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WHEN THE IRRESISTABLE FORCE OF INCREASING COMPLEXITY MEETS THE IMMOVABLE OBJECT OF POLITICAL INCOMPETENCE

Via Simon World, we learn that the Chinese Communist Party has admitted that its rural leadership cadres are now systemically provoking the peasantry rather than ameliorating their problems.

” ‘ In a rare press conference by a top party official, the vice-director of the Central Organisation Department, Li Jingtian , said the “mass incidents” in China had arisen because local authorities had been incapable of dealing with widespread grievances among rural residents.’

There has clearly been a directive from someone at the top to start dealing with these local protests lest they topple the CCP from power. Fancy a senior official admitting that local cadres are incompetent. Luckily, the CCP have an answer…re-education“

A Soviet model, political bureaucracy designed to wield political power over a relatively primitive, heavy industry-collectivized agricultural, command economy in the advent of increasing market exchange increasingly resembles a Brontosaurus, staggering around on dry land, looking for a place to die. Perhaps trampling many small mammals along the way.

Rural cadres, who number in the millions, historically have been picked for their orthodoxy and intuitive talent for discerning the emerging Party line. Not terribly well educated, they have enough connections to avoid the personal consequences of bad decisions for years and years to say nothing of corruption or favortism in local village rivalries.

As the old, Marxist, ” New Class”, they constitute a significant obstacle to China’s further progress.

ISLAMIST TERROR HITS LONDON

A previously unknown al Qaida affiliate, the Secret Organization group of al-Qaeda of Jihad in Europe, perhaps as small as only a few individuals, struck civilians in a series of bombing attacks against public transportation targets including bus and subway trains. CNN is estimating dead in ” the double-digits”.

Given the odd change of name it is possible, as happened in Lebanon during the 1980’s, an existing Islamist group in Britain with ties to terror groups like HAMAS or Palestinian Islamic Jihad created a ” cut-out” group with the al Qaida ” brand” to carry out this brutal and cowardly act of terror. It will also be very interesting if Scotland Yard turns up any evidence of cooperation between IRA splinter groups and Islamist extremists. IRA members have already been caught exporting their terror skills to FARC in Colombia and this bombing would only be a logical extension of that kind of inter-terror group cooperation.

We can also expect a possible reassassment of British security laws and immigration policy, the latter having previously become controversial enough to spawn the birth of a right-wing nationalist party that did modestly well in local elections.

The blogosphere is just starting to react at this hour. Curzon at Coming Anarchy points to a predictable burst of moral appeasement from the anti-globo left. Juan Cole has nothing yet though I expect that to change. Liberals Against Terrorism have two posts up, one by praktike and the other by Armchair Generalist. Winds of Change has a post up as does Wretchard at The Belmont Club who makes some good points about terrorist targeting.

More commentary later as this story develops.

CHINA AND THE IMPERIAL GERMANY ANALOGY

Daniel Starr discusses the recent comparisons made of ” rising power ” China with another ” rising power” looking for a place in the sun a century ago, Imperial Germany. This post is an extension of the ongoing discussion at Brad DeLong’s Semi-Daily Journal. Daniel writes:

“Of course, Germany in 1914 chose war despite a prospering economy. But by then “war for glory” was an established tradition, even a custom, for German leaders: under the Prussian kings and under Bismarck, the Prussian/German state had expanded and secured itself over and over through deliberately chosen wars. By contrast, China has no tradition of “glorious” war: war is just a tool of statecraft for traditional Chinese foreign policy, and a second-class tool at that — right now China’s leaders tend to see America as much more war-prone than themselves. So if China’s leaders can continue to hold power by giving their people rising incomes, they have no reason, and no tradition, to pull them toward war.”

My commentary:

Historically, China going to war for reasons of ” face”, like the 1979 Punishment campaign, against Vietnam, differed significantly from the reasons that Bismarck fought the wars of German unification and the Franco-Prussian War. Even moreso the geopolitical reasoning of leading members of the Kaiser’s Grossgeneralstab like von before the Great War which were eventually exemplified in the terms of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

Germany was angling for hegemonic domination of the s Eurasian landmass by military force and German leaders felt justified by the international protectionist trading regime that was, longitudinally speaking, going to strangle Germany if the situation did not change. China, despite their current avaricious hunger for petro-resources, does not need to overcome anything remotely like the structural economic disadvantages in terms of tariffs and raw materials facing Berlin in 1914.

Quite the opposite, I’d say.

THE ARAB REFORM BULLETIN

Updates on progress and setbacks for liberalization in the ME from Carnegie via H-Democracy.

SYSTEM ADMINISTRATION IS THE PARACIVILIAN COUNTER TO 4GW[Updated]

William Lind, one of the founders of 4GW theory, explains who is getting it right in Iraq and why:

“Just as having soldiers who want to fight is important in Second and Third Generation war, so not wanting to fight is key to success in the Fourth Generation. Any fight, whether won or lost, ultimately works against an outside power that is trying to damp down a Fourth Generation conflict. Fighting ramps up disorder, and Fourth Generation entities thrive on disorder. Disorder undermines the local government’s legitimacy, because disorder proves that government cannot provide security. Fighting usually means that locals get killed, and when that happens, the relatives and friends of the casualties are then obliged to join the fight to get revenge. Violence escalates, when success requires de-escalation.

Again, cops know all this. Here we see another lesson for 4GW: Reserve and National Guard units are more valuable than regular troops. Why? Because they contain a lot of cops. Lt. Waters is not the only cop who has succeeded in Iraq. Other Guard and Reserve units have let their cops take the lead, working the same way they do back home to de-escalate violence and bring security. Like Lt. Waters, they have achieved some local successes”

Sys Admin troops are not like Leviathan soldiers – they are interactive, constabulary, constructive, pro-active, networking, defensive and integrative. They ” re-wire” broken societies through connectivity, often as basic as potable water and rudimentary medical care.

Also at Defense and the National Interest is a paper by USMC Captain Robert Kozlowski entitled ” Leadership for the Fourth Generation: Preparing to Outhink Our New Enemy” . The paper is short, just nine pages an is extremely timely, covering the need to revolutionize officer training to create an officer corps that is cognitively directed to adapt in real time to shifting circumstances.

Highly recommended.

UPDATE: The Armchair Generalist has more on innovative thinking from the Marine Corps