or helmet) IS IN PLACE

From the NY TIMES

“Colonel Pomfret said the marines were already reaching out to local leaders, mainly in the mosques. He said they were focusing on lower-level leaders who were in touch with their neighborhoods. He said the effort entailed the extensive use of Arabic translators, as there was a realization that the Americans should not rely too heavily on Iraqi officials just because they speak English.

“We are trying to take the pulse of the street,” he said. “We don’t want to rely only on the English-speaking Iraqi leaders, because a lot of them were involved in the regime.”

ASSYMETRY AND THE HEIRS OF SUN-TZU

Also in the Chicago Tribune on Sunday is a series of excerpts from _ Unrestricted Warfare_ by Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiagsui of China’s PLA examining how the first Gulf War required that all other states throw out the rule book vis-avis the United States. This book, published in 1999, is apparently not yet available in English, was translated by the CIA for the agency’s Foreign Broadcast Service. The commentary is eerily prescient of what would happen on 9/11 yet fits fully within the Chinese strategic philosophy for those familiar with the writings of Sun-Tzu, Han Fei-Tzu, Mao ZeDong and _The General Mirror for the Aid of Government. My excerpts of the Trib’s excerpts of the CIA’s excerpts of _Unrestricted Warfare__

” There is nothing in the world today that cannot become a weapon ”

” The appearance of precision-kill weapons is a turning point “

Of Bin Laden, after the USS COLE and Embassy bombings in Africa :

” The American military is naturally unprepared to deal with this type of enemy”

Mostly the weaker side selects as its main axis of battle those areas or battle lines where its adversary does not expect to be hit…..always a place which will result in a huge psychological shock to the adversary “

I would argue in response, in addition to those I wrote some time ago in an article, that the comparative advantage for the weaker side lasts so long as the stronger side continues to adhere to the disadvantageous ” old rules “. When the stronger side takes the initiative in rewriting the rules, not merely reacting defensively, the precious advantage is lost and the weaker side risks being extirpated.

IN THE VANGUARD OF REFORM: I am doing a late night perusal of the Sunday edition of the Chicago Tribune and in their Books section accompanying an article on the new Taubman biography of Nikita Khrushchev was a recommended reading list on Russia compiled by Jonathan Brent, the editorial director of Yale University Press. I cannot quarrel with any of the books he included on his list which contains authors such as Maxim Gorky, Aleksander Solzhenitsyn, Arthur Koestler and Robert Tucker but I was saddened to see nothing included by the late historian W. Bruce Lincoln whose book, _The Romanov’s_ is a standard text in courses on Russian history. An unusually prolific scholar who wrote with a verve and power that rivaled the prose of David McCullough or Stephen Ambrose, Professor Lincoln was a rarity – an academic specialist who cultivated a popular audience without sacrificing accuracy or analysis. Interested laymen would be able to grasp much of the impact that modern history has left on Russia by reading Lincoln’s _Passage Through Armageddon_ and _Red Victory_ which chronicled the suffering of war, Revolution and finally civil war and the accompanying political terror that marked the Soviet Union until 1953.

I cannot claim to have known Professor Lincoln well, having only spoken to him on a couple of occasions and sat through a few of his lectures but he left a mark upon his field that merits recollection

CALIFORNIA DREAMING

If he decides to run, Schwarzenegger may face a challenge from national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, who has spoken to senior Republicans about running for California’s top job, according to a Bush adviser. Rice’s candidacy is a “real possibility,” this adviser said, adding that Rice wants to take on an executive role.

This opens up some interesting possibilities for the GOP in a major electoral college state that is firmly in the hands of the Democrats but beleaguered by multiple problems and the highly unpopular Democratic Governor Gray Davis. While the idea of a Schwarzeneger candidacy might cause chuckles in some quarters, Arnold would be a major headache for Democrats if he ran for Senator or Governor in California as would a Condoleeza Rice candidacy though for very different reasons.

Merely running for governor of California would make Rice a heavyweight contender for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008. Armed with a Ph.d, experience in foreign affairs in two Bush administrations, attractive and personable on television Rice’s candidacy would send a powerful symbolic message to the nation about Republican commitment to minority inclusion in the American dream. California Democrats do not have a candidate of similar stature unless they can persuade Diane Feinstein to abandon the Senate to battle Rice for the governorship ( Barbara Boxer, something of a liberal lightweight in the Senate, is no match for Rice intellectually ).

By contrast, Schwarzenegger would bring his fame, fortune and an outsized steamroller personality in the same way that he engineered a successful ballot initiative for after school programs. Neither money nor media would be a problem in a state that once elected Ronald Reagan. Aside from being free of any fundraising worries – Schwarnegger ranks thirtieth on the Forbes’ celebrity 100 list – he would appeal to the conservative base of the GOP while bringing to the ballot box the same apolitical, alienated, young, white male voters who showed up in Minnesota unexpectedly to hand Jesse ” the Body ” Ventura an upset victory.

California is a ” must have ” state for Democrats in presidential contests – a loss in 2006 or even a tough race that electrifies a moribund state GOP, bodes poorly for their chances of dominating national politics.