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CHINA AND THE IMPERIAL GERMANY ANALOGY

Daniel Starr discusses the recent comparisons made of ” rising power ” China with another ” rising power” looking for a place in the sun a century ago, Imperial Germany. This post is an extension of the ongoing discussion at Brad DeLong’s Semi-Daily Journal. Daniel writes:

“Of course, Germany in 1914 chose war despite a prospering economy. But by then “war for glory” was an established tradition, even a custom, for German leaders: under the Prussian kings and under Bismarck, the Prussian/German state had expanded and secured itself over and over through deliberately chosen wars. By contrast, China has no tradition of “glorious” war: war is just a tool of statecraft for traditional Chinese foreign policy, and a second-class tool at that — right now China’s leaders tend to see America as much more war-prone than themselves. So if China’s leaders can continue to hold power by giving their people rising incomes, they have no reason, and no tradition, to pull them toward war.”

My commentary:

Historically, China going to war for reasons of ” face”, like the 1979 Punishment campaign, against Vietnam, differed significantly from the reasons that Bismarck fought the wars of German unification and the Franco-Prussian War. Even moreso the geopolitical reasoning of leading members of the Kaiser’s Grossgeneralstab like von before the Great War which were eventually exemplified in the terms of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

Germany was angling for hegemonic domination of the s Eurasian landmass by military force and German leaders felt justified by the international protectionist trading regime that was, longitudinally speaking, going to strangle Germany if the situation did not change. China, despite their current avaricious hunger for petro-resources, does not need to overcome anything remotely like the structural economic disadvantages in terms of tariffs and raw materials facing Berlin in 1914.

Quite the opposite, I’d say.

THE ARAB REFORM BULLETIN

Updates on progress and setbacks for liberalization in the ME from Carnegie via H-Democracy.

SYSTEM ADMINISTRATION IS THE PARACIVILIAN COUNTER TO 4GW[Updated]

William Lind, one of the founders of 4GW theory, explains who is getting it right in Iraq and why:

“Just as having soldiers who want to fight is important in Second and Third Generation war, so not wanting to fight is key to success in the Fourth Generation. Any fight, whether won or lost, ultimately works against an outside power that is trying to damp down a Fourth Generation conflict. Fighting ramps up disorder, and Fourth Generation entities thrive on disorder. Disorder undermines the local government’s legitimacy, because disorder proves that government cannot provide security. Fighting usually means that locals get killed, and when that happens, the relatives and friends of the casualties are then obliged to join the fight to get revenge. Violence escalates, when success requires de-escalation.

Again, cops know all this. Here we see another lesson for 4GW: Reserve and National Guard units are more valuable than regular troops. Why? Because they contain a lot of cops. Lt. Waters is not the only cop who has succeeded in Iraq. Other Guard and Reserve units have let their cops take the lead, working the same way they do back home to de-escalate violence and bring security. Like Lt. Waters, they have achieved some local successes”

Sys Admin troops are not like Leviathan soldiers – they are interactive, constabulary, constructive, pro-active, networking, defensive and integrative. They ” re-wire” broken societies through connectivity, often as basic as potable water and rudimentary medical care.

Also at Defense and the National Interest is a paper by USMC Captain Robert Kozlowski entitled ” Leadership for the Fourth Generation: Preparing to Outhink Our New Enemy” . The paper is short, just nine pages an is extremely timely, covering the need to revolutionize officer training to create an officer corps that is cognitively directed to adapt in real time to shifting circumstances.

Highly recommended.

UPDATE: The Armchair Generalist has more on innovative thinking from the Marine Corps

POSNER ON INTEL REFORM

Via a review by author/editor/blogfriend Geitner Simmons at Regions of Mind, it has come to my attention that the eminent jurist Richard Posner has a new book out on the recent reforms of the intelligence community. Judge Posner, who was called ” a genius” by the late Justice William Brennan, has influenced a generation of attorneys and judges with his libertarian theories and decisions applying economic analysis to the law. He now turns his wide-ranging intellect to a new field of analysis. ( Chances of being nominated to SCOTUS by Bush, slim and none. Too rational. Too honest. Too outspoken and too old).

For those interested, you can find a couple of extensive interviews with Posner on various topics in the audio file archives of Milt Rosenberg’s radio program, WGN Extension720

Going straight to the top of my already very steep ” must read” pile.

RECOMMENDED MSM READING

Hope everyone had a celebratory Fourth – I drove to the far, far, North Suburbs in Lake County to a BBQ where the entire tray of freshly grilled brats and dogs went flying across a kitchen. I was much amused at the time but not everyone else saw the irony.

In any event, several MSM columns for your attention:

The well-connected and very conservative Sun-Times columnist Robert Novak was granted a rare interview by Chicago Mayor Richard Daley in which Daley again blasted Illinois Senator Richard Durbin for his recent remarks on Guantanamo. Neither interviews nor conservative Republican journalists are Daley’s style so evidently Durbin’s apology did not take. The chances of Durbin facing a primary challenge are now excellent unless he manages to appease the Mayor, who has a very long memory.

Arnaud de Borchgrave, the Washington Times columnist and conservative critic of Bush GWOT policies gave Dr. Henry Kissinger a forum to relay the classic American conservative- realist/stabilitarian argument against Wilsonianism and Democracy promotion:

“For the U.S. to crusade in every part of the world to spread democracy may be beyond our capacity,” he says. The U.S. system, he explains, “is the product of unique historical experiences, difficult to duplicate or to transplant into Muslim societies where secular democracy has seldom thrived.” If ever.”

Something that could have easily been uttered by Henry Stimson – which he did – but about Eastern Europeans rather than Arabs.

Peter Lavelle, UPI, polls Russia experts and asks “ Could Russia Collapse?” . If you read nothing else, read the section where Lavelle is quoting Sergei Roy at length.

Last but not least, Bruce Kesler ( who informed me via email that he is not a conservative, as I incorrectly identified him earlier) blasts ” Armchair Warriors” not for their aggressiveness but their timidity.

That’s it.

POSTSCRIPT:

I have two book reviews in the works that I promised earlier along with a number of other posts. ” Real-life ” though mundane responsibilities are delaying me somewhat along with a surge of email, some of it rather hostile, which leads me to reiterate the following philosophy for this blog, yet again:

My linking to blog or article, in a post or blogroll does not imply an endorsement, just that I think the subject is interesting. Please stop asking me to delete – to cite several requests among many – Juan Cole or the Armageddon Project or whomever else you find objectionable. Feel free to disagree with their arguments in the comments or on your own blog, just don’t lobby me to join in your crusade. It’s my blog and I’ll link to whomever I please.