Archive for August, 2005
Monday, August 8th, 2005
TALKING TURKI TO THE SAUDIS [ UPDATED]
Trying my amateur hand at Arabist analysis:
The U.S.-Saudi alliance is not always a comfortable for either party though it remains close. The internal workings of the Saudi side, the network of the top fifty to two hundred senior princes, are opaque enough to require the same kind of tea-leaf reading skills once employed by Sovietologists during the Cold War (“…CIA analysts report a decline in the standing of the Soviet military-indusrial complex after Brezhnev was seen sneezing on Marshal Ustinov at the May Day parade…”). Moreover the decline and death of King Fahd, always weak ruler, has led to shifts within the KSA and in Saudi representation in Washington.
The new King Abdullah is a conservative who had been associated with tribal interests, Beduoin traditions and the National Guard; Abdullah is from the Rashidi branch and not the dominant Sudairi line of the senior al-Saud princes. The Rashidis had once been rivals to the al-Saud but had been defeated by King Abdul-Aziz and amalgamated into the Saudi ruling elite ( the Hashemites of the Hejaz, another rival family, were expelled and now rule in Jordan).Thirty years ago we might have called Abdullah’s religious views ” fundamentalist” but the king is not an Islamist. His power bases in the KSA have been repeatedly targeted by al Qaida while he was Crown Prince and Abdullah, in turn, forced the Saudi regime to crack down on religious militancy in KSA, allegedly over the objections of other senior al-Saud princes, notably Sultan, the Defense Minister, a Sudairi and new Crown Prince.
In Washington, the new Ambassador is Prince Turki bin Faisal, who headed Saudi intelligence for twenty-five years until resigning ( or being forced to resign) two weeks prior to 9/11, after which he became ambassador to Britain. Conspiracy theorists have made much of Turki’s timely resignation but it is equally likely that Abdullah, de facto ruler of KSA at the time, had quite enough with the Sudairis occupying all key posts in the kingdom at a time when Fahd’s longevity was in serious question.
Prince Turki, who is featured prominently in Steve Coll’s highly regarded Ghost Wars has longstanding, almost intimate connections at the very top of American political, media and intelligence circles. He is the son of the the assassinated King Faisal, the pious ruler who intiated Saudi funding of a global Wahhabi missionary outreach as a counter to the threat of Nasserism and secularism. Despite vigorous denials, Prince Turki’s ties to Islamist groups are as deep as they are to the CIA and DIA and not all of those agencies field operatives share the same enthusiasm for Turki’s appointment that their upper-level managers and political appointees do. Nevertheless, Turki remains a key figure in the Saudi hierarchy, like his younger predecessor as ambassador to the United States, Prince Bandar bin Sultan.
Both men seem likely potential candidates for very senior posts in KSA, perhaps even the throne, when the Sudairi gerontocracy passes from the scene. The Saudi monarchy at present is fratrilineal one and new monarchs are chosen by a family consensus that emerges as figures are named to the position of Crown Prince, with an effort to give due consideration to seniority, experience and the interests of various clans within the al-Saud. This is a complex and difficult to measure variable because the founder of Saudi Arabia, King Abdul Aziz, fathered many children by different wives throughout his long life. While many clans are unlikely to see a monarch from their line emerge any time soon their voices are raised and their support must be secured.
This aspect will make reforming KSA into a constitutional monarchy very difficult because the minor branches of al-Saud would be forced to give up their most effective lever of influence if a formal line of succession was to be established. The net result for the U.S. being that a period of instability seems very likely in Saudi-American relations because the internal political needs of the al-Saud are going to predominate over external diplomatic considerations
UPDATE:
From Crossroads Arabia – ” Looking down the Road“
From The Daily Demarche – ” Majesty, they are your windows to the civilized world“
Monday, August 8th, 2005
REVISITING 5th GENERATION WAR
“Limitations of 5GW” by Curtis Gale Weeks of Phatic Communion
“Secretwar(5GW)” by Dan of tdaxp
“On ‘Fifth Generation’ Warfare?” by Bryce Lane featured at Defense & The National Interest (pdf file)
My Commentary:
Nice to see the discussion progressing and new voices being added.
Bryce Lane has some thoughtful ideas in a short piece. Fans of PNM will recognize that Lane is actually discussing the phenomena Dr. Barnett calls ” System Perturbation” and ” cascading effects” in The Pentagon’s New Map and Lane correctly, in my view, discerns a resonance occurring in the action-reaction cycle as something an instigator could be aimining at in launching that kind of attack. My thoughts on the potentialities of System Perturbation attack are here and here (If you are a real glutton for Zenpundit-punishment and want Dr. Barnett’s feedback as well go here).
Also noteworthy is Lane’s assessment of the Logospheric state of 5GW conflict:
” The personal, political and psychological is no longer mediated by the geographic. The world is composed of a psychological terrain that has less and less to do with topography and national boundaries“
Indeed. Bin Laden looks at the world and sees an Ummah as an incipient Caliphate. Mullah Omar and Deobandi scholars see a greater Pushtunistan and not the Durand line. Dr. Barnett sees a Core and a Gap. Jacques Chirac sees a European superstate. Hugo Chavez dreams of a Bolivarian bloc, dominated by Venezuela and committed to statist autarky, managed trade and anti-Americanism. The list could be extended.
Turning to Curtis and Dan, they have had a thorough exchange of views but my attention was captured by this analysis by Curtis:
“The greatest weakness for a democratic society in combating 5GW — say, America — is the doctrine of “majority rule.” Those who do not participate in the system or indeed who oppose the political system also do not wield the power that has been concentrated (consecrated) at the topmost level of that majority. A 5GW force, should one of sufficient ability ever form, would only need to influence the majority and the leaders of that majority, or indeed create a majority will via stimuli such as catastrophes (“natural” or man-made), and sit back to watch the application of a force which it knows will rebound on that society.
The disenfranchised (whether by self-determination or by exterior exclusion), the subcultural or countercultural elements, the criminals and hermits of a society, are likely to be the canaries in the mine: A 5GW force will use the weight of the dominant segment(s) of society against that society and not waste effort on the seemingly powerless members of that society, and the oddball elements of a society are more likely to be sensitive to changes in the majority opinion than those who hold the majority opinion. (I’m not excluding the 5GW potential for using criminal elements and homeland terrorists against a society, however.)”
Dan responded:
“The problem with “subcultural or counter-cultural elements” to warn society about a SecretWar attack is that they will be ignored. Alex Jones, George Noory, and the rest of the 9/11 conspiracy theorists are warning us of a textbook SecretWar right now:
“When we say ‘the government’ we’re oversimplifying. There are corporate interests that are bigger than most governments that basically can steer and manipulate our government — the largest and most powerful in the world — and their goal is to expand that control over our population, to basically use us as an engine of global domination. This has been stated in major public white papers by different sectors of the elite. So when I talk about ‘the government’ engaging in different criminal activities, we’re talking about very small, clandestine groups within intelligence and security agencies — but — those small clandestine groups are up at the very top of the pyramidal power structure, and so through compartmentalization they’re able to manipulate and steer our society
“”Isn’t it also accurate, though, to say rather than ‘government,’ ‘a group of individuals who are doing something for their own sinister means’?”
“”Absolutely…. People all the time say, ‘Well, a ‘grand conspiracy with the whole government?” I’m in the government! My husband’s in the government! Are you saying they’re evil?’ Absolutely not.”
and society ignores them.
Any real SecretWar attack met with warnings that are lost in the background noise is the same as a SecretWar without warning.
My thoughts are that 5GW, at least carried out in “SecretWar” style will not be about assuming and maintaining complete control of a government because that is not economical in terms of resources or time. Coups, even silent coups are soooooooooo 3GW and it forces the players out in the open, as Dan suggested. This makes the players the return address for all aggreived parties.
No, a 5GW player is only looking to be able to influence the levers of power to act in a way that may effect the changes they desire, perhaps only indirectly, appearing as a byproduct of events or to tie up attention and resources so that some things will not happen. And when things go wrong and blowback arrives it is best for a 5GW SecretWarrior if someone else is holding the bag.
To cite an example, whenever the U.S. Congress and the chattering classes appear entranced by something that seems surreally out of context in terms of its intrinsic importance – the most recent cases were steroid use in baseball ( really, who actually is affected by multimillionaire pro athletes juicing ? Bookies ? ) and Terry Schiavo – the political class is moving through changes they do not wish the media or the public to examine closely. These distractors are “ white noise” and little else.
Go back and look what else Congress and the administration were doing at the time during those particular news cycles. This of course is not really 5GW – its American politicians who have learned that the media spotlight combined with organized interest groups and the bureaucrats of the permanent government are an ” Iron Triangle” that, when united ,can destroy elected officials, their nominees, block important reforms and impose unwanted regulations.
But this ” distractor” technique forshadows 5GW. It shapes the Logosphere and it determines the political battlespace.
Sunday, August 7th, 2005
SEVERE ELITE DISCOMFORT WITH THE TRIAL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN
Noted Arab-American academic and DePaul University international law specialist M. Cherif Bassiouni has in ” Prosecuting Saddam Hussein” of the more intellectually incoherent pieces I’ve seen in some time in the online edition of Foreign Policy magazine. It’s not that Bassiouni is without any cogent points to make so much that he is torn between his sympathy for secular Arab nationalism, fear that Bush or the U.S. may get political credit, idealization of international tribunals, condescension toward the Iraqis, human rights movement ideology, fear of strengthening Iraqi Islamism and desire to see Saddam duly punished.
That Saddam is on trial at all because of George W. Bush clearly galls Bassiouni to no end.
Saturday, August 6th, 2005
HIROSHIMA
Sixty years ago a terrible enemy who had brought death to millions in a quest for the domination of Asia and the eternal glory of their Emperor faced a retribution undreamed of when they had rolled the dice and gambled on war. The city of Hiroshima vanished in a flash of nuclear fire and the world as it had existed since the dawn of man was gone forever in an instant.
“HARRY S. TRUMAN’S ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE DROPPING OF AN ATOMIC BOMB ON HIROSHIMA
Address to the Nation, August 6, 1945
“Sixteen hours ago an American airplane dropped one bomb on Hiroshima, an important Japanese Army base. That bomb had more power than 20,000 tons of TNT. It had more than 2,000 times the blast power of the British “Grand Slam,” which is the largest bomb ever yet used in the history of warfare.
The Japanese began the war from the air at Pearl Harbor. They have been repaid manyfold. And the end is not yet. With this bomb we have now added a new and revolutionary increase in destruction to supplement the growing power of our armed forces. In their present form these bombs are now in production, and even more powerful forms are in development.
It is an atomic bomb. It is a harnessing of the basic power of the universe. The force from which the sun draws its power has been loosed against those who brought war to the Far East.
Before 1939, it was the accepted belief of scientists that it was theoretically possible to release atomic energy. But no one knew any practical method of doing it. By 1942, however, we knew that the Germans were working feverishly to find a way to add atomic energy to the other engines of war with which they hoped to enslave the world. But they failed. We may be grateful to Providence that the Germans got the V-1’s and V-2’s late and in limited quantities and even more grateful that they did not get the atomic bomb at all.
The battle of the laboratories held fateful risks for us as well as the battles of the air, land, and sea, and we have now won the battle of the laboratories as we have won the other battles
Beginning in 1940, before Pearl Harbor, scientific knowledge useful in war was pooled between the United States and Great Britain, and many priceless helps to our victories have come from that arrangement. Under that general policy the research on the atomic bomb was begun. With American and British scientists working together we entered the race of discovery against the Germans
The United States had available the large number of scientists of distinction in the many needed areas of knowledge. It had the tremendous industrial and financial resources necessary for the project, and they could be devoted to it without undue impairment of other vital war work. In the United States the laboratory work and the production plants, on which a substantial start had already been made, would be out of reach of enemy bombing, while at that time Britain was exposed to constant air attack and was still threatened with the possibility of invasion. For these reasons Prime Minister Churchill and President Roosevelt agreed that it was wise to carry on the project here
We now have two great plants and many lesser works devoted to the production of atomic power. Employment during peak construction numbered 125,000 and over 65,000 individuals are even now engaged in operating the plants. Many have worked there for two and a half years. Few know what they have been producing. They see great quantities of material going in and they see nothing coming out of these plants, for the physical size of the explosive charge is exceedingly small. We have spent $2 billion on the greatest scientific gamble in history–and won
But the greatest marvel is not the size of the enterprise, its secrecy, nor its cost, but the achievement of scientific brains in putting together infinitely complex pieces of knowledge held by many men in different fields of science into a workable plan. And hardly less marvelous has been the capacity of industry to design, and of labor to operate, the machines and methods to do things never done before so that the brainchild of many minds came forth in physical shape and performed as it was supposed to do. Both science and industry worked under the direction of the United States Army, which achieved a unique success in managing so diverse a problem in the advancement of knowledge in an amazingly short time. It is doubtful if such another combination could be got together in the world. What has been done is the greatest achievement of organized science in history. It was done under high pressure and without failure
We are now prepared to obliterate more rapidly and completely every productive enterprise the Japanese have above ground in any city. We shall destroy their docks, their factories, and their communications. Let there be no mistake; we shall completely destroy Japan’s power to make war
It was to spare the Japanese people from utter destruction that the ultimatum of July 26 was issued at Potsdam.* Their leaders promptly rejected that ultimatum. If they do not now accept our terms they may expect a rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never been seen on this earth. Behind this air attack will follow sea and land forces in such numbers and power as they have not yet seen and with the fighting skill of which they are already well aware.
The secretary of war, who has kept in personal touch with all phases of the project, will immediately make public a statement giving further details
His statement will give facts concerning the sites at Oak Ridge near Knoxville, Tennessee, and at Richland near Pasco, Washington, and an installation near Santa Fe, New Mexico. Although the workers at the sites have been making materials to be used in producing the greatest destructive force in history, they have not themselves been in danger beyond that of many other occupations, for the utmost care has been taken of their safety
The fact that we can release atomic energy ushers in a new era in man’s understanding of nature’s forces. Atomic energy may in the future supplement the power that now comes from coal, oil, and falling water, but at present it cannot be produced on a basis to compete with them commercially. Before that comes there must be a long period of intensive research
It has never been the habit of the scientists of this country or the policy of this government to withhold from the world scientific knowledge. Normally, therefore, everything about the work with atomic energy would be made public
But under present circumstances it is not intended to divulge the technical processes of production or all the military applications, pending further examination of possible methods of protecting us and the rest of the world from the danger of sudden destruction.
I shall recommend that the Congress of the United States consider promptly the establishment of an appropriate commission to control the production and use of atomic power within the United States. I shall give further consideration and make further recommendations to the Congress as to how atomic power can become a powerful and forceful influence towards the maintenance of world peace.” Harry S. Truman “
LINKS:
“Why Did the Japanese Delay Surrendering?” by Herbert Bix
“60 Years After Hiroshima, We Have the Secret Intercepts that Shaped the Decision” by Richard B. Frank
” We were Lucky After Hiroshima” by Fred Ikle
” Hiroshima Sixty Years On” by H K Dave at Simon World
“Reflections on Visiting Hiroshima” by Jodi at The Asia Pages
“The Lessons of Hiroshima” by Penraker
” Hiroshima, Catholic Bishops and Mencius” at The Useless Tree
” Atomic Bomb Emails” by Austin Bay
