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WHY FREAKONOMICS CAUGHT FIRE

Books on economics are seldom bestsellers though the few that were proved to be deeply influential – the last century saw The Road to Serfdom, Capitalism and Freedom and The Affluent Society influence a generation of intellectuals, politicians and journalists. Now along comes a self-proclaimed “book without a theme” Freakonomics by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner that sits at number # 2 on the NYT bestseller list and at Amazon.

The book jacket warns ” Prepare to be dazzled”. I wasn’t dazzled primarily because I’ve evidently caught a lot of Levitt’s work as it filtered in to the media over the years, but if you are unfamiliar with his odd research interests and fearlessness in selecting taboo topics you will find Freakonomics captivating. Levitt and Dubner claim themelessness – the book reads well and ranges very widely but there is a hidden theme, despite the protests of the authors to the contrary. Their theme is….

Counterintuitive thinking.

Dr. Levitt has an eye for scanning a horizon and seeing the missing puzzle piece, the dog-eared corner, the blip and assuming that it is the big picture and not the allegedly “incorrect” piece of data that is in error. This is a very great skill to have as an economist( or any field for that matter) because counterintuitive thinking not only leads you to ask the right questions but the great right questions that enable a field to make a leap of progress.

Prepare to be dazzled.

A HISTORY OF JOINT INTELLIGENCE

The CIA’s in house journal Studies in Intelligence has published their latest online unclassified/declassified issue with an article of particular importance in a time of IC reform, titled “The Evolution and Relevance of Joint Intelligence Centers“. An excerpt:

“The passage of the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act was equally important for the resurrection of JICs. The act bolstered the power of the JCS chairman by making him the principal military adviser to the president. It also improved the composition and administration of the joint staff, instituted joint professional military education requirements, and mandated that joint officers be promoted at the same rate as their service contemporaries. Lastly, the Goldwater-Nichols Act granted the unified and specified combatant commanders more autonomy and authority.[45] A stronger JCS chairman and more powerful commanders in turn generated more robust intelligence requirements— requirements best met by a joint staff J-2 and a JIC. In fact, the JCS chairman, General Colin Powell, was instrumental in supporting efforts to create the J-2 position within DIA.[46]…

…JIC-level analytical expertise is particularly critical for today’s counterterrorism operations. While transnational organizations, such as al-Qa’ida, are best tracked and assessed at the national level, the increasing trend toward franchise terrorist operations and splinter groups has reinforced the need for counterterrorism expertise and databases at the theater level. This same requirement has driven the establishment of Joint Interagency Coordination Groups at the theater commands, bringing together multiple organizations besides the military to plan and execute counterterrorism operations.[54]

Beyond conflict, the emerging “Lily Pad” basing strategy being advocated by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to support the war on terrorism and other modern military operations portends a significant role for theater JICs. The strategy envisions replacing large established installations in Western Europe and the Far East with small bases closer to potential crisis areas. While it may make sense to reduce the US footprint in areas like Germany, Japan, and Korea, downsizing or eliminating theater JICs does not. The regional expertise of JIC personnel and interaction with key liaison services will be integral to the support of forces deployed to the bare bones forward bases envisioned for Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Africa.[55]“

UPCOMING

I am unavoidably engaged in a tremendous round of nonsense at work today and probably won’t be blogging until late this evening. Upcoming posts though will include a review of Thomas X. Hammes The Sling and the Stone, commentary on the appeal of Freakonomics, some PNM, a response to a reader email on the GWOT and, if I’m feeling particularly ambitious, the latest developments in Russia.

Meanwhile, scan the blogroll for the new additions….

GLOBALIZATION 101

Well, this new, slick, CSIS website –Globalization 101 – will most likely enrage my more conservative regulars because of the definitely idiotic Transnational-Progressive character of their International Law commentary. On the other hand, I can see genuine radicals being unhappy with the non-conspiratorial if somewhat lukewarm presentation of the purpose of institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Liberals might like much of what they see. Or maybe not.

Overall, it should give everyone something to blog about.