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Thursday, August 11th, 2005

MAKING DE FACTO RULERS THE NEW DE JURE SOVEREIGNS

Jeff Medcalf at Caerdroia had an excellent post “Towards a New Understanding of National Sovereignty, and the Utility of the UN “- on the impact that the traditions of diplomatic make-believe regarding sovereignty and legitimacy now have as an increasing number of states slide into dysfunction and state failure. An excerpt:

Pakistan does not control its northwestern provinces. Mexico does not control Nuevo Laredo or most of the rest of the US border area, nor does Mexico control Chiapas. In what sense can Pakistan or Mexico be said to be sovereign over these areas? Well, in a legal sense, but that only. The modern definition of sovereignty dates from after the Renaissance, and was more or less formalized in the Treaty of Westphalia. I don’t believe that the issue has been addressed in formal international law since the Montivideo Convention in the 1930’s.

…While most of the challenges to sovereignty come in the form of transnationalismthat is, most of the challenges have been attempts to tear down nation-state structures and replace them with broader and generally less representative structures. The ultimate end goal of this would be a single government encompassing the entirety of humanity – there is no requirement that sovereignty be understood in that light. It is equally plausible (and far more sane in view of the various horrors visited upon humans throughout history in the name of centralization of power) to devolve sovereignty onto each individual person, and have governments obtain their sovereignty explicitly from the individuals who form them.”

As usual, Jeff nails a large number of salient points with a very economical use of words. There’s more to his post and you should read all of it.

Transnational Progressivism, in theory aspires to erecting an international supragovernment – not the ” one world government ” once feared by the John Birch Society, that would be far too accountable and easily blamed – but a diffuse mosaic of transnational entities with ill-defined but very broad, overlapping, jurisdictions and vaguely articulated but far-reaching powers. All of course, that would claim to legitimately supercede the rights and powers of nation-state governments. That is theory.

As a matter of practical application, most of these trans-prog NGO activists content themselves withad hoc legalistic gambits to hamstring the execution of legitimate, democratically-elected and accountable state authority. The documents they do manage to produce at a diplomatic level – Kyoto, The ICC agreement, the EU Constitution – are all noteworthy for their convoluted and excessively complicated structures and avoidance of responsibility in terms of the purpose for which they were created. Their spirit is not democratic but oligarchical, giving shadowy groups of unelected activists on the NGO circuit the power to gum up the works.

Take for example, the ICC; a great moral idea, one consistent with the spirit of Natural Law and the Genocide Convention. Unfortunately, the ICC as it stands today adds nothing because any signatory to the Genocide Convention already has the legal jurisdiction to punish genocidaires. Secondly, the ICC is dominated by states whose jurists would refuse on principle to mete out death sentences – giving defendents convicted of crimes against humanity 10-15 years in jail isn’t much punishment for herding thousands of people to their deaths. Or a deterrent against future acts of genocide.

What the ICC does well is constrain great powers from intervening to stop acts of genocide by hanging the prospect of politically-motivated prosecution over their heads. Or failing that, force the intervening power to adopt so restrictive a set of rules-of-engagement for their troops that they are rendered militarily impotent in the field. The howls of European outrage over the bilateral agreements negotiated by the United States and countries in the Gap indicate that the Europeans viewed the ICC at least partly as a wedge to get more of a say on how the Pentagon uses the American military.(If the Europeans were sincere about genocide rather than leverage, they’d have put 500,000 troops in Dar Fur).

The old Westphalian Rule-set is dying. Sovereignty is being challenged by forces of transnationalism, subnationalism and state failure. There is of yet, no agreement on the Rule-Set to replace the current standards of international diplomacy that rely increasingly on polite fictions that are at ever greater variance with reality. There is in fact, much dispute over whether the cognitive dissonance of treating geographic expressions like Somalia as nation-states is even a problem.

We need a Rule-set reset to move international law into better alignment with reality but before that can happen a cognitive reset must occur to force global elites to acknowledge that reality.

Wednesday, August 10th, 2005

SHORT TERM FUTURISM: ALL CONNECTED, ALL THE TIME

From the Eide Neurolearning Blog we get an article from IT heavyweights hailing the coming of the uberconnected society with all the important socioeconomic and psychological paradigmatic shifts that entails. I previously speculated on ” The Coming of the Global Hypereconomy” and Tom Barnett’s special edition newsletter features an IT specialist and scientist Dr. Stephen DeAngelis on the emerging tech of Rule-set compliance.

I also note that blogfriend Stu Berman has published a piece on IT security in Network Magazine called ” Take my Social Security Number – Please!” that complements the above topics nicely and puts the accent correctly on individuals, not the state, controlling their information profile.

Tuesday, August 9th, 2005

THE HOME OFFICE WORTH CREATING

Busy setting up bookcases and unpacking, organizing, shelving several thousand books today – a project long delayed – so that a car may park in the space in the garage currently occupied by my giant cube of paking boxes. This cube has sat untouched for oh, six-seven months and my excuses have run out ;o)

I’ll be posting later but in the meantime, here are new voices that have joined my blogroll of late:

American Digest

Brad Plumer

Captain’s Quarters

Conjectures & Refutations

Critt Jarvis

Digital Dissent

Nothing Aside

Organic Warfare

The Useless Tree

Typewriter King

Back in a while……

Monday, August 8th, 2005

HNN

Has revamped their image.

Monday, August 8th, 2005

TALKING TURKI TO THE SAUDIS [ UPDATED]

Trying my amateur hand at Arabist analysis:

The U.S.-Saudi alliance is not always a comfortable for either party though it remains close. The internal workings of the Saudi side, the network of the top fifty to two hundred senior princes, are opaque enough to require the same kind of tea-leaf reading skills once employed by Sovietologists during the Cold War (“…CIA analysts report a decline in the standing of the Soviet military-indusrial complex after Brezhnev was seen sneezing on Marshal Ustinov at the May Day parade…”). Moreover the decline and death of King Fahd, always weak ruler, has led to shifts within the KSA and in Saudi representation in Washington.

The new King Abdullah is a conservative who had been associated with tribal interests, Beduoin traditions and the National Guard; Abdullah is from the Rashidi branch and not the dominant Sudairi line of the senior al-Saud princes. The Rashidis had once been rivals to the al-Saud but had been defeated by King Abdul-Aziz and amalgamated into the Saudi ruling elite ( the Hashemites of the Hejaz, another rival family, were expelled and now rule in Jordan).Thirty years ago we might have called Abdullah’s religious views ” fundamentalist” but the king is not an Islamist. His power bases in the KSA have been repeatedly targeted by al Qaida while he was Crown Prince and Abdullah, in turn, forced the Saudi regime to crack down on religious militancy in KSA, allegedly over the objections of other senior al-Saud princes, notably Sultan, the Defense Minister, a Sudairi and new Crown Prince.

In Washington, the new Ambassador is Prince Turki bin Faisal, who headed Saudi intelligence for twenty-five years until resigning ( or being forced to resign) two weeks prior to 9/11, after which he became ambassador to Britain. Conspiracy theorists have made much of Turki’s timely resignation but it is equally likely that Abdullah, de facto ruler of KSA at the time, had quite enough with the Sudairis occupying all key posts in the kingdom at a time when Fahd’s longevity was in serious question.

Prince Turki, who is featured prominently in Steve Coll’s highly regarded Ghost Wars has longstanding, almost intimate connections at the very top of American political, media and intelligence circles. He is the son of the the assassinated King Faisal, the pious ruler who intiated Saudi funding of a global Wahhabi missionary outreach as a counter to the threat of Nasserism and secularism. Despite vigorous denials, Prince Turki’s ties to Islamist groups are as deep as they are to the CIA and DIA and not all of those agencies field operatives share the same enthusiasm for Turki’s appointment that their upper-level managers and political appointees do. Nevertheless, Turki remains a key figure in the Saudi hierarchy, like his younger predecessor as ambassador to the United States, Prince Bandar bin Sultan.

Both men seem likely potential candidates for very senior posts in KSA, perhaps even the throne, when the Sudairi gerontocracy passes from the scene. The Saudi monarchy at present is fratrilineal one and new monarchs are chosen by a family consensus that emerges as figures are named to the position of Crown Prince, with an effort to give due consideration to seniority, experience and the interests of various clans within the al-Saud. This is a complex and difficult to measure variable because the founder of Saudi Arabia, King Abdul Aziz, fathered many children by different wives throughout his long life. While many clans are unlikely to see a monarch from their line emerge any time soon their voices are raised and their support must be secured.

This aspect will make reforming KSA into a constitutional monarchy very difficult because the minor branches of al-Saud would be forced to give up their most effective lever of influence if a formal line of succession was to be established. The net result for the U.S. being that a period of instability seems very likely in Saudi-American relations because the internal political needs of the al-Saud are going to predominate over external diplomatic considerations

UPDATE:

From Crossroads Arabia – ” Looking down the Road

From The Daily Demarche – ” Majesty, they are your windows to the civilized world


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