zenpundit.com

WHAT IS STRATEGIC THINKING ? HOW CAN WE CULTIVATE IT ?

” The general himself ought to be such as one as can at the same time see both forward and backward ” – Plutarch

I’ve been discussing Dr. Barnett’s book extensively for the reason I think it will be influential – it’s a relatively rare example of in-depth American strategic thinking, a culminating result of many years of briefing and seminar work for Dr. Barnett. Most of the time, whether we are discussing business trends or foreign affairs or education reform we are really discussing tactics, movements to seize an advantage in the near term. Americans are very, very good at tactical thinking – partly I suspect as a result of our liberty centered culture. There are simply relatively fewer obstacles in our lives compared to other societies impeding us from our goals that would require long-term planning to overcome. We’re freer to concentrate on seizing the moment than say an Indian untouchable or a Saudi woman.

Unfortunately, starting with the War on Terror, our preference for tactical maneuver is not going to resolve a conflict with an amorphous, Islamist foe that is imbued with what Reinhold Neibhur once termed ” the demonic fury of fascism”. We need a strategic approach to the war and the related troubles of ” the Gap” that Dr. Barnett outlines in PNM.

I’d like to start with a good article on what constitutes strategic thinking in a cognitive sense. If you don’t have time to read it in full then I suggest you skip down to the diagrams which gives a gist of the author’s point. My definition of strategic thinking would be “ the ability to determine potential goals by understanding how to alter the interconnections of constituent parts within a systemic whole “. Edward De Bono is a good source of information for techniques to change one’s mental perspective and look at problems creatively from new points of view

I also have a suggested reading list of books, besides Dr. Barnett’s, that exemplify, discuss or engage in strategic thinking. Sometimes examples are better than an explanation:

The Art of War (i)

The Art of War (ii)

On War

The Prince

Discourses on Livy

Book of Five Rings

The Persian Expedition

The Muqaddimah

The Peloponnesian War (i)

The Peloponnesian War (ii)

Greek Lives

The Influence of Sea Power on History

The Conquest of Gaul

America’s Economic Supremacy

ANTHONY CORDESMAN SLAMS 9/11 COMMISSION RECOMENDATIONS

Noted military analyst cautions against ” sweeping generalizations ” with ” more weaknesses than strengths “.

UPDATE:

President Bush has endorsed the creation of a ” National Intelligence Czar “ post. Why ? Because it’s easy, it’s popular and it’s mostly meaningless window dressing anyway. It will do little good but it won’t harm anything either, beyond wasting a few tens of millions of dollars.

A real policy ” czar ” in Washington never has to be called that because they have something more important than a title and a flowchart – they have the political “juice ” to make bad things happen to other bureaucratic players who cross them. Thomas C. Mann, for example, was LBJ’s ” Czar” for Latin American policy by virtue of holding various administration posts simultaneously and having LBJ’s full support. It was Mann, not Dean Rusk or McGeorge Bundy, who decided U.S. policy in the Western hemisphere during the Johnson administration up to and including intervention in the Dominican Republic. Somehow, I doubt that the National Intelligence Director position will do much more than dilute the DCI’s already tenuous authority over the rest of the known 14 agencies of the IC.

Legal authority and presidential directives are important of course but mostly in the hands of heavyweights who need to buttress their position or turf against fellow rivals. The Reagan administration was famous for the use ( and misuse) of national security decision directives by principals and their deputies at DoD, State, CIA and the NSC to hijack policy initiatives. DCI’s like Bill Casey and Allen Dulles were exceptionally powerful, shapers of policy as well as administrators because they had special political relationships that went beyond their official job descriptions. Dulles of course worked hand in glove with his brother, John Foster Dulles, the Secretary of State; Casey was a key political adviser to Ronald Reagan as well as sharing a hardline anti-Soviet viewpoint with Caspar Weinberger, Jeane Kirkpatrick, William Clark and other officials eager to implement ” The Reagan Doctrine “.

The IC needs reform that’s something more substantive than an election year, Washington insider, musical chairs reorg.

OTHER BLOGS WITH NOTEWORTHY POSTS

I’m catching up on my blogreading so I have a few recommendations. First, for what’s happening in Uzbekistan go to The Argus where Nathan has done many posts on the subject. Geitner Simmons, who always has interesting things up at Regions of Mind despite being busy writing a book, did a critical analysis of John Kerry and the Democratic Party in several posts. The Belmont Club takes Kerry to task for his ambiguity on war and strategy. Kirk Johnson interviewed Jonathan Winer, a senior Kerry foreign policy adviser, during the convention.

UPDATE: Excellent PNM related post on Europe’s selfish motves at Flit(tm).

UPDATE II: Phil Carter at Intel Dump on Iraq and 4th generation warfare ( Hat tip – riting on the wall.)

THINKING ABOUT PNM: LEVIATHAN VS. SYSTEM ADMINISTRATOR FORCE

While driving down to Boston from Bar Harbor the other day I mulled over the new type of force structure that Dr. Barnett envisions called ” System Administrator ” that would complement the already existing ” Leviathan ” capability of the United States military. In part Dr. Barnett is asking the USG to reorganize some of the things the military already does in ” missions other than war ” but he’s also indicating the need for evolution toward a whole new service. ” Small Wars ” involve ” Big Chores ” that extend beyond blowing up bad guys and their real estate. I’m going to blog in more detail later but here’s the difference, as I see it, between ” Leviathan ” and ” System Administrator ” in quick and dirty conceptual terms. First, what Leviathan is:

Leviathan :

Unidimensional ( warfighting)

Unilateral

Global

Destructive

Victory

Regime Change

Unconditional Surrender

Strategic

Offensive

Massive

Total War

Shock

Hard Power

Rule Sets

Chain of Command

Hierarchy

Leviathan would be the composed of the core forces assembled to fight ” the big one ” – carriers, armored divisions, strategic bombers and the like. A very large and dramatic iron fist designed to do one thing – swiftly crush an opponent completely and utterly.

By contrast, System Administrator would have to be good at many things traditionally done by peacetime governments while still retaining the organization and combat ability of a military force. The purpose here is ” Connectivity ” for struggling or failed states; the System Administrator comes in and helps these societies connect to the Core by alleviating multiple problems long enough for the Gap state to ” catch it’s breath ” and stabilize. In other words, the System Administrator would have significant para-civilian program capabilities backed by military prowess.

System Administrator:

Multidimensional

Multilateral

Regional or Local

Creative

Connectivity

Security

Infrastructure

Governance

Rule Sets

Regime Build

Tactical

Defensive

Precise

Stealthy

Limited War

Smart Power

Collaborative

Stabilizing

Autonomous

Integrative

Networking

A System Administrator force is much more like an expedition than an invasion. Sure there are Special Operations guys to engage in counterinsurgency, counterterrorism and training but the army engineer, the medical corpsman or the legal advisor might be, in a given situation, just as important to the success of the mission to ” Shrink the Gap “. Flexibility, adaptibility and creative engagement would be the watchwords of a hypothetical System Administration force.

Sort of the Alliance for Progress…. but with Apache helicopters for air support.

BLOGGING FROM BOSTON

And nary a word about John Kerry.

Mrs. Zenpundit and I have just finished a pleasant week in greater New England. We watched the sun set on the Cadillac summit on Mount Desert Island, hiked through Acadia national park, ate ice cream in Amherst and Kennebunkport and went to the Saint Aggripina fest in North End tonght in Boston. By the way, if you visit Bean Town, have the veal at Antico Forno. It’s delicious !

It’s been a good vacation but I’m ready to head back to Chicago.