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Tuesday, October 11th, 2005

RECOMMENDED READING

Good stuff. Deep stuff. Interesting Stuff….no theme on my part today.

Dr. Von posts on “ Emergence” – collective behavior of complex systems. I learned from this one.

Collounsbury on “ Arabic II: Training, Translation & Intelligence” and gently pummels the ubiquitous praktike about the face and head

Curtis Gale Weeks at Phatic Communion has erudite commentary on my ” Gorewellian” post. Have to answer this later tonight ;o)

Jeff at Caerdroia has an admirably bare-knuckle post entitled ” Peace of the Grave

Chirol at Coming Anarchy explains the results of Germany’s election while Younghusband tries to 4GW the Cuban Missile Crisis ( a favorite topic for Cold War historians).

Eric at Classical Values seems to believe that his blog is ” the bomb”.

That’s it.

UPDATE:

Link error to Collounsbury fixed ! Apologies to Col and Von for the mistake !

Tuesday, October 11th, 2005

THE ADMIRAL OF THE OCEAN SEA


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He has been reviled as the arch-imperialist, a slaver, a brute, an incompetent, a con man, the father of genocide, a fantasist and a failure. He is the bogeyman of the multicultural, lunatic, Left even though he died half a millenia ago. He is Christopher Columbus.

A great man.

Monday, October 10th, 2005

A VISION OF A FUTURE WORTH CREATING: REVIEWING BLUEPRINT FOR ACTION


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Blueprint For Action by Thomas P.M. Barnett. G.P. Putnam’s Sons. Penguin Group. New York, New York . 2005

” Unite with your allies on intersecting ground”

– Sun Tzu, The Art of War


“One day you will come to a fork in the road. And you’re going to have to make a decision about what direction you want to go. If you go that way you can be somebody. You will have to make compromises and you will have to turn your back on your friends. But you will be a member of the club and you will get promoted and you will get good assignments. Or you can go that way and you can do something – something for your country and for your Air Force and for yourself. If you decide to do something, you may not get promoted and you may not get the good assignments and you certainly will not be a favorite of your superiors. But you won’t have to compromise yourself. You will be true to your friends and to yourself. And your work might make a difference. To be somebody or to do something. In life there is often a roll call. That’s when you will have to make a decision. To be or to do? Which way will you go?”

– Colonel John Boyd, The ” To Be or to Do” speech.


” Harvard, as it happens, is the perfect finishing school when it comes to working for the government. Because in Washington the only way to stand out when you are surrounded by thousands of people just like you is to tear down their ideas. The problem is, in that vision-hostile environment it is almost impossible to come up with any stories with happy endings – as I like to call strategic visions. That’s because no one in Washington is really interested in your happy ending; they all obsess about preventing what they are certain will be the disastrous outcome of your ill-conceived plan. So if you want to get ahead or get noticed, you learn to excel at this pack dog mentality, and you bury whatever dreams you had of proposing something different or better. This is why we do not have any real leaders in Washington anymore, just investigations.”

– Thomas P.M. Barnett, The Pentagon’s New Map


After the notable success and influence of The Pentagon’s New Map and the discomfort caused inside the Department of Defense by his unconventional ideas regarding ” war in the context of everything else”, Tom Barnett was given the classic ” to be or to do” choice. Barnett could shelve his ideas and return to designing strategic naval studies for ” the Big War” that he did not believe was coming to justify weapons systems that might never be used and have a comfortable academic sinecure and prestigious advisory posts. Or he could walk away, taking a huge gamble in order to write the book with the strategy he believed would be best for America and the world.

Thomas Barnett chose a future worth creating in writing Blueprint for Action.

There is continuity and conceptual flow from the Pentagon’s New Map in the pages of Blueprint for Action but the two books are unalike. In the first, Barnett spent a great deal of time explaining the world as it is; the second book is about the world as it could be – if we make the right choices. Unintentionally, Dr. Barnett has become something new – a grand strategist for the people who is selling his vision one reader, one soldier, one journalist, one voter at a time by book, brief and blog. The ideas are selling and the influence of BFA, I expect, will exceed that of The Pentagon’s New Map because soldiers and senators alike want to see an endgame to our foreign policy, and because ultimately hope is more motivating than fear.

Prior to descrbing a broad overview of a complex book, I have to note something stylistic – blogging has changed Tom Barnett as a writer. Perhaps Esquire’s Mark Warren was also an influence here but in BFA Tom’s writing is more relaxed, conversational and targeted to the non-expert and I’m pretty sure the almost daily blogging during which time this book gestated had something to do with the shift. Blogging is part brainstorming, part-venting, part feedback loop and regular readers of Tom’s blog will see things leap out at them from the pages amidst much that is new.

[ Full disclosure also requires me to note , as regular Zenpundit readers already know, that I have written previously for The Rule-Set Reset and about PNM theory at HNN. Dr. Barnett has also used a small section of my material in BFA ]

Blueprint for Action shies away from few subjects – Iraq, al Qaida, 4GW, network centric warfare, Rising China, rogue states, EU transnationalism, Islamist terrorism, Taiwan, Guantanamo, global pandemics, Iran, nuclear proliferation, preemption all can be found within – it is a tour de force demonstrating the interconnections of the strategic challenges facing the United States. It is analytical, bold and at the end, Blogging the Future”, highly speculative. In BFA you will find references to other thinkers from Ralph Peters to Robert Wright to Robert Kaplan to van Creveld to John Boyd.

After, PNM was published Dr. Barnett was frequently accused by leftists of being an evil, imperialist “Neocon “. After BFA he may be attacked by some neoconservatives as a starry-eyed liberal transnationalist. Neither label is accurate. What Dr. Barnett is proposing is to align American strategy with the enormous geoeconomic forces of globalization in order to both prevent globalization’s systemic breakdown and to make more probable the best-case scenario outcomes like ” A Peacefully Rising China”. Barnett is for integrating a nascent civilizational convergence, not sharpening conflict, but there’s nothing dovish about a strategy contemplating regime change in Pyongyang by any means necessary.

Neoconservatives are simply not going to like Barnett’s A-Z Rule-Set for processing politically bankrupted states that involves any kind of ICC-like structure. But longitudinally, the United States is simply going to have to secure ” buy-in” from other great powers on robust rules for dealing with non-state actor terrorists, rogue state menaces and disintegrating Gap states, not just temporary acquiescence. The costs of not doing so in Barnett’s view are self-evident:

” So ask yourself, which is better ? ‘ Trapping’ the U.S. military power in a Core-wide rule set that determines when and under what conditions it can be effectively employed (don’t forget we can always pursue pointless interventions on our own)? Or triggering a Core-wide arms race to see which great power can field the most frightening colonial corps ? In the former, America gets the privilege of owning the largest gun, so to speak, but in the latter we’re looking at a number of rivals who are similarly armed “

Armed because they cannot allow chaos and warlords in the Gap to interdict the energy supplies that make the difference between stability and unrest in India and China. Which is why future American security policies will involve New Core states moreso than Old Core NATO and Japan. On Osama bin Laden’s offer of ” civilizational apartheid” which half-tempts the EU, Barnett discerns greater realism and a willingness to back up interests with force in India, China and Russia:

” Since the major New Core powers all border the Islamic world, there are few illusions about ‘containing’ this conflict once begun. The Gap is not some abstraction to these governments but a very intimate sort of operational reality…Like the United states, New Core powers are the most willing to wage war to protect the global economy because they have the most to lose by its collapse.”

Dr. Barnett posits a convergence between China and America, New Core and Old Core because the nonzero sum momentum of globalization pulls in that direction, beacuse interconnectedness means that danger is defined by common interests and because the opportunity costs of disconnection in the Gap are increasingly global. The long-awaited shift from Atlanticism to a Pacific orientation for America will be sealed, in Barnett’s view, by the founding of an “Asian NATO” to ” secure the East” for the Core and rule sets will be increasingly determined in accordance with what New Core states logically require to function in a globalized economy. Rule sets that have spread and evolved along with globalization from America’s original ” source code” that united thirteen disparate colonies on an outlier continent into a whole and ignited fantatstic economic and civilizational growth, unprecedented prosperity and individual liberty.

A vision of a future worth fighting for.

Sunday, October 9th, 2005

RECOMMENDED READING

A deep military theme today. No comments from me as I am working on something long of my own.

Dan of tdaxp has two posts up today that touch on things Boydian:

“EBO: Effects Based Operations”

“Boydian Phase Changes and Clausewitzian Non-Attrition War”

Jeremiah of Organic Warfare, who is not, shall we say, overfond of the Bush administration, posts on a recent interview with Lt. General Wiliam Odom. General Odom is a former Reagan administration NSA chief and is an advocate of strategic withdrawal from Iraq.

Jon Holdaway of Intel Dump on “ Clamping Down on Interrogators

DNI posts ( PDF) a thought-provoking but sketchy piece from an anonymous author ” Militia: The Dominant Defensive Force of the 21st Century”. (“Fabius Maximus”, called ” The Delayer”, in Roman history was the general who dogged the armies of Hannibal)

Defensetech gets a ” Hat tip” for pointing to the idea of using ” Google” for intelligence.

The Small Wars Journal‘s blog changes locations and format ( and is still evolving). And launches the Small Wars Council !

Challenging the 4GW pessimism of Dr. William Lind and John Robb, Dr. Barnett talks about
” Nation-creating”.

That’s it.

Thursday, October 6th, 2005

A POSITIVELY GOREWELLIAN SPEECH

At a time when President Bush leaves me feeling somewhat depressed to be a Republican, former Vice-President Gore comes along to remind me to be glad that I am not a Democrat.

Gore’s speech yesterday is itself a microcosm of what is wrong with the leadership of the Democratic Party and why as a result Bush is free to make all kinds of boneheaded mistakes without much fear.

Gore focused primarily on the dangers to American democracy posed by a lack of national debate to inform the American people of their government’s policies:

“On the eve of the nation’s decision to invade Iraq, our longest serving senator, Robert Byrd of West Virginia, stood on the Senate floor asked: “Why is this chamber empty? Why are these halls silent?”

The decision that was then being considered by the Senate with virtually no meaningful debate turned out to be a fateful one. A few days ago, the former head of the National Security Agency, Retired Lt. General William Odom, said, “The invasion of Iraq, I believe, will turn out to be the greatest strategic disaster in U.S. history.”

But whether you agree with his assessment or not, Senator Byrd’s question is like the others that I have just posed here: he was saying, in effect, this is strange, isn’t it? Aren’t we supposed to have full and vigorous debates about questions as important as the choice between war and peace?”

You can read this statement essentially as ” Because my party lost this debate, therefore it did not happen”. I’m not sure where Mr. Gore was in the year prior to the invasion of Iraq but I saw little else in my newspapers, magazines and in the blogosphere than debate about the war – very passionate debate on both sides – across the country and the world. This is a bizarrely counterfactual assertion by Gore.

“Those of us who have served in the Senate and watched it change over time, could volunteer an answer to Senator Byrd’s two questions: the Senate was silent on the eve of war because Senators don’t feel that what they say on the floor of the Senate really matters that much any more. And the chamber was empty because the Senators were somewhere else: they were in fundraisers collecting money from special interests in order to buy 30-second TVcommercials for their next re-election campaign.”

No. The Democratic Senators did not make a case because they had none to make, other than the ones committed out of long political philosophy to an antiwar Left position. The Clinton administration, of which Mr. Gore was part, came very close to toppling Saddam in 1998 with Operation Desert Fox and helped drive Slobodan Milosevic from power with the Kosovo War in 1999 ( which I favored incidentally) with strong support from Democratic senators. The real underlying beef these senators had was the political affiliation of the incumbent in the White House, not any matter of principle or even foreign policy objective since regime change was already U.S. policy before Bush came in to office. The Clinton administration also fiddled around with some CIA orchestrated coups ( using Ahmed Chalabi no less) against Saddam but after goading the Kurds into revolt, left them hanging under Republican Guard fire and ( unsuccessfully) tried to pin the blame on the low-level CIA field operative in Kurdistan.

Wonder if Al had any fingers in that debacle ? Never mind, back to the speech….

“In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, there was – at least for a short time – a quality of vividness and clarity of focus in our public discourse that reminded some Americans – including some journalists – that vividness and clarity used to be more common in the way we talk with one another about the problems and choices that we face. But then, like a passing summer storm, the moment faded. “

Translation. The coverage was virulently anti-Bush. To an extent this was deservedly so but the MSM was also very inaccurate and wildly sensationalistic but I suppose ” a higher truth” was being served and that’s what counted.

“…Television first overtook newsprint to become the dominant source of information in America in 1963. But for the next two decades, the television networks mimicked the nation’s leading newspapers by faithfully following the standards of the journalism profession. Indeed, men like Edward R. Murrow led the profession in raising the bar”

What the big three networks news divisions followed faithfully into even the 1990’s was the lead of the editorial page of The New York Times. A stance closely associated with the Eastern Establishment and the Democratic Party since at least before the New Deal – so closely in fact that in foreign capitals the NYT was read for many years as the ” unofficial” line of the U.S. government.

And not entirely inaccurately either.

I’m giving Mr. Gore an extra-long snippet here because it is an excellent illustration of how to set up a ” stolen concept” argument that turns the literal meaning of words on their head.

“So, unlike the marketplace of ideas that emerged in the wake of the printing press, there is virtually no exchange of ideas at all in television’s domain. My partner Joel Hyatt and I are trying to change that – at least where Current TV is concerned. Perhaps not coincidentally, we are the only independently owned news and information network in all of American television.

It is important to note that the absence of a two-way conversation in American television also means that there is no “meritocracy of ideas” on television. To the extent that there is a “marketplace” of any kind for ideas on television, it is a rigged market, an oligopoly, with imposing barriers to entry that exclude the average citizen.

The German philosopher, Jurgen Habermas, describes what has happened as “the refeudalization of the public sphere.” That may sound like gobbledygook, but it’s a phrase that packs a lot of meaning. The feudal system which thrived before the printing press democratized knowledge and made the idea of America thinkable, was a system in which wealth and power were intimately intertwined, and where knowledge played no mediating role whatsoever. The great mass of the people were ignorant. And their powerlessness was born of their ignorance.

It did not come as a surprise that the concentration of control over this powerful one-way medium carries with it the potential for damaging the operations of our democracy. As early as the 1920s, when the predecessor of television, radio, first debuted in the United States, there was immediate apprehension about its potential impact on democracy. One early American student of the medium wrote that if control of radio were concentrated in the hands of a few, “no nation can be free.”

As a result of these fears, safeguards were enacted in the U.S. — including the Public Interest Standard, the Equal Time Provision, and the Fairness Doctrine – though a half century later, in 1987, they were effectively repealed. And then immediately afterwards, Rush Limbaugh and other hate-mongers began to fill the airwaves.”

Seldom has liberal nostalgia for indirect government and big corporation censorship of news and political debate been so brazenly portrayed as an argument for a free exchange of ideas. This is really something out of Orwell.

Mr. Gore is lamenting the Reagan-era repeal of ” The Fairness Doctrine” and related legal strictures that gave the Democratic Party and the Eastern Establishment elite interests ironclad control over public debate. And well he should, as the Fairness Doctrine was a tremendous built-in advantage for people like himself to dictate the parameters of acceptable public discourse free from any effective competition whatsoever.

Once upon a time ABC, CBS and NBC had an actual oligopoly on television news coverage in the United States, which as I mentioned earlier usually accepted a similar editorial frame for the news as the NYT, sometimes taking a leaf from the Washington Post or a major news magazine like TIME. This stance, which certainly communicated a partisan worldview along with factual news content, was legally defined as being objectively neutral under the Fairness Doctrine. You did not see or hear ” hate -mongers”[ sic] like Rush Limbaugh giving alternative views because a conservative or pro-Republican viewpoint was legally defined as being subjective and partisan, requiring that a station affiliate provide free ” equal time” to “the other side”. TV and radio stations prosper by selling commercials, not by giving free air time to amateur cranks to rebut the hosts of their scheduled programs. Thus there was an enormous financial incentive to muzzle conservative commentary and content. So you didn’t see guys like Rush in the media unless you counted the two minutes of Paul Harvey at 4 a.m. after the morning hog report.

And these corporate behemoths were supplemented by government funded entities like PBS and NPR. High quality broadcasts, certainly. Objective, hardly. Public broadcasting is even further to the Left than the networks despite the fact that a majority of the American public is to the Right of their tax dollar supported news programs.

These old glory days for which Mr. Gore so obviously pines can be described as many things but a “marketplace of ideas” isn’t one of them. Unless your idea of a marketplace is the old Soviet GUM department store. Returning the FCC to a role of a media GOSPLAN would be a utopia for Gore and Al Franken – who can’t seem to make their dream of an all-liberal station format competitive with Rush Limbaugh without the heavy hand of the state to tip the scales.

What Gore seems not to realize is that this media echo chamber he lauds fatally undermined the ability of the Democratic Party to actually wage a battle of ideas the same way having the ref on your side undermines the playing skills of a basketball team. The intellectual edge is dulled by a recourse to shutting up opponents instead of debating them. The information feedback loop is corrupted which is why liberals who won’t read anything to the Right of Paul Krugman wake up dazed on election day to find Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush re-elected and their guy rejected by an enormous geographic swath of the nation. Deliberately cultivating cognitive dissonance is a dumb political survival strategy

A good history lesson for the aforementioned Mr. Bush, whose current difficulties are a result of a disconnect created by firewalling himself off from all contrary viewpoints and unwelcome news.


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