zenpundit.com » 2005 » September

Archive for September, 2005

Monday, September 19th, 2005

RECOMMENDED READING

From Peter Lavelle, on the potential relationship between American oil majors, President Putin and the development of Russia’s natural gas sector; and secondly,his weekly round-up of Russian affairs experts examine the break-up of the ” Orange Revolution” coalition in Ukraine.

Former House Speaker and influential G.O.P. insider, Newt Gingrich, argues that America’s interests require ” a fundamentally limited, but honest and effective UN. “. IMHO we can manage the first, rarely the second and sometimes the third but never all three at once. Too many states with endemic incompetence and corruption use their slots in the UN bureaucracy to exile their intra-regime rivals, reward idiot relatives and enjoy the leisurely lifestyle of a diplomat in Manhattan. Not to mention the slots that more serious countries fill with professional intelligence agents who hardly can afford to make their official UN duties a priority.

Dr. Dan Nexon of The Duck of Minerva asks ” was effective opposition to the Iraq War impossible?” . My unflattering analysis as to why was roundly ignored in the comments :o)

Havery Sicherman, President of FPRI, examines ” King Fahd’s Saudi Arabia” in American Diplomacy.

Virginia Postrel of Dynamist Blog has a series of posts on the virtues and flaws of think tanks here, here, here, here and here. This outpouring was inspired by Dan Drezner’s post here.

The entire “ connectivism” concept series of posts from Connectivism Blog and the article:

Connectivism: Learning as Network-Creation

I may have to critique this last one closely in a future post.

That’s it.

Sunday, September 18th, 2005

GOOD RIDDANCE TO BAD RUBBISH[ Updated]

Bad news for Iran’s mullahs.

German voters threw out their anti-American, leftist chancellor. Schroeder was a more adamant opponent of U.S. foreign policy in a philosophical sense than Chirac ever was. With Sarkozy rising in France, prospects for closer future alignment between American and European positions on major security issues look a bit rosier.

Now would be a good time to try and cut a deal with Putin regarding orchestrated pressure on Iran over its nuclear program to offer Teheran a deal in the near future that they can’t refuse – a generous grand bargain that will fully integrate Iran into the world economy as a normal state in return for dropping terror and nuclear proliferation activities.

Or else.

UPDATE:

I may have spoken too soon.

Sunday, September 18th, 2005

GETTING OUT A MITRE BOX FOR INFORMATION ANALYSIS

Many thanks to the reader ( whom I’m not sure wishes to be identified) who emailed me the link to MITRE ‘s impressive technology symposium projects page in the wake of my post on OSINT. while I found perusing all of the presentations intriguing, I think the readers will like the following powerpoint briefs the best:

BlogINT: Weblogs as a Source of Intelligence

ARDA Information Exploitation

Sunday, September 18th, 2005

A SUGGESTION THAT FIGHTING A CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS WITH THE MUSLIM WORLD IS BEYOND THE MILITARY’S PARAMETERS – AND SHOULD BE

Parameters, the intellectually stimulating quarterly of the U.S. Army War College, has their newest issue available online and it is a good one.

A Clash of Systems: An Analytical Framework to Demystify the Radical Islamist Threat” by Andrew Harvey, Ian Sullivan, and Ralph Groves.

An interesting piece as it puts the American war against Islamism and Islamist terror networks squarely within the context of globalization and its root nature of being a political conflict whose strategic dimensions are governed by ideoogical imperatives. Explicitly rejecting the ” Clash of Civilizations” thesis of Dr. Samuel Huntington, the authors clearly align themselves with the ideas of Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett – who also rejects the ” Clash of Civilizations” paradigm in Blueprint For Action ( somewhat ironically, Barnett is a former student of Huntington’s). The authors also cite several other of the well known public intellectuals of globalization such as Francis Fukuyama and Thomas Friedman in laying out their model of a ” Clash of Systems” for the war on terror; where Islamism plays the role of violently proposing a radical alternative in terms of political economy to the liberal program of globalization and modernism:

“To Huntington’s disciples, al Qaeda’s strike on the economic and military power base of the United States clearly represents an attack by the Islamic civilization against that of the United States and the West. Such an argument is persuasive, particularly when one looks at the undercurrents of recent events in the Middle East: the ubiquitous Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the vicious campaign being conducted by foreign jihadists against US forces in Iraq, a resurgence of the Islamist ideology across Barnett’s non-integrating gap,17 enhanced violent activity perpetrated by radical Islamist groups across the region, the spread of weapons of mass destruction in the region, and cooperation between regional states and militant groups. Yet Huntington’s thesis fails to capture the true nature of the conflict that currently grips the Middle East. It is not simply a result of irreconcilable differences between Western and Islamic civilizations; it is instead a deeper clash of international systems of order—globalization vs. Islamism.

Under the current system of US-led globalization, a given state has two options—beating the system or joining it. In the Middle East, this debate is raging in an emotional and often violent manner, and it is fast becoming a battle for the soul of the Islamic world. This conflict pits two sides against each other: those who embrace the system—i.e., moderates who seek to reconcile the Islamic culture, religion, and worldview with the benefits of modernization and globalization—against those who would seek to destroy it, personified by Osama bin Laden and other extremists of his ilk, and who wish to replace it with an alternative system, in this case a world guided by the ideology of Islamism.

For Islamists, there are two main targets in their effort to bring about an Islamist system. The United States and its Western allies constitute one target. The other, perhaps more important, is the governments and elites of the states across the Middle East, who walk a narrow tightrope between accepting the dramatic benefits of the global system and heeding the wishes of the majority of the populace who receive little in the way of benefits from their own governments, let alone from the wider global system.

As a result, Islamists are fighting a two-pronged conflict. On the one hand, they have initiated a wide-reaching war against US interests and allies which includes not only direct combat against US military forces, but also attacks like those of 9/11 that target Americans and other Western civilians. Second, in the Middle East the Islamists view the acceptance of a corrupt, godless, immoral system by the civilian populace as being responsible for the Western system’s spread. Consequently Islamists are engaged in a comprehensive battle for hearts and minds.”

If this critique sounds familiar, it is. Essentially it is the analytical argument once raised by revisionist historians like Walter LaFeber and Lloyd Gardner back in the 1970’s and 1980’s in support of 3rd world Marxist guerilla movements. Except this version of the argument has authors that- correctly in my view – favor capitalist globalization and oppose the attempt by Salafist terrorists to stop it. The authors turn the moral argument of the New Left revisionists on its head while accepting major parts of the economic analysis. From that point they proceed to argue that moving the tactical conflict on terror in the direction of Huntington’s thesis, so that Muslims begin to perceive a clash of civilizations, plays to al Qaida’s strategic strengths. 4th Generation warfare theory is not invoked at this point but it could easily have been.

The article is a good example of synthesis and if the authors do not exactly propose anything strikingly new they do weave an effective meta-analysis using a preexisting but current set of powerful themes.

Friday, September 16th, 2005

A BOOK REVIEW WORTH READING

The Adventures of Chester has a wide-ranging and informative review of The Shield of Achilles:War, Peace and the Course of History by Phillip Bobbitt. After seeing the selection of topics raised by Mr. Bobbitt and elucidated by Chester – netwar, market-states, ebay-style command systems, PNM, epochal wars – and the impressive people who are themselves reading Shield of Achilles, this may be the next ” must-read” book alongside Blueprint for Action on military strategy, society and foreign policy.

I think I will pencil Border’s into my weekend schedule.


Switch to our mobile site