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Sunday, October 15th, 2006

SUNDAY’S RECOMMENDED READING

Following up, catching up and posting up:

Chirol at Coming Anarchy – “Georgia: Little Engine that Can?

Gunnar Peterson at 1 Raindrop -“Decentralization and “Good Enough” security Part 3

Dan of tdaxp – “Learning Evolved, Introduction: The Revolution Against the Standard Social Sciences Model” and ” Learning Evolved, Part I: Darwinism-Cognitivism” and “Learning Evolved, Part II: Social Motivation

Kingdaddy at Arms and Influence – “Mahan redux, sort of

Austin Bay – “the Left’s new history on missile defense

Bruce KeslerDemocracy Project-“Kissinger on Acheson: We’re Again Present At The Creation & Learning

CKR at Whirledview -“Breaking Out of the Proliferation Box

Marc at American Future -“Eugenics Is Alive and Well in North Korea

Dr. Steven Aftergood at Secrecy News -“How Do Editors Decide to Publish Classified Info?”

That’s it !

Friday, October 13th, 2006

NEW OR FAIRLY NEW TO THE BLOGROLL

Going to have to systematically review the damn thing for dead blogs and changed URLs soon and delete/fix them but in the meantime, some new voices:

1 Raindrop

Gunnar Peterson on the intersection of tech, security, distributed systems, cyberthreats and related subjects.

Qahwa Sada

A blog journal on the Middle East organized and edited by Dr. Marc Lynch a.k.a Abu Aardvark, that intends to publish posts from across the political and methodological spectrums.

Kent’s Imperative

Specialist blog on IC analytical practices, other tradecraft and literature.

Check them out and enjoy !

Friday, October 13th, 2006

CHIROL’S MICROPOWER

Chirol at Coming Anarchy artfully expands on the Micropower discussion that went down recently at Global Guerillas, also adding a visual homage to Valdis Krebs. I’m not sure Ukraine can be regarded as ” micro” given its size, population and economic potential, but I think Chirol is illustrating possible strategic behaviors for a state as much as he is categorical characteristics of micropower status.

A future discussion of geographic micropowers that are economic macropowers, like Singapore or the U.A.E. , is warranted. Small states can acquire considerable amounts of economic ” hard power” – or for that matter, illicit, ” black globalization” flows via tight bank secrecy laws or porous borders.

Thursday, October 12th, 2006

IN THE VANGUARD OF INTEL REFORM

Three worthwhile posts on the state of the IC to peruse:

Gunnar Peterson1 Raindrop – ” Decentralization and “Good Enough” Security” and “Decentralization and “Good Enough” Security (cont.)”

“There are several parallels in the challenges addressed by the DoD and the enterprise environment, and they all get back to how do you realistically deploy/manage/scale security in a large decentralized system. (hint: the answer is not centralizing security)”

Michael GroupIntel Blog -” **** or Get off the Pot (Updates)

“I don’t know why the thought didn’t come to me earlier (alcoholic blackout?) but reading this latest account of FBI fits and starts as it tries to become both an intelligence and counterterrorism agency on top of a law enforcement agency I am had to ask myself: why are we spending so much time trying to retrofit the Bureau when it is painfully clear that it does not want to be anything more than it is?

There are any number of texts explaining why the FBI can do the domestic intelligence (in the most benign sense) job and the CT job; and an equal number of arguments against those positions. So far proponents of the former have won out, but judging by the comments made by Bureau staff in the first few paragraphs of the story it seems to me that they are not much interested in doing what is necessary to fulfill intelligence and security needs. Note that they talk a good game about how they’re improving in the intelligence and CT fields, but they’ve either driven out anyone who tries to make changes or stick whatever executive short-timer they can into what is arguably one of the most important jobs in the agency. Nobody who is serious about a mission has seven bosses in five years.”

Thursday, October 12th, 2006

CREATIVITY, MASS CREATIVITY AND RESILIENCE

An interesting congruence of posts lately.

Steve DeAngelis of ERMB, who has been turning his insight to wider horizons on his blog, brought up the subject of “innovation”, a critical economic advantage of free market economies:

Scarcity, Innovation, & Resilience

“This summer, as oil prices looked like they were heading towards $80 per barrel, Stephen L. Sass, a professor of materials science and engineering at Cornell University, penned an interesting op-ed piece in the New York Times entitledScarcity, Mother of Invention[10 Aug 2006]. Sass wrote his article to calm the handwringers who see ahead of us a bleak and unhappy future….

….Sass then continued with a brief history lesson about how scarcity led to innovation.

Consider the transition from the use of bronze to iron in making tools and weapons, which occurred around the 12th century B.C. Early in the second millennium B.C., iron was known as the stuff of meteorites. It was rare and highly prized: if you wanted to give a gift to a pharaoh or a king you didn’t give a gold dagger but an iron one. But when the eastern Mediterranean fell short of tin from which to make bronze, a technological revolution occurred. Artisans learned to extract metallic iron from iron-rich materials by heating with charcoal (a process called smelting), which caused the price of iron to fall by a factor of 80,000 over 1200 years. The Iron Age had begun.

….The bottom line is that the very process of developing alternative sources of energy to replace fossil fuels may yield benefits beyond our imagining. “

Over at The Cooperation Blog, Howard Rheingold drew attention to the concept of ” Mass Creativity” in Charles Leadbeater’s upcoming book We Think:

“Immersive multi user computer games, such as Second Life, which depend on high levels of user participation and creativity are booming. Craigslist a self help approach to searching for jobs and other useful stuff is eating into the ad revenues of newspapers. Youth magazines such as Smash Hit have been overwhelmed by the rise of social networking sites such as MySpace and Bebo. What is going on? We-Think: the power of mass creativity is about what the rise of the likes of Wikipedia and Youtube, Linux and Craigslist means for the way we organise ourselves, not just in digital businesses but in schools and hospitals, cities and mainstream corporations. My argument is that these new forms of mass, creative collaboration announce the arrival of a society in which participation will be the key organising idea rather than consumption and work. People want to be players not just spectators, part of the action, not on the sidelines”

Creativity is an important aspect of resilience in the sense that when faced with a threat, deficit, setback, obstacle or stressor, a creative approach will increase the parameters of your options. Perhaps turning a serious crisis, as noted in Steve’s post, into an opportunity to secure a comparative advantage through innovation. There is considerable dispute among experts over the nature and biophysical process of creativity on an individual cognitive level. Organizations, however have always placed some value on creative talent and the premium for such abilities appears to be on the upswing.

Mass Creativity is acheived through an “open source” and interactive model of development that accelerates innovation ( thus enhancing resilience) by functioning as a creativity aggregator and meme distributor. The latter part should not be underestimated in terms of its economic importance. Insights are often generated by connection to out of field concepts that suggest analogies or parallels to vertically trained experts; this includes the use of descriptive metaphors to explain concepts that are still only partly-understood but are intuitively reasoned to be potentially viable areas of investigation. Distributing ideas on a wide-scale through an open-source model can yield wholly unrelated spin-offs that increase net economic activity and have large downstream effects.

Resilience is determined by the nature of your response.


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